NBA First Basket Predictions & Value Bets For Tuesday November 1, 2022

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Written by Nick Slade
NBA First Basket Predictions & Value Bets For Tuesday November 1, 2022

Our sophisticated predictive analytics model is able to identify the players most likely to score the first basket in tonight's NBA games, as well as some value bets for Tuesday November 1, 2022. Based upon the globally respected Monte Carlo Simulator method, we have have analyzed every NBA game today by simulating each of them over 10,000 times to find NBA first basket value plays. We are able to identify these opportunities by matching our results against the sportsbooks' odds to learn where we have a betting edge, and where we believe the odds makers have got it wrong in their assessment of an NBA matchup.

Using Tuesday's NBA First Basket prop markets across multiple platforms, we compare the results of our simulations to the sportsbooks' odds, allowing us to identify the NBA players that present the most value to score the first basket of the game and also those with the highest probability of doing so.

 

As an NBA bettor, BetMGM is the sportsbook for you. Over at BetMGM Sportsbook new users will score $200 in free bets from a $10 bet when there's a 3-pointer in the game they bet on. Register an account today, right here.

Tuesday NBA First Basket Predictions

In recent times, NBA first basket bets have become one of the more popular prop bets for sports bettors to wager on. All of the major sportsbooks offer NBA odds on first basket scorer, so by using our predictive analytics model to identify where the edges lie on Tuesday, November 1, you're giving yourself an advantage over the rest of the field.

Our super computer identifies both value bets and the players with the highest probabilities. While all the usual suspects will often feature in our NBA first basket predictions, it is unlikely you will ever see the likes of Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Jason Tatum or Giannis listed as 'value bets' because the odds the sportsbooks put up for those guys are always extremely efficient - and that's where we come in.

PLAYER FIRST BASKET
S. Gilgeous-Alexander 16.51% chance
Stephen Curry (GS) 16.49% chance
Devin Booker (PHO) 16.0% chance
Kevin Durant (BRO) 14.73% chance
Bol Bol (ORL) 14.23% chance
13.49% chance
Anthony Edwards (MIN) 13.40% chance
Tyler Herro (MIA) 12.56% chance
DeMar DeRozan (CHI) 12.40% chance
Jimmy Butler (MIA) 12.36% chance
Wendell Carter (ORL) 11.86% chance
Nicolas Claxton (BRO) 11.47% chance
K-A Towns (MIN) 11.31% chance
Andrew Wiggins (GS) 11.31% chance
Zach LaVine (CHI) 10.89% chance
Bam Adebayo (MIA) 10.82% chance
Nikola Vucevic (CHI)  10.75% chance
Tre Mann (OKC) 10.68% chance
Cameron Johnson (PHO) 9.90% chance
Klay Thompson (GS) 9.71% chance

NBA First Basket Tuesday Value Bets

Based on the above first basket scorer probabilities, the players listed below represent the most value to score the first basket in NBA games on Tuesday night, November 1, 2022. While it's obviously impossible for all of these guys to cash tickets for us, we actually don't need them to.

Given some of the first basket odds available, we'd only need one or two of these to hit for us to earn a nice payout.

While the sportsbooks focus on the top two or three guys from each game, we're able to evaluate every player, in every game, to unearth the edges that will give us the upper hand when it comes to long-term profitability.

Remember, the key to long term success when betting is being able to identify where there is an edge in the market, in other words, when the sportsbooks' odds aren't a true reflection of the actual likelihood of something happening.

We also suggest taking advantage of BetMGM's Bet $10, Win $200 when there's a 3-pointer offer.

FIRST BASKET VALUE PROBABILITY BETMGM ODDS
Bol Bol (Magic) 14.23% +1100
Nicolas Claxton (Nets) 11.47% +1100
S.Gilgeous-Alexander 16.51% +600
D.Green (Warriors) 6.98% +2000
J. McDaniels (T-wolves) 7.31% +1700
A. Edwards (T-wolves) 13.4% +750
Tre Mann (Thunder) 10.68% +950

As an NBA bettor, BetMGM is the sportsbook for you. Over at BetMGM Sportsbook new users will score $200 in free bets from a $10 bet when there's a 3-pointer in the game they bet on. Register an account today, right here.

 
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Written by
Nick Slade
Chief Content Officer

Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers and Stats Insider, and specializes in soccer, NBA and NHL betting.

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