MLB Friday Home Run Props Parlay - May 5, 2023

We've locked in two sluggers and generated another MLB Home Run Parlay for Friday, May 5. Tonight's parlay features players from the Phillies vs. Red Sox and Mets vs. Rockies games as we compare our MLB predictions data against the sportsbook lines to try and determine where we might have an edge over the 'books. Read on for our full analysis below, and don't forget to check out our brand-new free parlay generator for more great bets. 

MORE: Friday's MLB Parlay from Calling Our Shot

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MLB +2787 Home Run Parlay For Friday 

PARLAY PICKS	ODDS
Kyle Schwarber 1+ HR	+425
Pete Alonso 1+ HR	+450

Friday MLB Parlay Analysis

Phillies vs. Red Sox, 7:05PM ET

LEG 1: Kyle Schwarber 1+ HR (+425) with DraftKings

We're looking for a patented Schwar-bomb to get things started tonight. It wouldn't be the first time Kyle Schwarber has come through for us in the HR parlay and our model is giving him a great probability tonight at 29.5%. He returns to Fenway Park, where he's no stranger to mashing homers after a brief stint with the Red Sox in 2021.

Our model is in love with the entire Phillies lineup tonight, as they get a matchup with the Red Sox's one-time ace, Chris Sale (6.75 ERA). Sale has looked like a husk of what he used to be after two injury-hampered seasons and Tommy John surgery. He is coming off one of his better starts of the season, but he's allowed at least three hits in every game and he's been prone to power contact.

⚾️ Phillies vs. Red Sox Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Phillies vs. Red Sox

 

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Mets vs. Rockies, 7:10PM ET

LEG 2: Pete Alonso 1+ HR (+450) with DraftKings

MLB's home run leader for a good start of the season, Pete Alonso now shares a three-way split of second place on the leaderboard with 11. He's run into a bit of a cold streak at the dish, particularly when it comes to hitting bombs. Well, tonight could be just what Dr. Dinger ordered.

Alonso gets a 26.2% probability to hit a home run based on our model's predictive analytics, and even better, he gets a date with the Rockies' Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela is making his season debut after sustaining an ACL tear in 2022. Injury aside, Senzatela is just not very good. He was battered in his most recent rehab start, giving up nine runs and eight hits and his Statcast from 2022 is so rough, we have to show you. FYI, blue is bad:

This is as good a get-right spot for Alonso as they come. Let's start the weekend with some bangs!

⚾️ Mets vs. Rockies Predictions
📈 Betting preview: Mets vs. Rockies

Your game not here? Find out who we're betting on for every baseball game on Friday via our MLB Bet Hub, where we deliver you MLB predictions, suggested bets and MLB props, or check out the MLB Betting News section.

MORE: Friday's Top MLB Props

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MLB +2787 Home Run Parlay Friday, May 5, 2023

1️⃣ Kyle Schwarber 1+ HR
2️⃣ Pete Alonso 1+ HR

*All odds subject to change from time of publishing