NFC North Betting Preview - Division Winner Odds, Win Totals and Team Outlooks

Can you feel it? The 2023-24 NFL season is inching closer by the day. As of this writing, we are now just weeks away from kickoff between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions on Thursday, September 7. We can’t wait to dive into betting on this season, from parlays and futures to TD round Robins and more, this year has potential to be our best yet.

Full-fledged preseason is here. This is where we’ll see who cracks the roster bubble, shaping the final outlook for each team and finalizing the player pools from which we’ll be drafting our fantasy squads. We even get to watch Aaron Rodgers and Co. on Hard Knocks this year, which is proving to be top-quality entertainment.

In order to fully prep for the wealth of betting opportunities we’ll have this season, we’ve analyzed each of the eight NFL divisions. Combining our cutting-edge predictive analytics model with our own know-how, we look at key offseason moves, the outlook for each team as predicted by DimersBOT and even some futures bets with value worth jumping on now.

MORE: Three Early NFL Futures Bets to Make Now

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NFL Divisional Previews

AFC East | AFC West | AFC South | AFC North

NFC East | NFC North | NFC West | NFC South

NFC North Division Preview

Detroit Lions

2022-23 Record: 9-8

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Key Offseason Moves: Drafted: RB Jahmyr Gibbs and LB Jack Campbell. Signed RB David Montgomery, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. 

Outlook: The Lions surprised everyone last season, emerging as a legitimate NFC contender and performing like one of the best teams in all of football during the back half of the season. Their hot run culminated in a statement win in Green Bay, effectively ending Aaron Rodgers' Packers career and for the first time in over a decade, making the NFC North divisional race wide open.

Detroit doubled down on Jared Goff this offseason by surrounding him with talent - adding Alabama back Jahmyr Gibbs, who has drawn comparisons to Alvin Kamara, and Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta after trading TJ Hockenson last year. Detroit also bolstered the defense with Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley all joining the team this offseason.

Takeaway: Expect the Lions to take a significant jump in 2023-2024. They’re favored to win the NFC North at -145 and at a 36% chance to do so from DimersBOT, you’re getting one of the best value bets on the board. Depending on where you stand, this is either a good play at value now, or worth waiting on in the hopes that you can get them at plus odds if they stumble early in the season.

If you think the Lions can repeat their second half of last season success, there may be some value betting Detroit to do even more than win the division. The Lions are DimersBOT's 5th most likely NFC champion, with a 6.45 probability of making the Super Bowl. At +1000 odds, this may be the right time to bet it if the Lions are for real.

If you want to go big, you can bet the Lions to win the Super Bowl at +2200 odds, but we wouldn't recommend it just yet. The Lions are just the 12th most likely champ according to DimersBOT, and there's better value elsewhere.

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Minnesota Vikings

2022 Record: 13-5, lost in Wildcard Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 8.5

Key Offseason Moves: Cut: RB Dalvin Cook. Drafted: WR Jordan Addison. Signed: ED Marcus Davenport, RB Alexander Mattison

Outlook: With Kirk Cousins' new "Quarterback"-found fame, it would surprise nobody to see the Vikings atop this division at the end of the NFL season. I mean with all due respect...are you really telling me the NFC North runs through the Detroit Lions? Minnesota has been a constant staple of consistency during the Cousins era, and we know what to expect from this team. They will contend for this division, and likely not much more come the playoffs.

However, there have been some moves that are causes for concern this offseason for Minnesota. The Vikes let Dalvin Cook depart, making Alexander Mattison their new starter in the backfield, and while Mattison has had some quality games, he's not nearly the powerful threat that cook was. And while Jordan Addison is a talented player, it was a surprise to see Minnesota draft a receiver given they already have Justin Jefferson. This team could have used upgrades at other spots, and seemed to only get better at the position they were already elite at.

Takeaway: It's rare to see a 13-win team with an O/U win total set at 8.5 heading into the season. Critics say that the point differential last year pointed to Minnesota being closer to a .500 team, but with Aaron Rodgers leaving the division, Kirk Cousins has an argument for clearly being the best quarterback in this division, and as long as he's under center, we don't see a major fall off coming for the Vikes.

We wouldn't recommend betting Minnesota to win anything beyond the division, but there is some value on the Vikes to win the NFC North at +330 odds. DimersBOT rates Minnesota with a 29.4% probability to take the crown, and that's only 7% less than the consensus favorite Detroit, at nearly three-times better odds. We recommend a sprinkle on the Vikings to win the division before the season begins.

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Chicago Bears

2022 Record: 3-14

2023 Win Total: O/U 7.5

Key Offseason Moves: Drafted: T Darnell Wright, Traded For: DJ Moore, Signed: RB D'Onta Foreman, LB Tremaine Edmunds, Lost: RB David Montgomery

Outlook: This offseason began with Chicago trading the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, largely because they believe in Justin Fields. That's a good decision, as they were able to collect a haul of picks plus star receiver DJ Moore, who will immediately easily be the most talented player Justin Fields has thrown to since his time in college at Ohio State.

The Bears also upgraded defensively, bringing in veteran LB Tremaine Edmunds, who will provide a steady voice and physical presence both on and off the field for Chicago. This offseason felt like a step forward, although they may not compete immediately next season, but the Bears made strides toward surrounding Justin Fields with a core worthy of winning plenty of football games.

Takeaway: The Bears feel as if they are a year away from being a year away (shoutout NBA legend Bruno Caboclo), and DimersBOT agrees, marking Chicago down as just a 19% likelihood to win the NFC North division.

At +425 odds, there's not enough value there. If you are looking to back Chicago, the more exciting play would be to take their Over on their win total of 7.5 wins. With a superstar dual threat at quarterback, it's not hard to squint and see a world where the Bears end the season with a winning record. We like that much more than backing them to be better than Minnesota or Detroit.

RELATED: AFC East Division Preview

Green Bay Packers

2022 Record: 8-9

2023 Win Total: O/U 7.5

Key Offseason Moves: Traded: QB Aaron Rodgers. Lost: WR Allen Lazard, WR Randall Cobb, TE Robert Tonyan, S Adrian Amos. Drafted: EDGE Lukas Van Ness

Outlook: There's plenty of NFC North fans singing the Wizard of Oz song - "ding dong, the witch is dead!" as Aaron Rodgers finally exits the division that he held control of for his entire career. From telling Soldier Field "I own you" to miraculous Hail Mary wins against Detroit, Rodgers had that special something that just felt insurmountable.

As things soured between Rodgers and Green Bay, the Packers will now take a significant step backward. Gone are Rodgers and all of his favorite pass-catchers, in steps Jordan love. Green Bay also did not add much via free agency, as safety Jonathan Owens is one of their only adds that has received significant playing time in recent years.

Takeaway: It's going to take some time for Green Bay to factor themselves back into this divisional race. After moving on from Rodgers, Green Bay spent many of their early round draft picks replenishing their offense with young talent. The problem? It's going to take them awhile to be ready to win football games.

DimersBOT agrees, dropping the Packers all the way to last in the division in terms of probabilities to win the NFC North at just 15.5%. At +475 odds, there's no value here whatsoever. We also recommend betting the Packers UNDER 7.5 wins. All three of their divisional rivals have taken steps forward and Green Bay feels the most likely to get bit.

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Get a head start on your NFL wagers with our full slate of NFL tools, all powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics model known as ‘DimersBOT!’ We run 1000s of simulations for every game all season long to help identify where the books are mispricing their odds, all to help you turn a profit.

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