NBA Futures: Should You Bet Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns to Win the NBA Title?

After acquiring Kevin Durant, the Phoenix Suns are all-in on winning an NBA Championship. But should we bet on them, or should we fade them? As NBA All Star Weekend comes and goes, the Suns will integrate their new superstar with Devin Booker, Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton. The Suns to win the NBA Title is one of the most popular bets in NBA betting right now, but is it a wise one? Let's take a closer look.

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NBA Championship Odds and Probabilities

Betting Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

After the Kevin Durant trade, the Phoenix Suns' betting odds jolted all the way to +480, as fans and bettors everywhere rushed to get in on the action. This makes the Suns currently the 2nd-most likely team to win the NBA championship according to the sportsbooks.

However, our model is much lower on the Suns relative to other teams like the Celtics, Bucks, Nuggets and Mavericks. The DimersBOT gives the Suns just an 8.2% chance of winning the NBA Championship, which does not reflect their +480 odds at all.

Kevin Durant is an all-world talent, but mid-season acquisitions are never the easiest to navigate. How will their current leading scorer Devin Booker acclimate to moving off the ball more? Will Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton still be heavily involved?

It wouldn't be the first Durant super team to fall short. His Oklahoma City Thunder teams with Russell Westbrook and James Harden never got over the hump, and his Brooklyn teams with Harden And Kyrie Irving were a complete disaster in the playoffs.

At age 34, Durant is approaching the stage of his career where skills start to decline. His health is a concern after the achilles injury that cost him an entire season in 2019-2020. 

While it may be the most fun bet to place, it's not as safe as tailing the other NBA Title contenders - the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and even the Dallas Mavericks.

The Celtics have arguably been the best team in the NBA this season, and after coming so close to the crown losing in last year's NBA Finals, Boston is a worthy favorite at +350 odds. Our model loves them - giving them a 21.8% probability of winning it all.

The Bucks also have a fantastic shot - as Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to dominate as the best player in the sport. With a healthy Khris Middleton back, the Bucks' duo won the NBA title the last time both played together in the playoffs. At +600 odds and a 13.0% probability to win, bettors can get a good edge there as well.

But the best bet you can make according to our model is on the Dallas Mavericks to win the NBA Championship. After acquiring Kyrie Irving, the Mavs now have the most lethal backcourt in the sport, pairing Irving with the sensational Luka Doncic. It seems that sportsbooks haven't adjusted to the Mavs' trade the same way they have to the Suns, and we aren't quite sure why. Our model give the Mavericks a 9.6% chance to win it all, and that compares favorably at +1800 odds to other teams at the same odds or worse like the Grizzlies (6.9%), 76ers (5.7%) and the Warriors (4.5%).

BEST BET: Dallas Mavericks to win the NBA Title (+1800)

Find out who we're betting on for every basketball game each night via our NBA Bet Hub, where we deliver you NBA predictions and suggested bets, or check out the NBA Betting News section.