NBA Playoffs: First Round Predictions and Best Bets

The first round of the NBA Playoffs is officially here! We used our predictive analytics model to analyze each team's likelihood of advancing past the first round of the playoffs and summarized the findings with our Best Bets in this article. Every team has dreams of winning the NBA championship, but which team actually will? Read on for our full analysis, and if you're looking for more parlays, don't forget to check out our Dimers Parlay Picker which does the work for you in putting the best of the Dimers projection data together into a quick parlay for you to bet.

Note: The matchups involving teams from the NBA Play-In are not included here, as at the time of writing, those matchups were not finalized and odds were not available.

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NBA Playoffs First Round Predictions

Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers

It has been quite an up and down season for Brooklyn, who couldn't have imagined they would be entering the first round of the NBA playoffs without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving at the start of the season. As the six-seed, the Nets are a bit over-seeded, given that they have not been nearly as competitive with new "stars" Mikal Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie. Our model gives Brooklyn just a 0.3% chance to win the Eastern Conference, which is even less likely than teams that began in the play-in. The Sixers are our model's third-favorite team in the East, with a 21.7% chance of winning the conference. James Harden and Joel Embiid have the star power to win the entire tournament, but it starts with a series win over Brooklyn.

THE PREDICTION: 76ers in 5

THE BET: 76ers -2.5 games (-150) with DraftKings

 

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics

The Atlanta Hawks and the Boston Celtics both find themselves back in the playoffs, as both teams have established themselves as Eastern Conference staples. The Celtics are one of our model's favorite teams, as DimersBOT gives them a 31.5% chance to win the Eastern Conference and a 19.3% chance of winning the NBA title. The Hawks will be overmatched in this one, but they still have a superstar in Trae Young, who will be able to keep them competitive against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. While our model likes the Celtics to advance, there's just no value in betting Boston here. You can get the Hawks to win two or more games at +135 odds at DraftKings, and that's good enough for us.

THE PREDICTION: Celtics in 6

THE BET: Hawks +2.5 games (+135) with DraftKings

 

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New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Two teams in the middle of the pack in the Eastern Conference playoffs, as the 4-seed and the 5-seed will meet with a golden opportunity to win a playoff series for the first time in ages for each franchise. While not much separates these teams on paper, DimersBOT sees the Cavaliers as a sizable favorite, giving Cleveland a 6.5% chance to win the Eastern Conference, compared to the Knicks' 2.6% chance of doing the same. With Donovan Mitchell (who the Knicks tried to acquire in the offseason) leading the way, we see Cleveland proving victorious here, even if it is a hotly contested series. You have to lay a little juice, but sometimes the juice is worth the squeeze.

THE PREDICTION: Cavaliers in 7 

THE BET: Cavaliers to win the series (-210) with DraftKings

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Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings

Our model ranks Golden State as the second-most likely team to emerge out of the Western Conference, giving them a 19.9% chance to win the West. Meanwhile, the Kings are all the way on the opposite end of the spectrum, with just a 2.1% chance. Despite the Kings' loud wishes to face Golden State, DimersBOT isn't buying it. The Warriors' championship pedigree (and health, with Andrew Wiggins back), should be more than enough to dispense quickly of the upstart Kings. Sacramento has been a lovely story this season, but they have plenty of work to do to become an actual contender, and we don't believe it will happen this year. You can get some great value on the Warriors to win in five games or less, at +185 odds at DraftKings.

THE PREDICTION: Warriors in 5

THE BET: Warriors -2.5 games (+185) with DraftKings

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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies

It's always difficult to bet against The King, aka LeBron James. But the Grizzlies have been the better team all season long, and we don't expect that to change in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Our model ranks the Grizzlies right behind the Warriors in the West - with a 19.1% chance of winning the conference. Ja Morant and company are fun to watch, but they are also a complete team, something we can't say about the Lakers right now despite their star power at the top. You can get very tasty odds on the much better team here, because the public loves to bet on LeBron. At -140 odds just to win the series, and our model projecting the Grizzlies to win comfortably, that's one of our favorite bets of the first round.

THE PREDICTION: Grizzlies in 6

THE BET: Grizzlies to win the series (-140) with DraftKings

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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns

The Clippers and the Suns projects as one of the more entertaining, competitive series matchups in the first round. The Clippers have the star power and the depth to make a deep run, and with Kevin Durant onboard, the Suns are one of the betting favorites to win the entire thing. Our model is a bit more skeptical of Phoenix, giving the Suns just a 7.2% chance to win the NBA Championship, good for the 7th-most likely, despite being the third-most likely according to the sportsbooks at +500 odds. The Clippers aren't far behind according to DimersBOT, and we see some value in betting this to be a competitive series. At -140 odds to win just two games or more, we love the Clippers to make this interesting, even though the Suns are the better team.

THE PREDICTION: Suns in 7

THE BET: Clippers +2.5 games (-140) with DraftKings

 

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Find out who we are betting on from a game to game basis via our NBA Bet Hub, where we deliver you NBA predictions and suggested bets, or check out the NBA Betting News section.