NFL Best Bets: Favorite Plays for the Early Games on Sunday, September 25, 2022

We're 9-1 with our NFL best bets since the start of the season and our goal is to stay hot with our picks as we tackle the early slate in Week 3. These are the games that will kick off at approximately 1:00PM ET on Sunday, September 25, so join us as we look to continue winning at a high clip. 

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Best Bets for the Early Games on Sunday, September 25, 2022

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts - 1:00PM ET

We wrote this game up earlier in the week and suggested backing the Colts at +7, but we still like Indianapolis to get the job done as a 6-point underdog. The Colts are 16-7 against the spread when coming off a division game under head coach Frank Reich and they have won those games by an average of 4.5 points per game. Indianapolis is also 9-4 ATS when playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since Reich took over, which shows you that this is a group that plays well when least expected. 

The Colts also happen to be 7-1 ATS when coming off an upset loss, so we expect this team to bounce back from a really poor outing against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Indianapolis will do that by trying to muck this game up. Look for the Colts to really pound the rock with Jonathan Taylor, as that'll tire out the Chiefs defense and kill the clock a bit. That will also serve the purpose of keeping Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense off the field for long stretches, which could make it hard on the group to get into a rhythm. And if the Colts are running the ball effectively, Matt Ryan's job will become a lot easier.

It also appears that Michael Pittman Jr. could be returning from his injury to play in this game. That will also make things quite simple on Ryan, who will simply have to throw the ball in Pittman's direction and allow him to use his big body to box out defenders and reel it in. 

This is just a game in which it's hard to imagine Indianapolis not keeping it close, especially with it being a home opener. The Colts will be fired up to be playing in front of a wild fanbase and we wouldn't even be surprised if they won this game outright. Perhaps it's worth throwing a quarter-unit or so on the moneyline? 

PICK: Colts +6 vs. Chiefs (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets - 1:00PM ET

We had the Jets to cover against the Cleveland Browns last week and they ended up miraculously winning the game outright. We're not quite sure New York will be able to do the same against Cincinnati, but we are expecting another close battle. While the Bengals have every reason to treat this as a must-win game — and probably will be doing just that — it's hard to trust their offensive line to hold up here. 

For as many weaknesses as the Jets might have right now, the strength of their defensive line and ability to get after opposing quarterbacks really isn't one of them. New York should be able to make Joe Burrow rather uncomfortable in this game, and the team should also be able to do a nice job of making life on running back Joe Mixon difficult. The Jets completely shut down the Ravens rushing attack in Week 1, and the Bengals ground game isn't nearly as good as the Browns one that shredded New York in Week 2. 

It also doesn't hurt that the Jets offense is brimming with confidence right now. Joe Flacco looks like he is having the time of his life running the show for New York, and rookie wideout Garrett Wilson looks like a future star. We expect the Jets to do a decent job of moving the football in this game and we just can't see this one getting completely out of hand. Let's not forget that mighty Mike White led New York to a win over Cincinnati last year, and that Bengals team was a lot better than this one. 

PICK: Jets +6 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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