MLB Home Run Props for Dinger Tuesday, May 16: Two Games to Target

It’s Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel! Combining two of our favorite things, home runs and betting, this is practically a weekly holiday for baseball bettors. Let’s start the party.

RELATED: Tuesday’s AI Prop Picks

First things first: if you’re not signed up at FanDuel, head on over and do so ASAP. They’re offering new users $150 in bonus bets for placing just a $5 bet, win or lose. Combined with the Dinger Tuesday promotion, you could leave tonight’s slate with up to over $200 in bonus bets, an excellent bankroll builder for any recreational sports bettor.

What is Dinger Tuesday?

Dinger Tuesday is an exclusive promotion from FanDuel Sportsbook and one of the best promos across all of sports betting. Here’s how it works: place one $25+ bet on any player to hit a home run in any Tuesday night MLB game, and for every home run hit by either team in the game, you will earn $5 in bonus bets, up to a maximum of $25 per game.

In short, win or lose, you could potentially cash in $25 in bonus bets for every game in which you place a home run prop.

Note: Some users have a $25 per game cap while others may have a max cap of $50 in bonus bet winnings.

How should you bet Dinger Tuesday?

There are multiple approaches to this promo: you could place a bet on the most likely player to hit a home run in any given game; if they hit one, you cash in plus have the potential of bonus bet payouts for any additional home runs. You could also target a longshot with hopes of a massive payout and the chance to get some of your bet back if it loses. Either way, you want to target games with a high total and a stronger chance for home runs.

RELATED: Our +2420 Home Run Parlay for Tuesday

Regardless of which strategy you choose, we’ve identified a pair of AL East teams, the Red Sox and Orioles to target in their games as tonight’s best value for capitalizing on Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel. Below, you’ll find a preview of the game along with the players we’ve identified with a double-digit HR probability, as well as an edge over the book with their posted odds.

Angels vs. Orioles 6:40PM EST Preview

Best Orioles HR Props

Ryan O'Hearn	+800	19.9%
Austin Hays	+560	19.0%
Adley Rutschmann	+560	16.7%
Jorge Mateo	+800	14.4%

Mariners vs. Red Sox 7:10PM EST Preview

Best Red Sox HR Props

Player	Odds	Probability
Rafael Devers	+350	26.8%
Triston Casas	+520	20.8%
Connor Wong	+750	19.7%
Masataka Yoshida	+630	18.8%

There's a lot of value in some of these props, particularly the Orioles. For reference, Jorge Mateo has the lowest probability out of all of them and should still only be at +600. To get +800 value on a nearly 20% probability for Ryan O'Hearn is astounding.

It's no surprise that Rafael Devers has the shortest odds of the bunch, especially with greater than a 1 in 4 chance to go yard. He's still a solid pick in that game at those odds since the upside for home runs as a whole is high. Our model isn't projecting any value for the Mariners' bats since Nick Pivetta (6.23 ERA) is an easy target for Seattle, however, his vulnerability opens the door for us to rack up those bonus bets.

We see a similar situation in the Orioles-Angels game. All the value is on the Orioles batters because the Angels' powerful lineup gets to face Baltimore starter Dean Kremer, who is a home run waiting to happen. He's had three multi-homer games this year and faces the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout.

If you're fine passing on value, either of those studs are worth a bet in this one. We're siding with the massive edge we get in Ryan O'Hearn at +800 or Austin Hays at +560, who get a fair enough pitching matchup with Chase Silseth.

RELATED: Tuesday’s +239 MLB Parlay from @CallingOurShot

It’s worth noting that all of these home run props often have better odds on DraftKings and BetMGM, and sometimes significantly, but you won’t get the advantage of the Dinger Tuesday bonus bets. They are still recommended plays on the other books, especially with a larger payout.

For more MLB picks, insights and predictions, check out our full MLB Props page, utilize our customizable Parlay Picker and see our daily game-by-game predictions for the full slate.