The 10 Best NBA Player Prop Bets & First Basket Predictions For Monday

We've dived deep into our predictive analytics model, otherwise known as DimersBOT, to identify the best odds and betting opportunities, plus the best NBA player props and first basket predictions for Monday November 14, 2022. Using the world renowned Monte Carlo method, we have simulated every major pro and college sport over 10,000 times to produce NBA predictions that paint the clearest picture of what is likely to occur in any given game, and which players will contribute to those predictions either hitting or missing. We then use these suggested NBA prop bets and match them against the sportsbooks' odds to identify where we have a betting edge, and where we believe the odds makers have got it wrong in their assessment of an NBA matchup.

Using the Total Points, Rebounds, Assists, Three-Pointers, Blocks, Steals, Turnovers and First Basket player prop markets, and then matching them against the results of our simulations, gives us a massive opportunity to identify the 10 best player prop bets for Monday, with the biggest edges, to throw our cash down on today.

For NBA prop bets from EVERY game being played today, check out our NBA Prop Bets generator to find yourself today's best plays.

NBA Player Props Monday

Raptors vs. Pistons

BET: Saddiq Bey Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+152)

DimersBOT has Bey hitting 2.9 threes tonight so, at odds of +154, betting his Over 2.5 threes gives us a huge edge of 14.6%. We need to place this bet at FanDuel Sportsbook. You can register an account here and score a $1,000 risk-free bet.

Raptors vs. Pistons

BET: Scottie Barnes Under 7.5 Total Assists (-120)

The super computer has Barnes dishing just 4.1 dimes tonight so, at odds of -120, betting Under 7.5 assists gives us an edge of 12.8%. To get max bang for our buck we need to place this bet at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonuses from a $5 money line bet. Claim it here.

Hawks vs. Bucks

BET: Trae Young Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+106)

Our predictive analytics model has Trae down for 3.4 triples tonight against the Bucks, so with odds of +106 available we should bet his Over 2.5 threes line with at PointsBet, where we have a 10.5% edge. New PointsBet customers can score 5x $100 risk-free bets by joining today right here.

Hornets vs. Magic

BET: Terry Rozier Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-132)

Our super computer loves the value on Rozier getting at least three threes, at odds of -132. It currently has an edge of 10.5% vs. our prediction of 4.3 3-pointers. To take full advantage of this edge we need to place this bet at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonuses from a $5 money line bet. Claim it here.

Clippers vs. Rockets

BET: Reggie Jackson Over 5.5 Total Assists (-110)

We predict Jackson will have 7.3 dimes in the Clippers' matchup with the Rockets, so based on the -110 odds available, the Over presents a nice edge of 7.8% against his line of 5.5. To ensure we get full bang for our buck here, we need to place this bet with PointsBet, where new customers can score 5x $100 risk-free bets by joining today right here.

For NBA prop bets from EVERY game being played today, check out our NBA Prop Bets generator to find yourself today's best plays.

Hawks vs. Bucks

BET: Dejounte Murray Over 6.5 Total Assists (-125)

We love Murray to dish at least seven dimes (we have him down for 8.7) tonight against the Bucks, so with odds of -125 available we should bet his Over 6.5 assists line with DraftKings Sportsbook where we have a 6.9% edge. You can register a DraftKings account here and score $200 in bonuses from a $5 money line bet.

Thunder vs. Celtics

BET: Jayson Tatum Under 7.5 Total Rebounds (+112)

DimersBOT has Tatum only getting 6.8 boards, following 10,000 simulations, tonight against OKC, so at odds of +112, betting his Under on rebounds gives us a tasty edge of 6.6%. We need to place this bet at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can score $200 in bonuses from a $5 money line bet.

Clippers vs. Rockets

BET: Reggie Jackson Over 14.5 Points Scored (-104)

Our predictive analytics model thinks the -104 odds on Jackson to have Over 14.5 points are too good to pass up at DraftKings Sportsbook. This Over represents a big edge of 6.4% and is a bet we can place with confidence. If you aren't already on DraftKings, you can score $200 in bonuses from a $5 money line bet.

Raptors vs. Pistons

BET: OG Anunoby Under 20.5 Points Scored (+100)

In over 10,000 different simulations of the Raptors-Pistons game, we have Anunoby notching just 17.8 points tonight so, at odds of +100, betting his Under 20.5 points total gives us a tempting edge of 5.7% with PointsBet, where new customers can score 5x $100 risk-free bets by joining today right here.

Thunder vs. Celtics

BET: Jayson Tatum Under 30.5 Points Scored (-110)

DimersBOT is fading Tatum tonight, marking him down to have 26.7 points and at odds of -110 to stay under his line of 30.5. This presents an 5.5% edge at DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can register an account here and score $200 in bonuses from a $5 money line bet.

For NBA prop bets from EVERY game being played today, check out our NBA Prop Bets generator to find yourself today's best plays.

PLAYER	BET	EDGE
Saddiq Bey	o2.5 Threes (+152)	14.6%
Scottie Barnes	u7.5 Assists (-120)	12.8%
Trae Young	o2.5 Threes (+106)	10.5%
Terry Rozier	o2.5 Threes (-132)	10.5%
Reggie Jackson	o5.5 Assists (-110)	7.3%
Dejounte Murray	o6.5 Assists (-125)	6.9%
Jayson Tatum	u7.5 Rebs (+180)	6.6%
Reggie Jackson	o14.5 Points (+180)	6.4%
OG Anunoby	u20.5 Points (+100)	5.7%
Jayson Tatum	o1.5 Steals (-110)	5.5%

NBA First Basket Plays For Monday

In recent times, NBA first basket bets have become one of the more popular prop bets for sports bettors to wager on. All of the major sportsbooks offer NBA odds on first basket scorer, so by using our predictive analytics model to identify where the edges lie on Monday, November 14, you're giving yourself an advantage over the rest of the field.

Our super computer identifies both value bets and the players with the highest probabilities. While all the usual suspects will often feature in our NBA first basket predictions, it is unlikely you will ever see the likes of Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Jason Tatum or Giannis listed as 'value bets' because the odds the sportsbooks put up for those guys are always extremely efficient - and that's where we come in.

FIRST BASKET PREDICTION	PROBABILITY
G. Antetokounmpo (MIL)	17.97% chance
Stephen Curry (GS)	16.81% chance
S.Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)	16.60% chance
Jayson Tatum (BOS)	15.18% chance
Devin Booker (PHO)	14.92% chance
Paul George (LAC)	14.21% chance
OG Anunoby (TOR)	13.87% chance
Deandre Ayton (PHO)	13.75% chance
Jaylen Brown (BOS)	13.67% chance
Bojan Bogdanovic (DET)	12.90% chance
Tyler Herro (MIA)	12.87% chance
Devin Vassell (SAN)	12.65% chance
Alperen Sengun (HOU)	12.58% chance
Keldon Johnson (SAN)	12.54% chance
Bam Adebayo (MIA)	12.52% chance
Trae Young (ATL)	12.35% chance
Dejounte Murray (ATL)	12.33% chance
Gary Trent (TOR)	12.27% chance
Jalen Green (HOU)	12.14% chance
Terry Rozier (CHR)	12.00% chance

NBA First Basket Value Bets Today

Based on the above first basket scorer probabilities, the players listed below represent the most value to score the first basket in NBA games on Monday, November 14, 2022. While it's obviously impossible for all of these guys to cash tickets for us, we actually don't need them to.

Given some of the first basket odds available, we'd only need one or two of these to hit for us to earn a nice payout.

While the sportsbooks focus on the top two or three guys from each game, we're able to evaluate every player, in every game, to unearth the edges that will give us the upper hand when it comes to long-term profitability.

Remember, the key to long term success when betting is being able to identify where there is an edge in the market, in other words, when the sportsbooks' odds aren't a true reflection of the actual likelihood of something happening.

FIRST BASKET VALUE	PROBABILITY	DRAFTKINGS ODDS
Bojan Bogdanovic (Pistons)	12.90%	+900
Dejounte Murray (Hawks)	12.33%	+950
Alperen Sengun (Rockets)	12.58%	+900
Bol Bol (Magic)	9.74%	+1200
Aleksej Pokusevski (Thunder)	8.54%	+1400
Kelly Oubre (Hornets)	10.85%	+1000