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NBA Picks & Predictions | Free Basketball Betting Cheatsheet
Check out the NBA betting insights the Dimers data analysts have extracted from tonight's NBA games.
If you're looking to make informed NBA bets tonight, on Friday November 15, we’ve analyzed the latest trends, prop bets, and first basket probabilities to help you maximize your chances. Here’s your comprehensive NBA predictions cheatsheet for tonight’s NBA action.
NBA Betting Cheatsheet
With this cheatsheet, you have all the key insights to place well-informed bets tonight. Good luck, and may your picks bring in big wins!
NBA First Basket
Predicting the first basket can be tricky, but some players stand out as more likely to score early based on recent trends:
- Brandon Ingram (NOR) leads with a 17.64% chance of scoring first, making him a prime candidate for first basket bets.
- Franz Wagner (ORL) and Victor Wembanyama (SAN) follow closely, with probabilities of 16.79% and 16.56%, respectively.
- Tyler Herro (MIA) at 15.98% and Anthony Edwards (MIN) at 15.85% round out the top five.
Consider betting on one of these players to get the opening score in their games. Ingram’s odds are the highest, so this could be the best choice for maximizing returns if he starts strong.
Best Prop Bets for Tonight
The following prop bets have been identified as high-probability outcomes with good value:
Myles Turner Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (Pacers vs. Heat, 7 PM)
- Projection: 3.7
- Probability: 69.5%
- Edge: 7.7%
- Turner has been hitting from beyond the arc consistently, so the over on 3-pointers is a solid choice here.
Draymond Green Over 5.5 Total Assists (Warriors vs. Grizzlies, 10 PM)
- Projection: 8.7
- Probability: 66.6%
- Edge: 11.0%
- Green’s playmaking is expected to shine tonight, making this a high-value bet.
- Draymond Green Over 5.5 Total Assists (Warriors vs. Grizzlies, 10 PM)
Darius Garland Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (Cavaliers vs. Bulls, 7:30 PM)
- Projection: 3.8
- Probability: 63.9%
- Garland’s shooting has been reliable, so betting on him to hit three or more 3-pointers could pay off.
Franz Wagner Under 26.5 Points Scored (Magic vs. 76ers, 7 PM)
- Projection: 19.3
- Probability: 63.5%
- Wagner is projected to score under his line, so the under on his points scored looks favorable.
Jalen Duren Over 11.5 Total Rebounds (Pistons vs. Raptors, 7 PM)
- Projection: 13.9
- Probability: 63.1%
- Duren’s rebounding is expected to be strong, making the over on his total boards a smart bet.
Trending Team & Player Stats
These trends highlight player performance and provide additional insights for tonight’s games:
- Patrick Williams (CHI vs. CLE) has collected more than 4.5 rebounds in 9 of his last 11 appearances. Look at the over for his rebounds in this matchup.
- Buddy Hield (MEM vs. GSW) has scored more than 12.5 points in 9 of his last 12 appearances, making the over on his points an appealing choice.
- Derrick Jones Jr. (LAC vs. HOU) has scored over 8.5 points in 9 of his last 11 games, suggesting he might exceed this line tonight.
- Trey Murphy III (DEN vs. NOP) has recorded fewer than 2.5 assists in 8 of his last 10 appearances. Betting on the under for assists could yield good value.
Additional notable trends include:
- Kyle Kuzma (WAS vs. ATL) has scored fewer than 18.5 points in 8 of his last 11 appearances. This trend suggests a possible under on his points.
- Andrew Wiggins (MEM vs. GSW) has recorded more than 1.5 assists in 9 of his last 11 games, making the over on assists a strong option.
- Jabari Smith Jr. (LAC vs. HOU) has recorded fewer than 0.5 assists in 6 of his last 10 games, making the under on assists likely.
- Trey Murphy III (DEN vs. NOP) has scored fewer than 15.5 points in 7 of his last 10 appearances. Betting the under on his points scored is a trend to consider.
Moneyline, Spread, Over/Under
Here’s a look at some notable moneyline, spread and totals predictions based on simulation data:
Moneyline Bets to Consider:
Pacers (67%) vs. Heat (33%)
Lakers (61%) vs. Spurs (39%)
Nets (23%) vs. Knicks (77%)
Grizzlies (28%) vs. Warriors (72%)
Spread Bets to Consider:
Bulls +10.5 vs. Cavaliers - Probability: 55.3%, Edge: 2.9%
Wizards +9.0 vs. Hawks - Probability: 54.8%, Edge: 2.9%
Suns +7.5 vs. Thunder - Probability: 53.6%, Edge: 2.3%
Over/Under Bet to Consider:
Wizards vs. Hawks - Under 242 Points - Probability: 54.2%, Edge: 2.9%
Betting Strategy:
- Target High-Probability Props: The props for Myles Turner, Draymond Green, and Darius Garland have high probabilities and good edges. Combining these in a parlay could increase your payout while minimizing risk.
- First Basket Bets: Players like Brandon Ingram, Franz Wagner, and Victor Wembanyama have a higher likelihood of scoring the first basket. This is a fun, high-risk, high-reward type of bet if you’re looking to start your night with excitement.
- Leverage Game Spread Predictions: Based on the simulations, bets on teams like the Pacers, Lakers, Knicks, and Warriors to cover their spreads are promising options. Additionally, consider the Bulls, Wizards, and Suns for potential spread covers based on their probabilities.
- Follow Trending Stats: The trends show consistent patterns for players like Patrick Williams (over on rebounds), Buddy Hield (over on points), and Trey Murphy III (under on assists and points). Integrating these trends into your betting strategy can give you an edge.