10 Best NBA Player Props & First Basket Bets For Wednesday

We've dived deep into our predictive analytics model, otherwise known as DimersBOT, to identify the best odds and betting opportunities, plus the best NBA player props and first basket predictions for Wednesday November 16, 2022. Using the world renowned Monte Carlo method, we have simulated every major pro and college sport over 10,000 times to produce NBA predictions that paint the clearest picture of what is likely to occur in any given game, and which players will contribute to those predictions either hitting or missing. We then use these suggested NBA prop bets and match them against the sportsbooks' odds to identify where we have a betting edge, and where we believe the odds makers have got it wrong in their assessment of an NBA matchup.

Using the Total Points, Rebounds, Assists, Three-Pointers, Blocks, Steals, Turnovers and First Basket player prop markets, and then matching them against the results of our simulations, gives us a massive opportunity to identify the 10 best player prop bets for Wednesday, with the biggest edges, to throw our cash down on today.

For NBA prop bets from EVERY game being played today, check out our NBA Prop Bets generator to find yourself today's best plays.

NBA Player Props Wednesday

Knicks vs. Nuggets

BET: Julius Randle Over 3.5 Total Assists (+134)

DimersBOT has Randle dishing 5.9 dimes against the Nuggets tonight so, at odds of +154, betting his Over 3.5 assists gives us a huge edge of 20.4%. We need to place this bet at FanDuel Sportsbook. 

BET: Jalen Brunson Under 6.5 Total Assists (-104)

DimersBOT has Brunson getting only 4.6 dimes, following 10,000 simulations of tonight's Knicks-Nuggets game, so at odds of -104, betting his Under on assists gives us a tasty edge of 9.8%. We need to place this bet at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can score $200 in bonuses from a $5 money line bet.

Pacers vs. Hornets

BET: Kelly Oubre Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+140)

The super computer has Oubre making 3.6 threes against the Pacers tonight so, with plus money odds of +140, betting Over 2.5 3-pointers gives us an edge of 19.4%. To get max bang for our buck we need to place this bet at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonuses from a $5 money line bet. Claim it here.

BET: LaMelo Ball Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made (+112)

Our predictive analytics model thinks the +112 odds on LaMelo to hit Over 3.5 threes are too good to pass up at Caesars Sportsbook. This Over represents a big edge of 9.2% and is a bet we can place with confidence.

Warriors vs. Suns

BET: Stephen Curry Over 4.5 3-Pointers Made (+130)

Our predictive analytics model has Steph down for 5.6 triples tonight against the Suns, so his odds of +130 look very tasty indeed. We should bet his Over 4.5 threes line with at PointsBet, where we have a 17.4% edge. 

Cavaliers vs. Bucks

BET: Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 Total Assists (+100)

Our super computer loves the value on Mitchell dishing at least five dimes, at odds of +100. At those odds the Over 4.5 currently has an edge of 12.2% vs. our prediction of 6.7 assists. To take full advantage of this edge we need to place this bet at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonuses from a $5 money line bet. Claim it here.

For NBA prop bets from EVERY game being played today, check out our NBA Prop Bets generator to find yourself today's best plays.

Timberwolves vs. Magic

BET: D'Angelo Russell Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+115)

We predict Russell will hit 3.2 threes in the Timberwolves' matchup with the Magic, so based on the +115 odds available, the Over presents a nice edge of 11.4% against his line of 2.5. To ensure we get full bang for our buck here, we need to place this bet with PointsBet.

BET: Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 Total Rebounds (-106)

We love Rudy to get at least 13 boards (we have him down for 14.6) tonight against the Magic, so with odds of -106 available we should bet his Over 12.5 rebounds line with DraftKings Sportsbook where we have a 10.3% edge. You can register a DraftKings account here and score $200 in bonuses from a $5 money line bet.

BET: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 8.5 Total Rebounds (-110)

In over 10,000 different simulations of the Timberwolves-Magic game, we have KAT notching 10.6 boards tonight so, at odds of -110, betting his Over 8.5 rebounds gives us a tempting edge of 9.5% with PointsBet.

Thunder vs. Wizards

BET: Josh Giddey Over 7.5 Total Rebounds (+106)

Our predictive analytics model thinks the +106 odds on Australian youngster Josh Giddey to have Over 7.5 rebounds are too good to pass up at DraftKings Sportsbook. This Over represents an edge of 9.0% and is a bet that looks almost too good to be true, considering Giddey's recent form. If you aren't already on DraftKings, you can score $200 in bonuses from a $5 money line bet.

For NBA prop bets from EVERY game being played today, check out our NBA Prop Bets generator to find yourself today's best plays.

NBA First Basket Plays For Wednesday

In recent times, NBA first basket bets have become one of the more popular prop bets for sports bettors to wager on. All of the major sportsbooks offer NBA odds on first basket scorer, so by using our predictive analytics model to identify where the edges lie on Wednesday, November 16, you're giving yourself an advantage over the rest of the field.

Our super computer identifies both value bets and the players with the highest probabilities. While all the usual suspects will often feature in our NBA first basket predictions, it is unlikely you will ever see the likes of Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Jason Tatum or Giannis listed as 'value bets' because the odds the sportsbooks put up for those guys are always extremely efficient - and that's where we come in.

NBA First Basket Value Bets Today

Based on the above first basket scorer probabilities, the players listed below represent the most value to score the first basket in NBA games on Wednesday, November 16, 2022. While it's obviously impossible for all of these guys to cash tickets for us, we actually don't need them to.

Given some of the first basket odds available, we'd only need one or two of these to hit for us to earn a nice payout.

While the sportsbooks focus on the top two or three guys from each game, we're able to evaluate every player, in every game, to unearth the edges that will give us the upper hand when it comes to long-term profitability.

Remember, the key to long term success when betting is being able to identify where there is an edge in the market, in other words, when the sportsbooks' odds aren't a true reflection of the actual likelihood of something happening.