NFL Betting: How The Baker Mayfield Trade Impacts The Carolina Panthers In 2022

On Wednesday, news trickled out that Baker Mayfield, the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, was traded from the Cleveland Browns to the Carolina Panthers. The Browns, who acquired Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans earlier in the offseason, had seen enough of the former 2017 Heisman Trophy winner.

In four seasons with Cleveland, Mayfield largely struggled to find the magic that he so often provided at the University of Oklahoma. The Browns were no longer able to wait on him to take a step forward as a player, as they have a roster that is built to compete for a Super Bowl immediately.

But one man’s trash can be another man’s treasure, and the Panthers saw an opportunity to upgrade their quarterback room — for the small price of a conditional 2024 fifth-round draft pick, all while the Browns pay a portion of Mayfield’s salary.

It’s not set in stone that Mayfield will end up as the Panthers’ Week 1 starter against the Browns, but most sportsbooks moved Carolina’s win total from 5.5 to 6.5 after the trade. And quite a few actually have the number up at 7.5. That means that the oddsmakers see him taking Sam Darnold’s job right away. And if he does, there is a pretty good chance that Carolina will be a better football team than it was a year ago.

.@Panthers fans, enjoy these @BakerMayfield dimes. 🎯 pic.twitter.com/jd3dQkzEQl

— NFL (@NFL) July 6, 2022

Mayfield isn’t the type of NFL quarterback that is going to put up big numbers, but he is an effective game manager and will put Carolina’s weapons in positions to make plays — and he's also capable of hitting the open man on designer deep shots.

The Panthers have one of the best running backs in football in Christian McCaffrey, who should be a huge outlet for Mayfield as a receiver out of the backfield. Carolina also possesses an underrated group of pass catchers, as D.J. Moore, Robbie Anderson and Terrace Marshall Jr. make up a formidable trio.

If Mayfield can simply avoid turning the ball over, Carolina has a good chance to go Over that win total of 6.5 rather easily. After all, the Panthers won five games with a revolving door of below-average signal callers in 2020.

There’s also a chance that Carolina offers some sneaky upside as a potential playoff team this year, which is a bet that is offering some extremely favorable odds at the moment — Unibet actually has the team at +460 to go to the postseason.

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That would just require Mayfield turning back the clock two years, which is when he had a player grade of 81.6 on Pro Football Focus. That number would have been good for 11^th in the league if he had replicated it in 2021.

Mayfield threw for 3,563 yards with 26 touchdowns and only eight interceptions in 2020, and that was the closest he came to looking like the superstar he was in college. A significant shoulder injury then derailed his 2021 season, but the Panthers are hoping to get a glimpse of the quarterback he was before that hiccup.

The good news for Carolina is that this was the definition of a low-risk move. Either Mayfield returns to form and significantly speeds up the Panthers’ timeline, or he flames out and Carolina is right back where it started: gearing up to grab a quarterback out of a 2023 NFL Draft class that looks like it can be a special group.

The good news for Mayfield is that the Panthers will take on the Browns in Week 1. That means that, in addition to potentially being a starting quarterback again, he’ll have an immediate shot at revenge against the team that gave up on him.