NFC East Betting Preview - Division Winner Odds, Win Totals and Team Outlooks

Can you feel it? The 2023-24 NFL season is inching closer by the day. As of this writing, we are now just weeks away from kickoff between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions on Thursday, September 7. We can’t wait to dive into betting on this season, from parlays and futures to TD round Robins and more, this year has potential to be our best yet.

Full-fledged preseason is here. This is where we’ll see who cracks the roster bubble, shaping the final outlook for each team and finalizing the player pools from which we’ll be drafting our fantasy squads. We even get to watch Aaron Rodgers and Co. on Hard Knocks this year, which is proving to be top-quality entertainment.

In order to fully prep for the wealth of betting opportunities we’ll have this season, we’ve analyzed each of the eight NFL divisions. Combining our cutting-edge predictive analytics model with our own know-how, we look at key offseason moves, the outlook for each team as predicted by DimersBOT and even some futures bets with value worth jumping on now.

MORE: Three Early NFL Futures Bets to Make Now

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NFL Divisional Previews

AFC East | AFC West | AFC South | AFC North

NFC East | NFC North | NFC West | NFC South

NFC East Division Preview

Philadelphia Eagles

2022-23 Record: 14-3, lost Super Bowl to KC Chiefs

2023 Win Total: O/U 11.5

Key Offseason Moves: Drafted: DE Jalen Carter and LB Nolan Smith (both first rounders). Signed RB Rashaad Penny, S Terrell Edmunds. Extended Jalen Hurts (5 years, $255M)

Outlook: The Eagles came up three points short of the cherry on top to a dominant season. The best team pretty much wire-to-wire in the regular season, Philadelphia planted a flag as a team not to be trifled with, erasing any memory of the team that was 4-11 just two seasons ago. Superstar Jalen Hurts had an MVP case until a shoulder injury sidelined him for a quick spell in the final month. Nick Sirianni looked like the inevitable Coach of the Year but was edged out at the end by Brian Daboll.

They make move after move to improve their roster, be it trading for stud WR A.J. Brown on draft night or reloading through the draft (which many say they won this past year), they’re here to stay. The Eagles are the Super Bowl favorite per our model, getting a 14.9% chance to win the title, while their odds of +800 suggest just 11%.

Takeaway: Expect more of the same for the Eagles in 2023. They’re favored to win the NFC East at -110 and at a 61% chance to do so from DimersBOT, you’re getting 10% +EV in the odds right now. Depending on where you stand, this is either a good play at value now, or worth waiting on in the hopes that you can get them at plus odds if they stumble at some point this season.

If you think the Eagles can repeat their regular season success, the value on an alternate wins over of 12.5 at +180 is pretty appealing as are their exact win props of 11 (+500), 12 (+475), and 13 (+500).

What about to start the season 5-0 at +380? They have the leagues toughest schedule, but open the season @ NE, vs. MIN, @ TB, vs. WSH and @ LA. That's a lot of travel, but 5-0 for last year’s best team is completely within reason. Take it a step further and you can get them as the NFL's last undefeated team at +750.

Looking at the Finalists market, Eagles vs. Bengals is DraftKings’ fourth-most likely result, so Eagles to beat Bengals in the Super Bowl at +4500, anyone?

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Dallas Cowboys

2022 Record: 12-5, lost in Divisional Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 10.5

Key Offseason Moves: Cut: RB Ezekiel Elliott. Traded for CB Stephon Gilmore, WR Brandin Cooks. Franchise-tagged: RB Tony Pollard. Lost: OC Kellen Moore

Outlook: I don’t know what kind of deal Jerry Jones must have made to curse the Cowboys, but they’ve been locked in what feels like an eternal battle against themselves for the better part of two decades. Constantly vacillating between a major QB injury and simply disappointing, they continue to come up short of the ultimate goal. Once again, the team looks pretty good on paper with come-up RB Tony Pollard leading the backfield and the addition of veteran Brandin Cooks in the WR corps. Their defense was as good as any last year and Micah Parsons is the preseason favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year at +650.

As one of the most popular teams from both a fan perspective and more importantly a betting one, It’s tough to find value on the Cowboys given how much money they bring in for the books. That’s not to say you shouldn’t bet them if you’re a believer, but their +190 odds to win the division should be out to +300 based on the 26% chance given by our model. Again, we make them closer to +1000 to win the NFC, but they’re priced down to +600.

Takeaway: Last season marked the first time Dallas registered back-to-back seasons of double-digit wins since 1995 and 1996. With the third-highest strength of schedule and some expected stiff competition within the division, as well as a playcalling change to head coach Mike McCarthy, 10.5 might be a tough number to reach, which is why the books have the Under at -130. You can get +140 if you take it down to 9.5.

One bet that catches our eye is on DraftKings and it’s either CeeDee Lamb or Tony Pollard to have 1,750+ yards from scrimmage at +300. Pollard put up 1,378 yards last year in a committee with Zeke. Lamb put up 1,406. That mark is certainly in the range of outcomes for either player if Dak plays to his best.

Another nice prop is CeeDee Lamb to have 100+ receiving yards in 8+ games. He hit the mark five times last year and came close in a few others. Brandin Cooks will pull some targets away from Lamb but at +450, it’s a fair price for a fun bet.

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

New York Giants

2022 Record: 9-7-1, lost in Divisional Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 7.5

Key Offseason Moves: Re-signed: QB Daniel Jones (4 years, $160M). Extended: DE Dexter Lawrence.  Franchise tagged: RB Saquon Barkley. Traded for: TE Darren Waller. Signed RB James Robinson

Outlook: Even with them bringing in eventual Coach of the Year winner Brian Daboll, not many expected the Giants to finish as well as they did in 2022. Behind Daboll’s fire and grit of a Norse warrior, a career-year for QB Daniel Jones and a bounce back from injury that had Saquon Barkley in the Comeback Player of the Year race for much of the season, Big Blue restored faith in the Giants faithful after just one winning season in their last nine. They were manhandled in the Divisional Round by the Philadelphia Eagles, however, showing they’re still a few steps away from hanging with the big dogs of the NFC.

Stirring up plenty of offseason buzz has been the contract situation surrounding Barkley and the Giants brass. After getting hit with the franchise tag, Saquon has voiced his displeasure with not receiving a proper extension and has been a holdout thus far. It remains to be seen when if or when he’ll play for the Giants this year, and while it doesn’t seem as dire as the Le’Veon Bell-Steelers situation, it could be a messy rest of the offseason in Giants Land.

Takeaway: From the analytics side of things, our model gives the Giants a 10.1% chance to win the division which lines up pretty well with their win total set at a sub-.500 record. Their best odds of +850 on PointsBet are a fair price given the chances, but it’s not a bet we’d recommend taking. The NFC as a whole is top-loaded and their path to reach a Super Bowl isn’t any easier than to a division title.

Their plus-money odds of +160 to make the playoffs are pretty appealing, and it’s better than the +100 to go over 7.5 wins, something they’ll almost certainly need to do to secure a Wild Card spot. You can get a slightly better price of +180 for their Over 8.5 wins if you think they hit the total but still come up short of the postseason.

None of their players have a clear path to an award; Daniel Jones would have to beat out the obvious MVP candidates for a shot, Daboll can’t win back-to-back COY awards and Saquon’s situation doesn’t bode well for an Offensive Player of the Year run. The Giants are mostly looking like a futures fade right now.

RELATED: AFC East Division Preview

Washington Commanders

2022 Record: 8-8-1, 4^th place in NFC East

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Key Offseason Moves: Hired OC Eric Bieniemy. New ownership. Signed: QB Jacoby Brissett

Outlook: The winds of change are blowing for the Washington football team formerly known as the Washington Football Team. Hot on the heels of an ownership change the fans have been waiting on for years now, the Commanders set their sights on a full organizational rebuild, beyond just the product on the field. They were the latest victim of the Carson Wentz experiment but that is no more, as they’ll turn to a (likely) combination of Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett under center. Riverboat Ron now has an exceptional offensive mind in new hire Eric Bieniemy and will most likely be playing for his job in 2023.

While they have one true offensive “star” in Terry McLaurin, their offense is packed with talented role players like RB Brian Robinson, WR Jahan Dotson and TE Logan Thomas, as any semi-serious fantasy player well knows. However, their success will ultimately lean on what level of QB play they can get out of their signalcaller.

Takeaway: The Commanders are a total fade from any division, conference and obviously Super Bowl perspective. They managed to scrape out 8 wins last year, but getting +100 even money at the over 6.5 isn’t quite enticing enough. We’d sooner take the Under 5.5 at +150 or even under 4.5 at +270.

They have an incredibly difficult schedule that outside of the standard six games against the rest of the NFC East, includes games against the Bills, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers and Rams. This Washington team could realistically be playing for a Top 5 draft pick. The books know it too, as they have the fifth-shortest odds on DraftKings to have the fewest wins this year at +1000. I don’t know about you, but I’m sprinkling some pizza money on there. Last winless team at +2000 gets my attention, buuuuut they open the season against the Cardinals, the worst projected team this year.

For a player prop future worth a look, you can get Terry McLaurin over 900.5 receiving yards at -115. He’s done this all four years he’s been in the league, passing 1,000 three times and 1,100 twice in spite of mediocre to bad QB play.

Another one with some appeal is Brian Robinson Jr. to have 100+ rushing yards in 8 regular season games. He tallied 797 in 12 games played last year after recovering from a bullet wound in his leg. A healthy B-Rob could tear up the turf with Antonio Gibson looking like he’s on the decline.

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Get a head start on your NFL wagers with our full slate of NFL tools, all powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics model known as ‘DimersBOT!’ We run 1000s of simulations for every game all season long to help identify where the books are mispricing their odds, all to help you turn a profit.

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