NFL Best Bets: Favorite Plays for the Late Games on Sunday, September 25, 2022

We're coming off a week in which we went 5-0 with our NFL best bets, so you might not want to miss out on our favorite picks for Week 3. This column will be specifically focusing on the games that start after 4:00PM ET, so buckle up and let's get some winners in before the Sunday Night Football game between the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos! 

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Best Bets for the Late Games on Sunday, September 25, 2022

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers - 4:05PM ET

The Chargers were favored by nearly a touchdown when this line opened and now it's all the way down to just about a field goal. What that means is that Los Angeles star Justin Herbert will either miss this game or play at nowhere close to 100% health, as the young quarterback has a rib cartilage fracture that is really bothering him. Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks on the planet and he is the center of everything the Chargers do. 

If Herbert isn't out there in this game, the Jaguars have a legitimate chance of going into L.A. and winning outright. This Jacksonville team is a lot better than it was a year ago, and last week's 24-0 win over the Indianapolis Colts served as something of a coming out party for Doug Pederson's team. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence looks a lot better under center for the Jaguars, who also have an excellent 1-2 punch at running back in James Robinson and Travis Etienne. Jacksonville also has a pretty solid defense, headlined by a pass-rushing menace in Josh Allen. 

Even if Herbert does end up playing this game, we don't see him being as mobile or comfortable throwing down the field. With that said, we'd be pretty high on the Jaguars' chances of keeping this close. 

Oddly enough, the Chargers are 3-8 straight-up and 3-7-1 against the spread when coming off a game in which they gained 300 or more passing yards. They're also 0-4 ATS when coming off a loss by seven or less points against a division rival. That game against the Kansas City Chiefs might have taken a lot out of this Los Angeles group.

We just see some real value in backing a feisty Jaguars team that is full of confidence against a banged-up Chargers group. 

PICK: Jaguars +3.5 vs. Chargers (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks - 4:25PM ET

While Atlanta hasn't yet won a game this season, the team is 2-0 ATS and has been a lot more competitive than people expected heading into the year. Now, the Falcons have to feel really good about their chances of beating a Seahawks team that might actually be the worst in the NFL. 

People were pretty quick to react to the Seahawks beating the Denver Broncos in their first game of the year, but that's a victory that looks less impressive by the day. And all in all, there might not be a team with a more predictable offense than Seattle right now. The Seahawks only throw the ball beyond the sticks when plays break down and quarterback Geno Smith can find his receivers against busted coverages. Outside of that, the team is either running the ball when everybody in the stadium knows it or having Smith throw short of the marker. 

With all of that said, it'd be pretty rough for Atlanta if the team can't find a way to slow down the Seattle offense. But what we do know is that the Falcons have the ability to score the football, even with Marcus Mariota as their quarterback. Atlanta is averaging 26.5 points per game this year and the team hasn't even found a way to get star tight end Kyle Pitts going just yet. This could be the game that happens and we just think the wrong team is favored in this one. 

Since Arthur Smith became the head coach of the Falcons, Atlanta is 5-2 both straight-up and ATS when playing in games with a line of +3 to -3. Atlanta is also 6-3-1 ATS on the road since Smith became the team's coach. 

PICK: Falcons +1 vs. Seahawks (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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