NFL 2023: DraftKings Sportsbook's Up 10 Early Promo

To sweeten the deal even further, DraftKings actually extended this offer to Thursday's season opener, where the defending champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, went down by a single point to the Detroit Lions, giving bettors even more value for their NFL picks. You see, for TNF exclusively, the promo required only a seven-point lead for either team to score bettors an early cash out, and guess what? BOTH teams, yes, both teams held 7 points leads at various stages throughout the game. This saw bettors of both the Chiefs and the Lions cash their moneyline bets before the game had even finished! If not for this promo, only Lions ML bettors would've cashed.

Now, to unlock the promo on Sunday, all new and existing DKs users have to do is make a moneyline wager. Max bets vary but everyone should have at least a $25 max on the "Up 10" promo. If the team you bet on goes up by 10, they will have their bet paid out as a winner instantly.

Last year, I decided to analyze which teams might be the best picks. The primary aim was to determine whether favorites or underdogs were the more favorable choice based upon previous seasons’ data.

Not a DraftKings Sportsbook user and want to take advantage of this promo this weekend? You can sign up to DraftKings Sportsbook below and join in the fun, plus claim $200 in bonus bets when you make a $5 moneyline bet on Week 1 action.

The findings were crystal clear: underdogs were the better play. When applying the Up 10 promo, teams with records below .500 saw a substantial increase in their win probability, approximately 8.4%. In contrast, teams at or above .500 experienced a more modest 5.5% probability boost.

This year, I have added the Up 7 promo calculations taken from the same dataset (all NFL games from 2009 to 2018) which are unsurprisingly significantly more impactful thanks to only needing a one TD lead. Teams who were below .500 saw a 16.5% increase in their win probability when applying the Up 7 promo while teams above .500 saw a 12.6% win probability increase when applying the promo.

When thinking about an EV approximation for our bet with the promo let’s take the Lions +210 play for the Thursday night game as an example. We will say the fair odds were about +225 (Lions win 30.7% of the time) and increase their win probability by 16.5% we now get fair odds of +112(47.2%). The EV of +210 vs +111 would be =(210-112)*.472 = 46.25% or $11.56 expected winnings on a $25 bet.

MORE: Get the best parlay bets today

The correlation between a team’s record and how often they blew 10 point leads was 0.35. Teams that struggled statistically significantly benefited the most from this promotion.

Other less important factors for picking which team to go with are:

• Higher Over/Under games - easier to obtain and blow leads in higher scoring games
• Lines that are favorable to other books - always impactful when choosing bets for a promotion. 

My plays for Week 1 are:

CASHED: Up 7 Early on Thursday night: Lions +210. The odds have gone down since I originally posted this on Twitter with news of the potential Kelce injury, but it's still a worthwhile bet for an offense that was able to ignite several times last season.

Up 10 Early on Sunday: Texans +380. Reasoning for the longshot texans is pretty simple. They are the biggest underdog. Other good options if you want to go for a more likely win would be Dolphins +140 (good # and high total), Colts +195 (good number, decent underdog and total).

If you're looking for more plays to use this offer, head to the Dimers NFL hub now where you'll find NFL best bets and NFL player props to guide you through the Week 1 action.