MLB Monday Home Run Props Parlay - 1 May, 2023

A new week begins in the MLB and we're looking to start it off right with our MLB Home Run Parlay for Monday, May 1. Tonight's parlay features players from the Padres vs. Reds and Dodgers vs. Phillies games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Monday's MLB Best Bets and Parlay

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+2110 MLB Home Run Parlay For Monday

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Fernando Tatis 1+ HR	+240
Will Smith 1+ HR	+550

Monday MLB Parlay Analysis

Padres vs. Reds 9:40PM ET

LEG 1: Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ HR (+240) with DraftKings

Look, at face value, these odds are not appealing on their own. +240 implies a 29.3% probability for a home run, and we really like to see longer odds on high-variance occurrences like home runs. so why are we using Fernando Tatis Jr. as our first leg? Because our predictive model gives Tatis Jr. a mammoth 43.2% chance to go yard tonight in PetCo Park. That's a fair price of +131, well below the odds offered by DraftKings (the best price for a Tatis HR tonight, by the way).

The pitching could not be better for El Niño. Through two starts this year, Reds righthander Luke Weaver has a bloated 7.71 ERA and has allowed five home runs. He sits in the bottom-most percentile in all of MLB in HardHit% and Average Exit Velocity. We're locking in 'Nando to go yard tonight.

Side note, our model absolutely loves the Padres lineup to hit some dingers tonight. It's worth placing a bet on a few sluggers in this or even mixing up a little Slam Diego parlay.

⚾️ Padres vs. Reds Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Padres vs. Reds

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Dodgers vs. Phillies, 10:10PM ET

LEG 2: Will Smith 1+ HR (+550) with DraftKings

Will Smith hit a home run in three consecutive games to start the year but has been quiet since. He's managed a hit in all but three games this year, however, and maintains the ability to launch one out of the park on any given night. Our model gives him a 21.1% chance to hit a home run, with a 6.0% edge in the odds.

His pitching matchup is a solid one, as he faces Taijuan Walker who has a middling 4.97 ERA, and has given up three home runs in his last two starts. With the wind blowing outwards in a hitter's paradise like Dodger Stadium, Will Smith claims leg number two of tonight's parlay.

⚾️ Dodgers vs. Phillies Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Dodgers vs. Phillies

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Monday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

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MLB Props Parlay Monday, May 1, 2023

1️⃣ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR
2️⃣ Will Smith HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing