NFL Betting Strategy: How to Bet on Week 11 - Richardson Un-Benched, Chiefs-Bills Preview

As we approach the final third of the NFL season, every game matters just that much more, whether you're trying to stack as many units as possible before the season ends or making a late-season push in your fantasy football leagues.

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Without further ado, let's dig into Week 11 of the NFL.  

Snip Snap, Snip Snap! Anthony Richardson Un-Benched

Can you even be "un-benched?" Is that a thing? If it wasn't before, it is now, as just two weeks after Head Coach Shane Steichen said Joe Flacco was their starter, second-yar and hopeful franchise QB Anthony Richardson is back in.

Whether or not Richardson should be the starter is up for debate. The modern NFL doesn't want to wait for a QB to develop it seems and simply thrusts their young signal-callers into the action from Day 1. The Colts season is effectively over in any realistic sense, with just a 7.5% AFC South win probability at two games back of the Texans, yet the incredibly weak AFC has them still in position for a Wild Card spot, though to what end?

Through five full games, Richardson has mustered a brutal 44.4% completion percentage, with just one game completing more than 10 passes and a paltry 57.2 QB rating, throwing for zero touchdowns in the games he won. In fact, he's only thrown a touchdown in losses. Even if he has the tools, there is simply no way to support an offensive attack in today's NFL game if you can't complete half your passes.

It's been a headache for fantasy managers who have either Michael Pittman or Josh Downs in fantasy, two very talented receivers stuck in QB purgatory. It doesn't look like that changes this week, based on our projections for the Colts' top three passcatchers vs. the Jets' 2nd-ranked passing defense.

🏈 Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets Full Betting Preview

The Battle for the AFC's No. 1 Seed 

Bengals vs. Chargers should be a good game but why the heck did the NFL not flex BILLS vs. CHIEFS into Sunday Night Football this week? Missed opportunity for the Mahomes-Allen bowl that simply never disappoints.

Regardless, one of the potential best games of the season takes place at 4:25 PM ET this Sunday as the Chiefs (9-0) travel North to face the Bills (8-2) with hopes of remaining unbeaten in 2024. 

1.5 games separate these two in the AFC standings and that could whittle down to just a half game should Buffalo emerge victorious (55.4% win probability per our model).  Allen owns a 3-1 H2H record vs. Mahomes in the regular season while Mahomes wins when it counts, with a 3-0 record vs. Allen in the playoffs.

Our preseason probabilities for the AFC's #1 seed identified value in the Chiefs, who currently occupy the top spot, with the Bills near fair odds.

Heading into the game, we currently have the Bills at a 20.6% probability to win the AFC. and reach Super Bowl LIX. They're all but a lock to win the division with as many wins than the Dolphins, Jets and Patriots combined so we're looking at January. If you think they can reach the Big Game and kill the Chiefs' dreams of a threepeat, then you can steal a little value with their best odds of +410 on FanDuel as our probability implies fair odds of +390.

🏈 Week 11 NFL Predictions for Every Game

Nico Collins Set to Return

Sidelined since exiting Week 5 early with a hamstring injury, Nico Collins was designated to return from IR before last week's game but didn't suit up. He'll practice this week and the expectation is that he'll be ready to go for Monday Night Football vs. the Cowboys.

Collins is integral to the Texans' success, especially now that they're without Stefon Diggs for the rest of the season. Since Collins' injury, C.J. Stroud has passed for 300+ yards zero times and he's gone under 200 yards in three games. Collins has caught Stroud's longest completions this season, 55 yards and 67 yards. And after winning five of their first six games, the offense has sputtered, winning just 1 of their last 4.

Fortunately, Houston has stayed afloat with a 6-4 record and in the driver's seat for the AFC South (89.9% probability), meaning only an injury to C.J. Stroud would open the door for the struggling Colts.

Before we look at our projections for the Texans passing game vs. the Cowboys in Week 11, there's a futures play worth your attention. Our model gives Houston a 9.8% probability to win the AFC and make it to Super Bowl LIX. That would be fair odds of +920. They're currently +1400 on DraftKings Sportsbook, for a +480 discrepancy and a 3.2% edge. 

With our futures look out of the way, here's what we project for Collins and Co. in the Battle of Texas (spoiler, it's good):

Nico Collins projects to be a boon for this Texans' offense, with several value props centered around his return.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 11 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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