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Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction: Miami Predicted to Win Following Latest Data Analysis for NFL Week 5 [2024]
NFL Week 5 action continues on Sunday at 1:00PM ET as the Miami Dolphins square off with the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) predicts the Dolphins as the most likely winner of today's game.
"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Dolphins-Patriots game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.
"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Dolphins with a win probability of 60%, while the Patriots have 40%."
Dolphins vs. Patriots Game-Day Updates and Essential Details
The NFL Week 5 matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00PM ET.
- Who: Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, October 6, 2024
- Time: 1:00PM ET/10:00AM PT
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- Tickets: Get tickets for the game on Ticketmaster
- Merchandise: Buy Patriots and Dolphins gear at Fanatics
- Live Stream: Watch this game on FOX via Hulu or FuboTV
Dimers.com's comprehensive preview of this week's Dolphins vs. Patriots matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Patriots vs. Dolphins picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
READER EXCLUSIVE: Sign up with code 20FOOTBALL at checkout right now to receive 20% off your first month of Dimers Pro! This offer won't last forever.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Dolphins and Patriots 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Dolphins a 60% chance of beating the Patriots in Week 5 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Dolphins winning 19-17.
According to our model, the Patriots (+2.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 37 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
In addition to our Dolphins vs. Patriots predictions, we've also prepared the following for today’s action:
Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds
We have researched the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Dolphins | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-105) | +2.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -130 | +112 |
| Total | o37 (-110) | u37 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Picks
Our model's biggest edge in today's Dolphins vs. Patriots matchup is on the moneyline.
Our expert predictions, matched against the best odds, reveal the best NFL picks for every game throughout the season.
Full access to our picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Dolphins vs. Patriots TD Scorers
Who will score the first touchdown in Dolphins vs. Patriots?
According to our model, Miami's De'Von Achane is most likely to score the first touchdown in Dolphins vs. Patriots.
Our projections give Achane a 13.6% chance of scoring the first TD at Gillette Stadium, while the Dolphins RB is a 45.5% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.
First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
Miami Dolphins
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 13.6% |
| Tyreek Hill | 9.4% |
| Raheem Mostert | 6.7% |
New England Patriots
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 9.7% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8.6% |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 5.4% |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions
Miami Dolphins
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 45.5% |
| Tyreek Hill | 33.9% |
| Raheem Mostert | 24.4% |
New England Patriots
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 35.4% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 30.9% |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 21.4% |
For a complete analysis of the most likely first and anytime TD scorers this week, see our NFL Week 5 touchdown scorer predictions
Dolphins vs Patriots Player Props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Dolphins and Patriots. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.
Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our Dolphins-Patriots page now to access every player prop projection.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Dolphins' Tyler Huntley is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Patriots' Jacoby Brissett.
Dolphins Rushing
De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert and Tyler Huntley are projected to be the leading rushers for the Dolphins.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | RB |
| Raheem Mostert | RB |
| Tyler Huntley | QB |
Patriots Rushing
Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson and Jacoby Brissett are expected to lead the Patriots in rushing yards.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB |
| Antonio Gibson | RB |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB |
Dolphins Receiving
Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane, Jonnu Smith and Durham Smythe are projected to top the receiving yards for the Dolphins.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | WR |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR |
| De'Von Achane | RB |
| Jonnu Smith | TE |
| Durham Smythe | TE |
Patriots Receiving
Ja'Lynn Polk, DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry, K.J. Osborn and Rhamondre Stevenson are projected to lead the Patriots in receiving yards.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Ja'Lynn Polk | WR |
| DeMario Douglas | WR |
| Hunter Henry | TE |
| K.J. Osborn | WR |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB |
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Conclusion
We predict the Dolphins, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Dolphins vs. Patriots insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More on NFL
Keep up with the latest NFL betting news and our data-led NFL best bets and NFL parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Super Bowl odds provide the most up-to-date probabilities for the Super Bowl, AFC, NFC and each division.
Dave Garofolo, a seasoned fantasy sports and betting enthusiast with a special affection for the NFL and MLB, crafts insightful game previews and betting props for the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM and PGA TOUR tournaments.
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