When Will the Cavaliers Lose their First Game? A.I. Predicts a 15-0 Start for Cleveland

It's been a heck of a start for the Cleveland Cavaliers, whose 13-0 start of the season is the longest in franchise history and the longest in the NBA since the Warriors' famous 24-0 start in 2015-16.

Led by their new head coach, Kenny Atkinson, and the dominant offensive tandem of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland alongside their tenacious big men in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, the Cavs have done nothing but impress through the first month of the season.

🏆 NBA CUP: Our Predictions for This Year's In-Season Tournament

With the sportsbooks now offering odds on when the Cavaliers will lose their first game of the season, we've fired up a custom simulation in our model, separate from our daily NBA Predictions, thanks to our supremely talented NBA data scientists to predict the likelihood of when Cleveland will first fall to an opposing team.

Best Undefeated Starts in NBA History

At 13-0, the Cavs are just two wins away from tying the second-best streak in NBA history and three games from solidifying the second-best start of all time.

Then things get really interesting. The Warriors own the longest unbeaten streak to start a season in NBA history at 24 games, before famously losing in the NBA Finals to ... the Cleveland Cavaliers.

As you can see, among the best streaks to start an NBA season, five out of the top teams reached the Finals, with two teams finishing the job and winning it all.

We currently give the Cavaliers a 2.9% to win the NBA Finals this season and an 11.1% probability to win the Eastern Conference Finals, per our NBA Finals predictions.

Predicting the First Loss for the Cleveland Cavaliers

Just how long can the Cavaliers ride this unbeaten train? They're already in rarified air as just the sixth team in NBA history to start 13-0.

They've got a formidable opponent coming up with the Boston Celtics on November 19th, with a pair of games before that, including Friday's NBA CUP group stage game with the Chicago Bulls.

Cleveland has a +11.7 average win margin, second-best in the league behind the Oklahoma City Thunder at +12.7. They're allowing an average of 110.1 points per game, tied with the Golden State Warriors for seventh-fewest in the league.

Their closest games were 1-point and 2-point victories in back-to-back wins over the Milwaukee Bucks.

With all that in mind, here's our model's likelihood of when the Cleveland Cavaliers will lose their first game, based on 50,000 simulations.

Value plays are noted in green and remember, these odds will change with any potential subsequent wins.

*Denotes NBA Cup game, odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Most Likely Wins

Our model gives the Cavaliers the biggest chance to lose vs. the Celtics in Tuesday's NBA Cup game on the road in Boston. This makes sense as the Celtics are the best team in this upcoming schedule and road games are naturally more difficult. Plus, the added competitiveness of the NBA Cup factors in.

The second most-likely result is also an NBA Cup game, their next match with the Bulls on Friday, November 19. The Bulls are nearly +400 underdogs with a 55% chance to cover the +10 spread according to our model, but the Cavaliers have a 76.5% probability to win this game against the 5-7 Bulls.

Longshot Values

Beyond those favored bets from our model, we also see four game dates with value. There's an edge on the Bulls for the first game, with our fair odds at +325 for a Chicago win, featured in our Best NBA Bets.

We get an even bigger value in their subsequent game, with the price set for a loss to the Hornets at +800, and should they survive the Celtics, there's (unsurprisingly) big value in them to lose to the Western Conference last-place Pelicans, with a better price against the last-place Raptors in the East, though notably less value compared to our fair odds.

Dimers NBA Betting Resources for 2024-25 Season

• NBA Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• NBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game of the postseason
• Championship Odds: Who will be crowned the champion in 2024?
• NBA Best Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.