NFL Predictions: Regular-Season Regression for the Dallas Cowboys?

10 days and counting!

As of Monday, August 26, we a little over one week away from the first regular-season NFL game of the 2024-25 season and the quest for Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens kick off the season with a Thursday night contest in a highly-anticipated rematch of last year's AFC Championship game which the Chiefs won 17-10. Dimers' prediction for this game is live now, and find out how to stream this game and every Week 1 matchup with a trial to NFL+ Premium as part of this new DraftKings bonus offer.

We recently launched our exclusive 2024-25 NFL Futures Betting Guide, an exclusive release for our Dimers Pro members. 

Packed with 12 different futures markets, all simulated by the cutting-edge analytics you've come to know and love on Dimers.com, this guide is something special, and we're excited to show it off. 

MORE: Week 1 NFL Predictions for Every Game

Starting today, we'll look at different aspects of the guide as we count down the days to the NFL season. Each day, we'll highlight one piece of data from our NFL Futures Betting Guide relevant to that day's countdown, from 14 down to 1. You'll find the previous insights in each subsequent article each day, as well.

Cowboys Head Coach Mike McCarthy

NFL Week 1 Countdown

• 14 Days: 49ers Most Likely to Win 14 Games
• 13 Days: AFC North Exact Order - a 13% Favorite
• 12 Days: Exact Division Order 1st/2nd
• 11 Days: Teams Averaging 11 Regular Season Wins
• 10 Days: Cowboys to Finish With 10 Wins?
• 9 Days: Lions Last to Lose?
• 8 Days: Titans a Top Candidate for Last Winless Team
• 7 Days: The Teams Least Likely To Make the Playoffs
• 6 Days: August 30, 2024
• 5 Days: August 31, 2024
• 4 Days: September 1, 2024
• 3 Days: September 2, 2024
• 2 Days: September 3, 2024
• 1 Day: September 4, 2024

Day 10 - Cowboys Most-Likely Team to Finish With Exactly 10 Wins

The Cowboys' three most-likely Win Totals

It was a long-running joke that the Cowboys would finish 8-8, particularly under HC Jason Garrett, and while our model doesn't predict them for such levels of mediocrity, there is some regression cooked into the Cowboys' projection this year.

We'll often see our model a little higher on the Cowboys than the books, like in our NFC East Division projections for example, and even though we predict them to regress from last season's 12-win campaign, we still project the over on their 9.5 win total, seeing them most often finish with 10 wins at an 18.96% probability. 

So what can we do with that information? Well, it means that our strongest result is over their 9.5 win total, so our model favors the over in that market. It also means that our fair odds for them to finish with exactly 10 wins calculates to +429, while they currently have Exactly 10 Wins available at +550 on FanDuel, a substantial 4.6% edge and a much better price than the +370 at DraftKings.

To see the exact win projections for all 32 teams from 0 wins to a perfect 17-0, join Dimers Pro for less than $1/day and get the full Futures Guide!

What's in the Dimers Pro NFL Futures Betting Guide?

As mentioned, we've compiled a dozen unique markets, each with a different angle. Some are season-long, while others could result in wins in the early weeks or midseason. Below, we'll highlight some of the offerings you'll find in the guide:

• Team Season Win Totals O/U
• Exact Team Season Wins from 0 to 17
• Make/Miss Playoffs
• Super Bowl Finalists
• No. 1 Overall Seed in AFC & NFC
• Exact Division order Top 2

For a full list of the markets available in the Futures Guide, read our NFL Futures Betting Guide preview.

How to Get the Guide

Getting our 2024-25 NFL Futures Betting Guide is easy - simply sign up for Dimers Pro (less than $1/day) and it's yours!

And if you're in a state where BetMGM Sportsbook is operational, then you can score 3 free months of Dimers Pro when you sign up at the book and bet just $10. Learn more about this exclusive offer here.

NFL 2024-25 Betting News and Resources:

Dimers is your go-to resource for all things this upcoming NFL season:

• 2024-25 Preseason Preview: Dimers' early looks at Win Totals and Playoff odds
• NFL Week 1 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 1 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Dimers and Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.