NFL Best Bets: Favorite Plays for the Early Games on Sunday, October 2, 2022

Our NFL best bets are 12-2 since the start of the year and we're hoping to earn some more wins in Week 4. These are the games that will kick off at approximately 1:00PM ET on Sunday, October 2, so join us as we try to stay hot this weekend. 

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Best Bets for the Early Games on Sunday, October 2, 2022

Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons - 1:00PM ET

The Falcons might be 1-2 on the season, but they're 3-0 against the spread. This has been a competitive football team right from the jump, and the fact that they put a scare into the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams in Week 2 says a lot about the job that Arthur Smith is doing. This is very much a team that is capable of beating decent opponents — especially at home — and we think Atlanta will get the job done against Cleveland this week. 

The Browns might be 2-1 on the year, but we're still not buying into their Deshaun Watson-less offense. Jacoby Brissett has looked solid as a short-term option for Cleveland, but it is a little hard to envision him going out and helping his team keep pace with a Falcons offense that is sneaky explosive. 

Cordarrelle Patterson is listed as questionable for Atlanta in this game, and it'd be a big blow if he's unable to go for the Falcons. However, the team still has weapons like Kyle Pitts and Drake London in the receiving game, and rookie running back Tyler Allgeier is capable of being effective between the tackles if forced into increased action. Also, Marcus Mariota should have time to stand in the pocket in this game, as Myles Garrett appears unlikely to play after having been in a single-car accident earlier in the week. And even if he does play, he won't quite be himself. 

The Browns are just not a team that we trust right now, even with their elite running back duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Since Kevin Stefanski became Cleveland's head coach, the team is 1-3 against the spread as a road favorite. The Browns are also just 1-7 ATS when facing teams that allow at least 6.0 yards per play under Stefanski, which shows they haven't been able to take advantage of match-ups with bad defenses. 

PICK: Falcons +1.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles - 1:00PM ET

The Jaguars showed the world that they aren't playing around last week, as Doug Pederson's squad went into Los Angeles and beat up on the Chargers. Jacksonville has now allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in all three of its games this season and that's something you have to like heading into a meeting with a Philadelphia team that can really run the football. 

If the Jags can slow down Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders and the rest of this running game, it's hard to see them losing by more than a touchdown. Hurts has the Philadelphia passing game firing on all cylinders right now, but Jacksonville should be able to do a decent job of preventing big plays in this one. And anything that Hurts and Co. can do could potentially be matched by a Jaguars offense that is also rolling right now. 

Not only has Trevor Lawrence looked great in his second year in the league, but Jacksonville also has an outstanding running back duo in James Robinson and Travis Etienne. We see those two making a lot of plays in this game, which will serve two purposes: helping the Jaguars move the ball and helping to keep the clock running. If Jacksonville runs as well as it has early in the season, it's just impossible to see how this game will completely get away. 

Pederson will also be eager for the Jaguars to potentially win this game in Philadelphia, as the Eagles fired him after he delivered a Super Bowl to the fans in that city. That has surely stuck with him over the years and his new players will want to win it for him — especially after he came in and allowed them to taste winning a year after Urban Meyer's disastrous season in Florida. 

PICK: Jaguars +7.5 (-140 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions - 1:00PM ET

The Lions are going to be missing some offensive firepower in this meeting with the Seahawks, with Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift both sidelined for this one. However, as crazy as it might sound to say this about Detroit, this offense can withstand the loss of some key pieces.

The Lions lead the league in explosive plays this season and still have some capable pass catchers for Jared Goff to get the ball to. Also, Jamaal Williams is perfectly capable of handling a full workload in the running game — he has already rushed for 168 yards and four touchdowns this season. Detroit also gets to go up against a Seattle defense that had trouble stopping Atlanta last week. 

On the flip side, while we do expect the Lions to win this game, the Seahawks should be able to move the ball against the Detroit defense. The Lions have arguably the worst defense in the league, and quarterback Geno Smith has proven himself to be a decent facilitator for the Seahawks thus far. 

This just has the potential to be a high-scoring game, even if it might not be one that many football fans will be dying to watch. That's why we're rolling with the Over. Our DimersBOT also has a small lean on the Over here. 

PICK: Over 47.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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