MLB: What’s the No. 1 Factor When Betting Home Runs?

In the world of sports gambling, few events ignite as much excitement and anticipation as the crack of a home run in a ballpark on a hot summer's day or night. That beautiful sound, the soaring ball, and the potential for massive wins have made betting on dingers a beloved pastime for many enthusiasts as they fill the void until the return of sports like football and basketball.

But as the appetite for betting home runs continues to grow among new and old time bettors alike, one big question remains: what exactly is the No. 1 factor when trying to figure out which guy is about to blast off?

Of course, you already know that Dimers.com has an insane home run predictor that is generating consistently huge results for our readers, based upon our simulation model's projections; but what about the handicappers out there that pour over pages and pages of data to find the guys that are homering?

We've delved deep into the minds of three renowned home run handicappers to explore the number one factor these experts value when researching home run bets, shedding light on the strategies behind this exhilarating niche in the gambling world.

RELATED: Dimers' MLB Home Run Predictor

If you haven't already, sign up for DraftKings ➡️ here ⬅️ as you can turn a $5 pre-game moneyline bet on any game into $150 in bonus bets if your team wins. It is by far the best promo out there to build some bankroll to bet on home runs.

The No. 1 Factor When Betting MLB Home Runs

@degenEli from Goldboys and degenelytics.com 

“Home Runs are hard” 

I’ve found myself saying that a lot this year. The dinger market is potentially the most fun while gambling on sports. The good nights are some of the best nights you’ll ever have, but those often come with several days of getting nothing right. When people ask me for tips on being profitable betting dingers, this is what I always say first. Stay consistent, and don’t let a few losing days in a row discourage you.  

We have more data available for baseball than most of the other sports combined. This makes it very easy to get overwhelmed with acronyms, stats, and numbers that 95% of the population don’t understand. This is what makes baseball great but is also part of why it’s hard.  When I’m handicapping home runs, two metrics have the majority of my focus; exit velocity and launch angle. How many baseballs has this guy hit harder than 95mph? How many harder than 100mph? Among those, how many were ground balls or pop ups? Using degenelytics.com, I can see a full log of every batted ball from every player. MLB defines a “Hard hit ball” as any ball over 95mph, and Fangraphs tells us that 85% of home runs are hit with a launch angle between 20 and 35. If I see a player with several batted balls in the last few days within those ranges but none of them have been a home run, I define that guy as being “due,” and a good target for home runs.

MORE: Our Best Bets for MLB and MLS, Every Single Day

Another important factor in home run betting is the pitching matchup. I do think a hot bat is far more important than the opposing starting pitcher, but we do still have to consider this.  Generally speaking, a right-handed hitter will perform much better against a left-handed pitcher, and vice versa. Among the list of targets we defined in the previous step, how many are facing a pitcher of the opposite hand that also is susceptible to allowing home runs? 

@WacPatty from Double Down Discord

Betting Home Runs is probably the most popular wager when betting on the MLB. The odds are juicy and it’s the most unpredictable and exciting part of the game. When I am looking at who to bet for the night, I like to look at the hitters' splits and how they fair vs. each hand. A prime example of this is when I see a batter who hits .300 and 10 HRs vs. left-handed pitching compared to the same batter who is only hitting .250 with 1 HR vs. right-handed pitching. I am definitely looking to bet that player when he’s facing a left-handed ace. 

Keep in mind, I also like to see who is on the mound as well. If I have Washington’s Patrick Corbin (lefty) on the mound and he’s facing that batter who has the .300 average with 10 HRs vs. lefties, give me that all day long.

@Paranormal_Bass from Plus Money Discord

A fun way to find some value if you have time on your hands is to check out Baseball Savant and take a look at the pitcher’s arsenal. See what his primary pitch is to RHB or LHB. If the pitcher has poor splits vs. lefties, take a look at what he's been throwing to them. Then take a look at the one or two sluggers that hit from that side of the plate and see how they fare vs. that specific pitch. Once in a while you might see a perfect match. 

If you're in a pinch the basic stats ESPN gives on the app is a good start. Look at the batter splits (vs. lefties or righties) and the pitcher’s splits. You get a decent idea what guy is gonna feel comfortable at the plate that game. 

Lastly, if there's a slugger in a slump and you see their walks starting to increase they're usually on the brink and seeing the ball well again. Good time to target someone who is "due".

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.