NFC South Betting Preview - Division Winner Odds, Win Totals and Team Outlooks

Can you feel it? The 2023-24 NFL season is inching closer by the day. As of this writing, we are now just weeks away from kickoff between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions on Thursday, September 7. We can’t wait to dive into betting on this season, from parlays and futures to TD round Robins and more, this year has potential to be our best yet.

Full-fledged preseason is here. This is where we’ll see who cracks the roster bubble, shaping the final outlook for each team and finalizing the player pools from which we’ll be drafting our fantasy squads. We even get to watch Aaron Rodgers and Co. on Hard Knocks this year, which is proving to be top-quality entertainment.

In order to fully prep for the wealth of betting opportunities we’ll have this season, we’ve analyzed each of the eight NFL divisions. Combining our cutting-edge predictive analytics model with our own know-how, we look at key offseason moves, the outlook for each team as predicted by DimersBOT and even some futures bets with value worth jumping on now.

MORE: Three Early NFL Futures Bets to Make Now

Before we get started, we have to recommend that you head over to our revamped Best Sportsbooks section which features an all-new user-friendly look, complete with in-depth reviews of every online sportsbook. Even better, you’ll be able to see which books are available to you specifically along with every exclusive promo offer you can take advantage of.

The NFL is far and away the most popular sport in the United States for betting and there are countless daily and weekly promotions throughout the season. Having access to every possible book you can is crucial to turning a long-term profit over the season and beyond.

NFL Divisional Previews

AFC East | AFC West | AFC South | AFC North

NFC East | NFC North | NFC West | NFC South

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

NFC South Division Preview

TEAM	ODDS TO WIN DIVISION	PROBABILITY
NO Saints	+130	46.5%
ATL Falcons	+215	31.8%
CAR Panthers	+400	15.5%
TB Buccaneers	+800	6.3%

New Orleans Saints

2022-23 Record: 7-10, 3^rd place in NFC South

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Key Offseason Moves: Signed: QB Derek Carr, RB Jamaal Williams, TE Foster Moreau. Lost: EDGE Marcus Davenport, LB Kaden Elliss. Hired DC Joe Woods.

Outlook: It’s a bit of a new-look version of the Saints, though in reality, it feels more like the first of several bridge seasons for the franchise. Struggling to find any semblance of competent QB play since Drew Brees rode off into the sunset, the Saints enlisted QB Derek Carr to bring them back to postseason heights after realizing smashing Taysom Hill under center in between Andy Dalton snaps wasn’t going to produce wins. Alvin Kamara will serve a three-game suspension to start the season after a bar brawl last year, while Michael Thomas’ return to the field is still up in the air after playing just 10 games since his record-setting 2019 season.

DimersBOT calculates a 46.5% chance of New Orleans securing the NFC South title this year and at odds of +130, that’s a small edge of about 3%. This presents value on its own, though if you’re looking for some longer plus-money odds, we’ll touch on that in a few. In the NFC is where things get more interesting, with the Saints actually getting the fourth-highest probability per our model at 8%. This comes with another edge of about 3% with their best odds at +1700. The NFC is generally very weak, with barely 7 playoff-tier teams, making this a decent play ahead of the season’s start.

This is the second-tightest division in terms of probabilities based on our model. We’ll be diving more deeply into the other three teams below, but for now let’s look at how the Saints can provide some longer odds value this season.

Takeaway: Diving into their win totals markets, we see their line at 9.5 is juiced to the Under at -125. Our model gives New Orleans a slim chance over 50% to hit the Over, however, we give them a 17.5% chance of exactly 10 wins (+500) and a 16.6% chance of exactly 9 (+600).

Now if you’re backing the Saints to do well this season, there’s an early market to consider. New Orleans is +2500 to be the NFL’s last undefeated team. They open their season against the Titans, Panthers, Packers, Bucs, Patriots and Texans. It’s not a cupcake schedule, but 6-0 is totally within the realm of possibility given these opponents, and if they make it to 4-0, you can hedge with the next two games individually. This is a sprinkle at best, but it’s a play on value.

Another one worth a look is the Saints to be the most improved team at +850. They’re one of the more talented rosters near the top of this market and if you’re already backing their over, they have a 24.6% chance to finish with either 11 or 12 wins, and a 4 or 5-game improvement would probably get this done.

If you want to fade the Saints, the value isn’t quite as great but +380 for to repeat as 3^rd place in the NFC South, and exactly 7 wins (8.9% probability at +850) or exactly 8 wins (13.4% probability at +700) are where to start.

MORE: Best Odds for Every NFL Game

Atlanta Falcons

2022 Record: 7-10, 4^th place in NFC South

2023 Win Total: O/U 8.5

Key Offseason Moves: Drafted: RB Bijan Robinson. Signed: S Jessie Bates III, DI Calais Campbell.

Outlook: The Falcons began their post-Matt Ryan journey by giving Marcus Mariota a try under center. Mariota passed for 2,219 yards, 15 touchdowns and 9 interceptions through 13 games, showing the Falcons sorely needed a jolt at QB. They turned to rookie QB Desmond Ridder who looked the part of rookie QB, compiling 708 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns. The upside of the Falcons will rest on the play of Desmond Ridder, but this feels like a team that is pretty locked into a particular range of outcomes. Likely the second-best team in the division (though another strong offseason could propel them to the top), their path to an NFC South title rests more on the Saints’ shortcomings than the Falcons stepping up given their inexperienced QB yet easy schedule (more on that later).

On the other side of the coin, this is a talented roster on defense and should have one of the better rushing offenses in the league this season. Combined with the tandem of Drake London and Kyle Pitts (please break out this year, Kyle), the team is built to win about half their games in a normal season.

In the division, our model gives the Falcons a 31.8% chance of winning, but at their odds of +215, you’re not getting any value. In the conference, the Falcons are +2800 to win the NFC Championship but have just a 3.8% chance from our model. For reference, the Rams also have a 3.8% chance but are at +4500.

Takeaway: Looking beyond the division for some betting value, we see the Over 8.5 is juiced to -120. This is incredibly interesting, because with the books’ line for the Saints, they have them both landing on 9 wins, yet the Saints are favored in the division (though both are plus money). This means we can get some similar results for better odds.

We have the Falcons at a 25.5% chance of finishing with exactly 8 or 9 wins, and you can get both of those results individually for +550. On paper, the Falcons’ toughest three games are likely against the Jaguars, Lions and Jets. That’s worth keeping in mind when considering your win totals bets.

Bijan Robinson is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year at +275 but we would stay from this because A) rookie RBs are susceptible to slow starts and injuries and B) it’s simply not a good enough price for an awards future. Hell, Patrick Mahomes is +700 to win MVP and that feels like more of a lock. If you do want an award, Arthur Smith to win Coach of the Year is worth a look at +1400. A division title could bring this home, and it’s way better than the +215 for that.

Here’s a longshot for you: Atlanta’s home games this year are CAR, GB, HOU, WSH, MIN, NO, TB and IND. The Vikings are the only team from that bunch to have a winning record last season. The Falcons are +5000 to have a perfect record at home. For a couple bucks, why not?

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Carolina Panthers

2022 Record: 7-10, 2^nd place in NFC South

2023 Win Total: O/U 7.5

Key Offseason Moves: Hired HC Frank Reich. Drafted QB Bryce Young. Traded away WR DJ Moore. Signed WR Adam Thielen, WR D.J. Chark, RB Miles Sanders.

Outlook: The Matt Rhule era in Carolina ended about as soon as it began, or at least it felt that way with the writing on the wall well before Rhule officially got the axe after a 1-4 start last season. They immediately set their sights on the future, ultimately trading away franchise RB Christian McCaffery to the 49ers and sending DJ Moore to the Bears in exchange for the No. 1 overall pick, which they used to select the latest Alabama QB product, Bryce Young.

Frank Reich was brought in after being booted out the door by the Colts to steer the direction of this new-look Panthers team. In what should be a relatively competitive division, the Panthers get a 15.5% chance at +400, which is about a negative 5% edge as their odds imply a 20% chance. We give them just a 2.5% chance of winning the NFC.

Takeaway: Their win total is -120 to go Over 7.5, which is about in line with our projections’ most likely record of 8-9 for the Panthers. In the exact wins market, our two most common results are 8 (+600) and 9 (+700) making strong value there if you believe they eclipse their 7.5 line. Interestingly, the books have their Over 7.5 favored, but the two shortest odds for exact wins are 6 and 7, +550 for each.

If you’re more on the fade train for Carolina, the last winless team at +1700 is pretty appealing when you look at their schedule. In the first six weeks, they play ATL, NO, SEA, MIN, DET and MIA. Even better, they have a bye in Week 7, meaning any other potential winless team has a chance to get a win while Carolina is off. They finally get the Texans in Week 8, but that’s a tough stretch for a rebuilding team with a rookie QB and spotty o-line.

Bryce Young to win Rookie of the Year is worth a look if you’re particularly high on his prospects at +500. It’s been four years since an RB won the award and the +275 for Bijan Robinson feels a little iffy for a player who hasn’t played a down of pro football yet.

RELATED: AFC South Division Preview

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2022 Record: 8-9, lost in Divisional Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Key Offseason Moves: Retired: QB Tom Brady. Hired OC Dave Canales. Resigned S Jamel Dean, LB Lavonte David.

Outlook: Yes, you are reading that correctly, in case you don’t remember. The Bucs finished under .500 and made the playoffs. Disgraceful. After an uneventful end to the storied career that belongs to Tom Brady, the Bucs now turn to none other than the flag planter himself, Baker Mayfield to guide them through the treacherous waters that will be the Bucs’ 2023 season. Aside from a 2020 season in which Mayfield somehow guided the Browns to an 11-5 record and a playoff appearance, he’s never led a team to a winning record. The Bucs looked lost and disjointed with Tom Brady under center last year. Don’t expect things to change with Mayfield, who’s entered the “attempting reclamation” period of his career.

The Buccaneers get a 6.3% chance to win the NFC South but their laughable price of +800 implies nearly double those chances. They have less than a 1% chance from our model to win either the NFC or Super Bowl, which well yeah, duh.

Takeaway: The Bucs have a brutal start to the season, with games against MIN, PHI, NO, DET and BUF in the first seven weeks, and an early bye which will hurt them down the line. We give them a 25% chance to finish with exactly 4 (+600) or 5 (+550) wins. They’re a great bet at +700 to have the fewest wins in the league, as our model projects them with a 6-10 record at best. For the same reasons, including the difficult start, they’re also a great value at +1100 to be the last winless team. Those are just the second-shortest odds.

For a player prop with excellent value, consider Baker Mayfield to lead the league in interceptions at a meaty +4000. He was second in the league in 2021 with 21 INT (30 from Jameis Winston) and tied for third in the league in 2018. If he plays a full season, this is very much in the cards.

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Get a head start on your NFL wagers with our full slate of NFL tools, all powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics models known as ‘DimersBOT!’ We run 1000s of simulations for every game all season long to help identify where the books are mispricing their odds, all to help you turn a profit.

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