NBA First Basket Predictions Today - Sunday 5/21/23

We have another exciting day of NBA Playoffs upon us, and we've run thousands of Celtics vs. Heat Game 3 simulations to find the best NBA first basket bets for you to make on Sunday May 21, 2023.

NBA first basket props have become one of the more popular options for basketball bettors to wager on, and by using Sunday's predictions below, you can gain an edge over everyone else.

All of the top sportsbooks throughout the nation offer odds on NBA first basket scorers, and by utilizing our trusted machine learning and data, Dimers.com has identified where the best value can be found on Sunday 5/21.

Sunday's NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game 3 between the Celtics and Heat is set to feature players such as Jimmy Butler, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown, each with a high probability of opening the scoring when they take to the court.

Here, we will provide you with a list of players that our predictive analytics model has identified as NBA first basket value bets for today's action, as well as the players who have the highest likelihood of scoring the first basket on May 21.

MORE: Every NBA Game Simulated 10,000 Times

Best First Basket Picks Today - Celtics vs. Heat Game 3

Having simulated today's Celtics vs. Heat Game 3, our independent predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, has generated the best NBA first basket bets for you to make on Sunday.

Kevin Love To Score First Basket (+1800)

• Odds: +1800 via FanDuel Sportsbook
• Edge: 1.1%
• Probability: 6.3%
• Game: Celtics vs. Heat (8:30PM ET)

Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Sunday, which is in the game between the Celtics and Heat. The bet is on Kevin Love (MIA) at odds of +1800 with FanDuel Sportsbook, and our model has found an edge of 1.1%.

Max Strus To Score First Basket (+1100)

• Odds: +1100 via FanDuel Sportsbook
• Edge: 0.3%
• Probability: 8.7%
• Game: Celtics vs. Heat (8:30PM ET)

The next best NBA first basket bet for Sunday also comes in the Celtics vs. Heat game, where our model has found an edge of 0.3% on Max Strus (MIA) at odds of +1100 with FanDuel Sportsbook.

Today's NBA First Basket Predictions - Sunday May 21, 2023

As well as providing you with the best NBA first basket bets today, Dimers.com has also determined the most likely players to score the first basket in Game 3 of Celtics vs. Heat.

According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket today is Jimmy Butler, with a probability of 16.0%.

Additionally, the players with the next highest likelihood of cashing your first basket bets are Jayson Tatum, with a 14.8% probability, and Jaylen Brown, with a 14.4% probability.

Who Will Score the First Basket Tonight - May 21, 2023

With Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Celtics and Heat set to go down tonight, we have determined the probabiliy of each of the 10 projected starters opening the scoring.

• Jimmy Butler (MIA): 16.0% probability
• Jayson Tatum (BOS): 14.8% probability
• Jaylen Brown (BOS): 14.4% probability
• Bam Adebayo (MIA): 11.8% probability
• Max Strus (MIA): 8.7% probability
• Marcus Smart (BOS): 8.0% probability
• Derrick White (BOS): 7.6% probability
• Gabe Vincent (MIA): 7.2% probability
• Kevin Love (MIA): 6.3% probability
• Al Horford (BOS): 5.3% probability

Remember, although this list shows the players with the highest probability of scoring the first basket on Sunday, it does not necessarily indicate they are suggested bets according to our predictive analytics model.

To increase your chances of winning, it's important to keep an eye on the best odds available.

MORE: NBA Props - Sunday May 21, 2023

What Is an Edge in Betting?

The edge at Dimers is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that Dimers believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.

Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.

Today's NBA First Basket Picks - May 21, 2023

All of Dimers' NBA first basket predictions for Sunday May 21 are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations per matchup, giving you reliable and accurate NBA predictions to help you make informed decisions.

If you plan to use today's NBA first basket predictions for sports betting, it's important that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

More About NBA

Now you've got the 411 on today's NBA first basket predictions, check out the best betting analysis for all NBA games on Dimers' NBA Predictions page, where you can find probabilities and odds, as well as our best bets for each and every NBA matchup.