MLB Saturday Home Run Props Parlay - May 13, 2023

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Saturday, May 13. Tonight's parlay features players from the Dodgers vs. Padres and Red Sox vs. Cardinals games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Saturday's Top MLB Props

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MLB +3020 Home Run Parlay For Saturday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Rafael Devers 1+ HR	+550
Max Muncy 1+ HR	+380

Saturday MLB Parlay Analysis

Red Sox vs. Cardinals, 4:10PM ET

LEG 1: Rafael Devers 1+ HR (+550) with DraftKings

After scorching 10 home runs in the month of April, Rafael Devers has managed a single home run through ten games in May. That total of 11 is still good enough for a share of fourth place on MLB's HR leaderboard, and Devers is simply too good to go cold for long. He gets the second-high HR probability today based on our model, sitting at 27.3% good enough for the highest +EV on the slate at +11.9%. +550 is too good of a price for a player as talented as Devers.

Let's touch on his pitching matchup with the Cardinals' Steven Matz (5.70 ERA). Matz generally profiles as a home run pitcher, prone to high exit velocity and hard-hit balls. Raffy has faced Matz nine times in his career, picking up four hits. He has yet to launch a home run against the lefthander, but today's a good to day get his first at his home ballpark in Fenway.

⚾️ Red Sox vs. Cardinals Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Red Sox vs. Cardinals

 

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Dodgers vs. Padres, 7:15PM ET

LEG 2: Max Muncy 1+ HR (+380) with DraftKings

Another player at the top of the Home Run table is Max Muncy, who sits in a second-place tie with the Cubs' Patrick Wisdom at 12 apiece. The Dodgers' hot-corner hero is in a bit of a slump, netting a single home run so far in May and has seen his average dip in recent weeks. DimersBOT predicts a rebound game in the cards for Muncy, who gets the third-highest probability from our model at 26.3%, good enough for a 5.4% edge on the books.

He has a career .360 batting average over 33 plate appearances against the Padres' Joe Musgrove who toes the rubber for San Diego tonight. Musgrove (6.75 ERA) is having a weird season. His analytics are mostly sound but he allowed four home runs in his first two starts, before turning in a solid five innings against this Dodgers team last week. Muncy should be able to lean on his experience and attack a vulnerable Musgrove tonight in Dodger Stadium.

⚾️ Dodgers vs. Padres Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Dodgers vs. Padres

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Saturday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

MORE: Saturday's MLB Game Predictions

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MLB +3020 Home Run Parlay Saturday, May 13, 2023

1️⃣ Rafael Devers 1+ HR
2️⃣ Max Muncy 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing