MLB Monday Home Run Props Parlay - May 2, 2023

We're in the early days of the second month of the MLB season and unloading our MLB Home Run Parlay for Tuesday, May 2. Tonight's parlay features players from the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays game as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Tuesday's MLB Parlay from Calling Our Shot

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MLB +2800 Home Run Parlay For Tuesday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ HR	+425
Rafael Devers 1+ HR	+500

Tuesday MLB Parlay Analysis

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays, 7:10PM ET

LEG 1: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ HR (+425) with DraftKings

With better odds than we usually get on Vladito, we're going with the Blue Jays slugger for our first leg. Our model is giving him a 27.3% chance to go yard tonight and backs up the good price with an 8.3% edge. Vladdy's season stats in the home run department don't seem to reflect his potential. His max exit velocity is in the top 1% of the league and on average in the top 4%.

He's making extremely consistent contact, having failed to collect a hit in just six games this season. It's been seven games since he's had a home run, and everything points to him being due.

His pitching matchup is fair, facing Tanner Houck (4.50 ERA), who is average-to-poor in the categories in which Guerrero Jr. excels. He's not an extreme home run pitcher, but he's not the kind to contain the power that is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

⚾️ Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays

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LEG 2: Rafael Devers 1+ HR (+500) with DraftKings

This was originally Shohei Ohtani at +600, but he's since been ruled out of the lineup. We're going t keep it in the same game and go with Rafael Devers at +500. This game is also our Dinger Tuesday target for the week, so we're keeping with the theme.

Devers gets a 21.8% chance to hit a bomb tonight, and he gets a great matchup against Blue Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, who should serve up multiple opportunities in the hitter-friendly space that is Fenway Park.

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Tuesday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

MORE: Tuesday's Top MLB Props

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MLB +2800 Home Run Parlay Tuesday, May 2, 2023

1️⃣ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR
2️⃣ Rafael Devers HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing