NBA Finals Betting Preview: How to Bet on Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat

The NBA Finals are upon us. It’s been a wild postseason so far, with the underdog Miami Heat toppling the top two overall seeds in the Eastern Conference en route to their second Finals appearance in the past four years. It didn’t go without a sweat, as they squandered their 3-0 lead before wrapping it up with a statement Game 7.

Now, they take on the Denver Nuggets who make their first Finals appearance in franchise history, opening as overwhelming -400 favorites over Miami. Though they may be underdogs by definition, the Heat have proven they can’t be counted out. Let’s analyze the Finals to find our best betting value.

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Who Will Win the 2023 NBA Finals?

As previously mentioned, the Nuggets open as heavy favorites to win the Finals and for good reason. They’ve most steamrolled opponents throughout the postseason, beating the Timberwolves in five and the Suns in six. The Suns did tie the series at 2-2 before Denver blew them out in the final two games. They swept the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, who were probably their toughest opponent.

Our model gives the Nuggets a 69% chance of beating the Heat and hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Though their shortest odds available are floating around -400, our probability makes them closer to -220 favorites, meaning the books have erased any potential value in a Nuggets outright ticket.

The Heat have been the Cinderella team of these playoffs. Securing their 8-seed spot via the play-in tournament, they toppled the No. 1 and 2 overall seeds to keep their improbable postseason run alive. It appeared as though they were on the brink of collapse after coughing up a 3-0 series lead to the Celtics who forced a Game 7 on their home floor. The Heat returned to their early-series form, however, and finished the job on Monday night.

The Heat can be found anywhere from +300 to +330 to win the Finals and get a 31% probability from our model. Their shortest odds of +300 imply a 25% probability, so we are still getting some good value.

How Should You Bet on the NBA Finals?

There are numerous betting markets for the NBA Finals, even with just a max of seven games on tap. Between outright winners, Finals MVP, scoring and other stat leaders, total games and series spreads, the options are bountiful.

The upside of this is that we have so many options to choose from, there is always a way to find value for a particular bet. If the Nuggets’ price to win is too high, then we’ll find another way to bet them at more appealing odds. The downside is that we have to hunt for this value, but that’s where we come in!

Be sure to utilize all of our NBA tools available. Check out our Best Props, NBA Trends, Futures odds and more through the Finals to ensure you’re betting with DimersBOT’s key insights every step of the way.

Betting on the Nuggets in the NBA Finals

If you think the Nuggets will win the Finals, it’s tough to justify betting on them at their expensive price of -400. Similarly, Nikola Jokic to win Finals MVP is in the realm of -350. Better odds than Denver to win, but it still requires you to lay some heavy juice to return anything significant.

You could bet on Jamal Murray to win MVP at +1200 if you’re looking for a longshot that’s not quite as unlikely as the odds suggest. Murray can easily score 30 points per game, which he averaged in the WCF against the Lakers. He racks up steals, assists and boards, a skillset that would almost lock him in as a top Finals MVP candidate on any other team, but he’ll have to outshine Nikola Jokic to secure this award.

Nikola Jokic is so much more than a scoring machine; he facilitates like no other big man in the league and is a beast on the boards. He’s a walking 60 PRAs in any given game, but if Murray can hit some clutch shots, or if Jokic were to sustain an injury or have even one off-night, the path to Finals MVP gets a little wider for Jamal Murray, making him worth a sprinkle.

If you’re not keen on either Finals MVP bet, consider backing the Nuggets on the series spread or looking to the number of games played. You can get the Nuggets to cover -1.5 games at -165, a much fairer price for a Nuggets series win, and covers three results (4-0, 4-1, 4-2). Think the Heat at least win a game or two? Give the Exact Series Games at BetMGM a look, where all four wagers are plus-money. You can also get the Over 5.5 total games at -145, which would cover you on either side of a 4-2 series.

How to Bet on the Heat in the NBA Finals

The Heat obviously present better value outright, but is that the best way to bet on them? You can get Jimmy Butler to win MVP for a slightly better price (+350) at BetMGM, an occurrence that seems highly likely should the Heat pull out the series win. Realistically, there’s no one else on the Heat worth betting on for the Finals MVP. If you’re afraid of missing out, you can drop some lunch money on Caleb Martin (+5000) and Bam Adebayo (+5500) but honestly, if Jimmy Butler’s Finals performance is unworthy of the MVP award, then the Nuggets will have plowed their way through the series.

If you want to back the Heat in another fashion, one interesting market to look at is the exact series score. Your lowest odds here are +750 for a Heat 4-2 series win, and you can get 4-3 Miami for +950. This is extremely appealing because you’re getting more than double the value of a Heat win or Butler MVP. Additionally, based on the eye test alone, a Heat sweep or Denver winning just one game seems highly unlikely, opening the door for some great value in those two results.

Be sure to check back for more NBA Finals betting content before Game 1 tips off on Thursday night!