MLB in London: Will Cardinals vs. Cubs Be High Scoring This Weekend?

Major League Baseball will return to the United Kingdom for the first time in four years this weekend, bringing their MLB International Games to London where the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs will face off in a two-game series at London Stadium.

Recently, games played internationally have resulted in slugfests, including the last time the MLB went to London when the Yankees and Red Sox combined for 50 runs in two games in 2019, as well as earlier this season when the Padres and Giants scored 37 combined runs in their two-game series in Mexico City.

That’s got us asking: is this weekend across the pond going to be a goldmine for Over bettors? 

We find out.

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Will There Be Runs in Cardinals vs. Cubs This Weekend?

The London Stadium Field Dimensions

Since the MLB’s trip to the UK last time, some things have changed in the lead up to this weekend’s series; namely the field dimensions.

The center field wall will be moved back from 385 feet in 2019, to 392 feet - seven feet deeper than the series that produced nine home runs over two days four years ago. The left and right field lines will remain unchanged, however, staying at 330 feet deep on each side.

A 58-minute first inning in London!
Both starting pitchers already pulled.
It's 6-6. 😮 #LondonSeries

(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/VN6tuljpVp

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) June 29, 2019

How does the revised measurements of 330-392-330 compare to the ballparks back home? London Stadium’s dimensions will still be one of the shortest when compared to stadiums in the US, almost exactly mirroring Dodger Stadium in L.A. which has field dimensions of 330-395-330.

That comparison is important to note. According to MLB Statcast, Dodger Stadium is ranked second, only behind Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark, as the baseball stadium with the highest tendency for home runs in the league over a three-year rolling period from 2020-2023.

Of course, as we all know, the climate in Los Angeles would play a factor in that ranking - and the weather comparisons between L.A. and London could not be more stark generally. However, this weekend, LDN is expecting hot temperatures of 82 and 87 degrees on Saturday and Sunday respectively; potentially perfect conditions for some dingers.

Saturday Recap

The sportsbooks acted upon the history of Red Sox/Yankees in 2019, setting a 14.5 over/under line on Saturday, a game that the Cubs won 9-1 with Ian Happ (x2) and Dansby Swanson being the only guys to homer. Justin Steele continued his impressive form on the mound for the Cubbies this season, giving up just 1 ER and racking up eight strikeouts from 6IP. All in all, it just didn't eventuate as the 'books were anticipating with the field dimensions not really coming into play. 

Cardinals vs. Cubs Best Bets

Cardinals vs. Cubs, Sunday 10:10AM 

TOTAL: UNDER 11.5 Runs (-120 with DraftKings) 

Unsurprisingly, the oddsmakers have reacted to yesterday's game falling well short of the mark, adjusting the over/under line for Sunday's London Series sequel to 11.5 runs after opening at 12. Even still, just like yesterday, the Over is not a bet that our model is liking, instead favoring the Under with a 58% probability. 

Chicago will once again be sending one of their best pitchers to the mound with Marcus Stroman (9-4, 2.28 ERA) getting the start. Stroman has rarely had a bad start this season, only giving up more than two earned runs twice in his 16 appearances on the bump. It would take a big performance from the Cards' hitters to break down the Cubs; something they weren't capable of doing yesterday.

On the other side of the equation, St. Louis are sending out Matthew Liberatore to the mound. Liberatore has been more expensive than Stroman this season, operating on a 6.12 ERA, but he doesn't give up too many home runs, only allowing two from six appearances in the majors in 2023. Once again, a great opportunity is there for bettors to take advantage of an inflated total.

BEST HOME RUN BET: Paul Goldschmidt (+330 with DraftKings) 

While the pitching match up is strong in this one, our model is siding with a Cardinal to break down an impressive Stroman in Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy is listed by our home run predictor as the most likely home run hitter of the game with a 33.6% probability, detecting a 10.5% edge on the sportsbook odds. 

The St. Louis slugger has a nice record against Stroman, batting at a formidable .444 avg from 18 previous career ABs, to go along with three home runs and seven RBIs. The Cardinals will be looking for a response and Goldschmidt is well placed to make an impact.

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Cardinals vs. Cubs, Saturday 1:10PM 

TOTAL: UNDER 14.5 Runs (-110 with DraftKings) ✅

Yes, the field dimensions of London Stadium might mean we get a couple of extra dingers (we're definitely getting to that a little further down in this article), but our model suggests the enlarged total of 14.5 runs - that is a total isn't even set at a place like Coors Field - is a little too high for this series opener on Saturday.

Additionally, the Cubs will be sending one of their best to the mound in Justin Steele (7-2, 2.71 ERA). Steele has been stifling when it comes to allowing home runs this season, giving up just three in his 13 starts. 

Our prediction model has assessed the Under as a 61% chance of hitting in Game 1.

BEST HOME RUN BET: Ian Happ (+425 with DraftKings) ✅

With all of that said, we still think we'll see some dingers on Saturday afternoon with our home run predictor identifying Dansby Swanson as the best value play at +425, with our model detecting a 12.7% edge on those odds. Happ has made a career out of bashing starting Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright out of ballparks, batting at a .344 avg against the 41-year-old, hitting him yard on four previous occasions. Wainwright has only struckout the Chicago slugger just five times in 32 ABs. If Happ can get the ball in play and take advantage of the small field dimensions, another notch on his belt beckons.

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