NBA First Basket Predictions, Odds and Value Bets Today [Sunday, 4/21/2024]

It's time for a action-packed day of NBA action, and we've simulated all of today's games thousands of times to find the best NBA first basket picks and odds for Sunday, April 21, 2024.

Sunday's NBA slate features star players such as Bobby Portis, Luka Doncic and Pascal Siakam, each with a high chance of scoring the first basket when they take to the court.

NBA first basket props have become one of the most popular options for NBA bettors to wager on, and by using Sunday's data-driven NBA predictions below, you can gain an edge over everyone else.

This article will provide you with a list of players that our supercomputer has identified as NBA first basket value bets for today's action, as well as the players who are most likely to score the first basket on April 21.

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Who Will Score the First Basket Tonight: April 21, 2024

Thanks to simulating every one of Sunday's NBA games 10,000 times each, Dimers has determined the 10 players most likely to score the first basket in their respective games.

Player (Team)	First Basket Probability
Bobby Portis (Bucks)	14.5%
Luka Doncic (Mavericks)	14.0%
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)	13.8%
Jaylen Brown (Celtics)	13.0%
CJ McCollum (Pelicans)	12.9%
Kyrie Irving (Mavericks)	12.9%
Myles Turner (Pacers)	12.6%
Tyler Herro (Heat)	12.6%
Jonas Valanciunas (Pelicans)	12.1%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)	12.1%

According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's matchups is Bobby Portis, with a probability of 14.5%.

Additionally, the players with the next highest likelihood of scoring the first basket today are Luka Doncic, with a 14.0% probability, and Pascal Siakam, with a 13.8% probability. Remember, although this list shows the players with the highest probability of scoring the first basket on Sunday, it does not always indicate they are recommended bets according to our predictive analytics model.

To increase your chances of winning when betting on NBA props, it's important to look out for the best odds available.

Best First Basket Picks Tonight: Sunday 4/21/2024

Having simulated the outcome of today's NBA matchups thousands of times each, our predictive model has generated the best NBA first basket betting picks for Sunday.

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1. Tyler Herro To Score First Basket (+1000)

• Odds: +1000
• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 12.6%
• Matchup: Heat vs. Celtics (1:00PM ET)

Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for today's NBA slate, which is in the game between the Heat and Celtics. The bet is on Tyler Herro (MIA) at odds of +1000 with FanDuel Sportsbook, and our model has found an edge of 3.5%.

The next two suggested plays are for Nikola Jovic (2.1% edge) to score first in the Heat vs. Celtics game and Pascal Siakam (2.0%) to score the first basket in the Pacers vs. Bucks matchup.

2. Nikola Jovic To Score First Basket (+1200)

• Odds: +1200
• Edge: 2.1%
• Probability: 9.8%
• Matchup: Heat vs. Celtics (1:00PM ET)

The next best NBA first basket bet for Sunday also comes in the Heat vs. Celtics game, where our model has found an edge of 2.1% on Nikola Jovic (MIA) at odds of +1200 with FanDuel Sportsbook.

MORE: Sunday's Best NBA Bets

3. Pascal Siakam To Score First Basket (+750)

• Odds: +750
• Edge: 2.0%
• Probability: 13.7%
• Matchup: Pacers vs. Bucks (7:00PM ET)

Our next NBA first basket bet today comes in the Pacers vs. Bucks game, where our model has found an edge of 2.0% on Pascal Siakam (IND) at odds of +750 with FanDuel Sportsbook.

MORE: Sunday's NBA Prop Picks

4. Tyrese Haliburton To Score First Basket (+1100)

• Odds: +1100
• Edge: 1.6%
• Probability: 10%
• Matchup: Pacers vs. Bucks (7:00PM ET)

The next best first basket bet for today's NBA action comes in the Pacers vs. Bucks game, where our model has found an edge of 1.6% on Tyrese Haliburton (IND) at odds of +1100 with FanDuel Sportsbook.

5. Myles Turner To Score First Basket (+750)

• Odds: +750
• Edge: 0.9%
• Probability: 12.6%
• Matchup: Pacers vs. Bucks (7:00PM ET)

Rounding out our top five NBA first basket bets for Sunday is Myles Turner (IND) at odds of +750 in the Pacers vs. Bucks game. Here, our model has found an edge of 0.9% with FanDuel Sportsbook.

Today's NBA Games

For more NBA picks and props, check out our full betting previews for each game on the Sunday slate:

• Heat vs. Celtics Prediction (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Mavericks vs. Clippers Prediction (3:30PM ET, Sunday)
• Pacers vs. Bucks Prediction (7:00PM ET, Sunday)

Understanding Betting Edge

At Dimers, an "edge" in betting signifies our belief that an event's probability is higher than the best available NBA odds suggest. A higher betting edge indicates a greater likelihood of success. However, it's essential to remember that no bet is guaranteed, and responsible gambling practices are crucial for long-term success.

Today's NBA First Basket Picks: April 21, 2024

This NBA first basket article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on NBA first basket picks for April 21, 2024, and automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting. Human editing and quality control is performed to ensure the content meets our editorial guidelines.

All of Dimers' NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, April 21, are made after thousands of data-driven game simulations, giving you reliable and accurate NBA predictions to help you make informed decisions.

If you use today's NBA first basket predictions for sports betting, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and manage your bankroll effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

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