NFL Best Bets Today: Favorite Picks for the Week 5 Early Games on Sunday, October 9, 2022

Our NFL best bets are 16-3 since the start of the year and we're hoping to keep it rolling with some wins in Week 5. These are the games that will kick off at approximately 1:00PM ET on Sunday, October 9, so join us as we try to stay hot this weekend. 

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NFL Best Bets Today: Favorite Picks for the Week 5 Early Games on Sunday, October 9, 2022

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets - 1:00PM ET

Tua Tagovailoa is out for the Dolphins on Sunday — and really shouldn't have played his last 1.5 games — and that clearly has people feeling pretty down on Miami. But the Dolphins have one of the best backups in football, with Teddy Bridgewater having been a starter in the NFL as recently as last year.

Bridgewater doesn't have the biggest arm in the world, but neither does Tua. The 29-year-old is still an accurate passer and can effectively manage an offense. And quite frankly, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle create so much separation for themselves that we can see Bridgewater connecting on some deep shots, too. 

The Dolphins are just a much more talented team than the Jets right now, and they have dominated this head-to-head series in recent years. Since the start of 2018, Miami is 8-1 straight-up and 7-1-1 ATS versus New York. We just don't see that changing with the Dolphins now having an elite offensive mind running the team. Mike McDaniel should be able to scheme up some big plays for the Dolphins offense to take advantage of a solid Jets defense. And Miami's defense likely won't get torched by Zach Wilson and the New York offense. 

It also has to be noted that the Dolphins played last Thursday, which means they've had an extra couple of days to prepare for this one. 

PICK: Dolphins -3 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1:00PM ET

Maybe it's time for the oddsmakers to start giving the Falcons a little more respect? Sure, this isn't a team with a Super Bowl in its future, but Atlanta is 4-0 ATS this season. And the Falcons are also 2-2 overall, much to the surprise of many. This is clearly a competitive football team at this point in time, which makes it a bit surprising that they're a double-digit underdog against a Buccaneers team that looked miserable against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. 

Atlanta will be without some key players in this game, with both Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts slated to miss this one. However, the Falcons have a good offensive head coach in Arthur Smith. He'll find a way to get his team ready for this one, and that could include a heavier dose of rookies Drake London and Tyler Allgeier. Both players have looked excellent at times this season, so it wouldn't be surprising to see them doing some damage here. 

The Buccaneers probably aren't at risk of losing this game outright, but it's just hard to figure out why they're worthy of being this big of a favorite — especially with how banged up they've been to start the year. The Falcons are also 11-7-1 ATS in road games over the last three years. 

PICK: Falcons +10 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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