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MLB Home Run Round Robin Parlay - Wednesday, May 8
It's time to chase those home runs on Wednesday, May 8! As you're likely aware, we love our home run props at Dimers. From single edge plays to round robins and "Dinger Tuesday", we're always on the hunt for the next guy (or guys) to go yard on any given MLB night.
If you follow us on Twitter/X, then you know we drop Home Run Round Robins every day that we have the data available to do so. You can read our detailed guide into Round Robin strategy here, and it's not just exclusive to baseball, either!
You can find upwards of 50+ home run props on full game days within Dimers Pro. While we lean on our Dimers Pro data to identify our favorite round robin targets, we use a multitude of resources to narrow down our "final five" from the DimersBOT selections.
In an effort to continue building up our content offerings, as well as give you further insight into our Round Robin process, we're going to roll out this daily article as a companion piece to the final round Robin parlay we go with.
MORE: How to Build Home Run Parlays with Dimers Pro
Depending on when you check this article throughout the day, you'll find updates including our earliest HR Prop edges available, our short list of potential candidates before we narrow them down, and finally, our five picks with a little insight into why we chose them.
Let's get right into it!
Best Home Run Prop Bets - Wednesday, May 8
Below, you'll find the Top 5 Home Run Prop edges available to Dimers Pro as of 10:00 AM ET this morning. More often than not, at least one or two of these players will find their way into our final round robin play.
RELATED: Detailed Home Run Round Robin Strategy
Today's Home Run Targets
On first glance, these are the players we'll be researching today, Wednesday, May 8. These may come from our top probabilities, hot hitters, good matchups - whatever stands out first. Some may get added into this list, while others are taken off as we dig deeper into our data. This list will populate throughout the day, so check back later if it's blank!
With a lot of afternoon games today, we'll likely be targeting the nighttime games, however we'll still put the guys we like here if you're inclined for some afternoon action.
Potential Home Run Picks - May 8, 2024 |
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Oneil Cruz (PIT) |
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) |
Fernando Tatis Jr (SD) |
Christopher Morel (CHC) |
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) |
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) |
Jorge Soler (SF) |
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) |
Cal Raleigh (SEA) |
Best Home Run Matchups - May 8
Here's a quick look at what stands out from our additional research - vulnerable pitchers, hot hitters, good weather, etc.
- Favorable weather:
- Bullpens allowing the most HR: Rays, Blue Jays (22), Angels (19), Reds, White Sox, Marlins (18)
- Pitcher targets: C. Rodon (NYY), C. Flexen (CWS)
- Sneaky Hot Hitters (3+ HR last 7 days): C. Morel (CHC), M. Muncy (LAD), S. Ohtani (LAD), W. Adames (MIL), R. Arozarena (TB), B. Harper (PHI), T. Hernandez (LAD), C. Raleigh (SEA), B. Rooker (OAK), K. Tucker (HOU)
Home Run Picks for Wednesday, May 8
Below you'll find the five home run props we're looking at for our Wednesday night Round Robin Parlay. Once we confirm as many lineups as possible, we'll share it on social, but if you catch it here first, this is our expected play.
Pick 1: Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+400)
Our man came through for us yesterday and we're hoping he can go back-to-back for us with another tonight. Paredes gets our highest probability with an edge in tonight's games at 24% - if you want someone higher, you're paying a premium between +200 and +250 for guys like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna.
Paredes gets the White Sox RHP Chris Flexen, who's allowed five homers this year, Isaac favors righties with all 8 of his dingers off of them and will have late opportunities with the Sox's vulnerable bullpen.
⚾ White Sox vs. Rays Betting Preview
Pick 2: Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+400)
Our Oriole didn't come through for us yesterday but we're looking at another hitter from Birdland and that's the O's second-year slugger who's got 10 homers already. Gunnar Henderson gets a 22% probability to go yard tonight, offering us a little value at his +400 odds. This matchup with Nats prospect Mitchell Parker doesn't jump off the page like others, but Henderson has proven he can crush with the best in the league.
⚾ Orioles vs. Nationals Betting Preview
Pick 3: Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+500)
There's a chance of rain in this game but the latest weather report doesn't bode as poorly as before. The electric young Elly De La Cruz draws an 18% probability to go yard tonight, making his fair price around +450 for a little bit of value.
Elly has hit eight home runs this season with a Barrel % in the 94th percentile of MLB. He'll be up against the Diamondbacks' Jordan Montgomery who's allowed 3 HR in as many starts.
⚾ Diamondbacks vs. Reds Betting Preview
Pick 4: Jon Singleton to Hit a Home Run (+600)
This is a pick strongly based on pitching matchup, with the Yankees sending Carlos Rodon to the mound. Rodon ahs struggled with the home run ball, allowing six home runs, all to righthanded batters this year. He primarily leans on a fastball and Singleton has a .450 XSLG and 2 of his 3 home runs against the pitch this season. He's disciplined at the plate so he should be able to stretch his at-bats if needed and force Rodon to throw a dangerous meatball.
⚾ Astros vs. Yankees Betting Preview
Pick 5: Thairo Estrada to Hit a Home Run (+800)
Our final leg is a big edge, with Giants second-baseman Thairo Estrada getting a 15.4% probability form our model. That makes his fair price +550, which is what he's at on FanDuel, showing big value here.
Estrada has hit five home runs this year, all dumped over the left field fence. He's hit them all off of righthanders which he gets with the Rockies' Peter Lambert who's given up a pair this season. There could be some wind blowing in to contend with, but at this +EV, we're rolling the dice.
⚾ Giants vs. Rockies Betting Preview
Responsible Gambling
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