NFL Betting Strategy: How to Bet on Week 10 - Dak Prescott Injury, 49ers Futures Bets

We're officially in the second half of the NFL season. Every game matters just that much more, whether you're trying to stack as many units as possible before the season ends or making a late-season push in your fantasy football leagues.

With the help of our Dimers Pro data that simulates every NFL game every week, we're able to identify betting opportunities, fantasy football sleeper picks and more to get an edge up on the books and leaguemates.

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Without further ado, let's dig into Week 10 of the NFL.  

DeAndre Hopkins Finds New Life in Kansas City

It's a beautiful thing to watch a player who's already been considered among the best at his position find even greater heights when a QB unlocks their full potential.

We're seeing that unfold before our very eyes, with DeAndre Hopkins now catching passes from Patrick Mahomes. 10 of them so far actually, including two for touchdowns last week.

In his second game as a Chief, Hopkins posted his largest yardage output this season (86 rec yds) and doubled his previous touchdown tally from the first six weeks. the Chiefs sorely needed a passing option after their offense just hasn't clicked this year (sign me up for an 8-0 start from a mediocre offense any day). 

Hopkins' presence has also allowed Travis Kelce to thrive, posting his two best games since the Chiefs got Nuk. Turns out it's hard to cover a pair of Pro-Bowlers catching passes from an MVP.

Here's how we project Hopkins and Kelce in Week 10 against a stout Broncos defense:

🏈 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Full Betting Preview

It's Time to Back the Bay 

The San Francisco 49ers season has not gone as planned, and it's been that way since before the year even kicked off.

Offseason contract disputes with Brandon Aiyuk, who's since torn his ACL and is out til next year and a pre-season injury to superstar RB Christian McCaffrey seemed to foreshadow the tumultuous first half this team would deal with.

All that aside, the 49ers are 4-4, tied with the Rams and just a half-game behind the NFC West leading Cardinals at 5-4. No one has wanted to run away with this division, and they might be getting Christian McCaffrey back this week.

The difference? Our model's probabilities for each team, with a whopping 51.7% division win probability for the Niners as opposed to 21.3% and 19.9% for the Cardinals and Rams, respectively.

The value on San Francisco doesn't stop there - in fact you can get an edge in each tier of the 49ers futures, from the NFC West up to the Super Bowl. Getting them at plus money when we have them over 50% is a steal and we imagine those odds will tighten up within the next week or two at most.

Odds below are from DraftKings:

• 49ers Win NFC West: 51.7% (+150)
  • Fair at -105
• 49ers win NFC: 15.7% (+600)
  • Fair at +535
• 49ers Win Super Bowl: 9.3% (+1300)
  • Fair at +975

🏈 Week 10 NFL Predictions for Every Game

Down Goes Dak

The Cowboys crumbling season continues to come apart at the seams with yet another injury, this time to QB Dak Prescott who sustained a hamstring injury in their Week 9 loss to Atlanta.

Reports are that he's likely headed to IR, which means at minimum 4 weeks until he returns. In the meantime, it'll be their longtime backup QB Cooper Rush under center. 

Rush has played well in his spot starts and when called upon for previous injuries to Dak, so it's not total disaster, but their already lackluster offense doesn't inspire much confidence.

From a long-term perspective, this solidifies the NFC East as a two-team race between the Commanders and Eagles, with Philly actually presenting value with a 69.3% division win probability and at -135 odds (57.45% implied).

Below, you'll see our projections for Dallas' skill-position players with Rush under center vs. the Eagles in Week 10.

Trade Deadline Fallout

Of course, we can't forget about the NFL Trade Deadline - teams making moves has been a staple of this column for several weeks now and this week's deadline saw a flurry of moves.

Though the biggest names were traded in the weeks leading up to Tuesday's deadline, there were a few moves that could shake up some rosters and playoff races.

We wrote about the notable moves with a column on deadline day, so be sure to check that out in detail here.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 10 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• NFL Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.