MLB Saturday Home Run Props Parlay - May 20, 2023

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Saturday, May 20. Tonight's parlay features players from the Orioles vs. Blue Jays and Athletics vs. Astros games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Saturday's Top MLB Props

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MLB +1462 Home Run Parlay For Saturday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ HR	+340
Yordan Alvarez 1+ HR	+255

Saturday MLB Parlay Analysis

Orioles vs. Blue Jays, 3:07PM ET

LEG 1: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ HR (+390) with DraftKings

It's hard to believe but Vladdy is looking for his first home run since May 4th. He's been anything but cold at the dish, however, as he's still batting .311 with some of the most power potential in all of MLB. The Blue Jays are in freefall right now, having lost 11 out of their past 15 games, including 8 to AL East opponents. If they don't step up soon, their playoff hopes could be dashed in a competitive division. Our model is giving Guerrero Jr. a 29.4% tonight with the highest +EV on the board at 9%.

For a guy chasing his first home run in two weeks, you could not ask for a better matchup than the Orioles' Grayson Rodriguez (6.57 ERA) right now. He's given up seven home runs in three May starts, at least two in each. His Statcast bleeds blue (bottom percentile) in every Home Run applicable category. Lock in Vladdy for home run #1.

*Note the odds moved while publishing form +390 to +340*

⚾️ Orioles vs. Blue Jays Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Orioles vs. Blue Jays

 

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Athletics vs. Astros, 4:10PM ET

LEG 2: Yordan Alvarez 1+ HR (+255) with DraftKings

The biggest probability we've seen almost this entire season, Alvarez gets a monstrous 34.2% probability to hit a home run, and even at the short odds, gets a 6% edge over the book. It's no surprise why, either, considering he gets a matchup with the A's JP Sears (5.27 ERA), a regular target of this column.

Sears has given up 11 (!) home runs this season, allowing at least one in every game he's started except one. Alvarez has tree trunk arms and some of the rawest power at the plate that we've ever seen. The odds are short and as a result, offer a milder parlay payout than we're used to, but we simply can't ignore these numbers.

⚾️ Athletics vs. Astros Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Athletics vs. Astros

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Saturday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

MORE: Saturday's MLB Game Predictions

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MLB +1462 Home Run Parlay Saturday, May 20, 2023

1️⃣ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ HR
2️⃣ Yordan Alvarez 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing