NFL Best Bets Today: Favorite Picks for the Week 5 Late Games on Sunday, October 9, 2022

We're coming off a week in which we went 4-1 with our NFL best bets, so you might not want to miss out on our favorite picks for Week 5. This column will be specifically focusing on the games that start after 4:00PM ET, so buckle up and let's get some winners in before the Sunday Night Football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens! 

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NFL Best Bets Today: Favorite Picks for the Week 5 Late Games on Sunday, October 9, 2022

San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers - 4:05PM ET

We've built up enough of a bankroll already to warrant buying a point, so we're doing that with the Panthers. While we like Carolina to cover the actual spread in this one, we feel much better about playing this with Baker Mayfield and Co. getting a little over a touchdown. But really, we wouldn't be all that shocked if the Panthers ended up winning this game outright. 

The 49ers are a very good football team and it wouldn't be surprising if they went on to do huge things this season. But Jimmy Garoppolo has not looked very comfortable under center this season, with the veteran having thrown for just one touchdown across three appearances this year. He just doesn't have much upside as a quarterback, but he also makes more mistakes than your average game manager. Against a Panthers defense that actually has quite a bit of talent, we can see him struggling on the road. 

San Francisco has also struggled in games like these under Kyle Shanahan, as the 49ers are just 4-6 straight-up and 3-7 against the spread when facing teams that have winning percentages of 25% or worse in that time. Perhaps Shanahan doesn't know how to motivate his players outside of big games? We're not exactly sure what it is, but it's a pretty noteworthy trend and we're playing the underdog here. 

PICK: Panthers +7.5 (-138 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals - 4:25PM ET

People love to rip on Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury and he undoubtedly has some big flaws. But one thing he has been rather good at since arriving in the NFL is motivating his team as an underdog. The Cardinals are 20-10-1 ATS when playing as underdogs under Kingsbury, and they're also 9-6 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when getting between 3.5 and 9.5 points in that span. 

It should also be mentioned that Arizona is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS versus NFC East opponents under Kingsbury, and that's why we're not shying away from the Cardinals here — even against the undefeated Eagles. Philadelphia is obviously a very good football team, but this squad is due for a loss in the near future and it could easily come here.

The Cardinals have won two of their last three games, and Kyler Murray and Co. should be able to keep pace with Jalen Hurts and an explosive Eagles offense. It's also never easy making a trip across the country, which puts Philadelphia at a disadvantage. 

We expect this to be one of the best games of the day, with it potentially coming down to the final possession. With that said, we think the Cardinals are getting too many points at home. We view this as a winnable game for Arizona. 

PICK: Cardinals +5.5 (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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