Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Odds, NFL Picks - Wild Card Round [2024]

The Kansas City Chiefs will square off with the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, starting at 8:10PM ET.

Dimers.com's full betting preview for Saturday's Dolphins vs. Chiefs matchup includes the latest betting odds, as well as our predictions and picks for the game.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Prediction: Model Picks Dolphins To Cover +4.5 Spread

We have used innovative machine learning and statistics to simulate the outcome of Saturday's NFL matchup between the Dolphins and Chiefs 10,000 times, in keeping with our coverage of NFL picks.

Our leading predictive analytics model currently gives the Chiefs a 63% chance of defeating the Dolphins, and our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 23-20.

According to our model, the Dolphins (+4.5) have a 60% chance of covering the spread, while the Over/Under total of 43.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Today's Miami vs. Kansas City betting preview is proudly sponsored by BetMGM Sportsbook, which has a tasty Bet $5, Get $158 in Bonus Bets offer for new users.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Odds

We have sourced the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Dolphins	Chiefs
Spread	+4.5 (-105)	-4.5 (-115)
Moneyline	+200	-230
Total	o43.5 (-105)	u43.5 (-110)

• The Chiefs are -4.5 favorites versus the Dolphins, with -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook the best odds currently available.
• For the underdog Dolphins (+4.5) to cover the spread, DraftKings also has the best odds currently on offer at -105.
• DraftKings currently has the best moneyline odds for the Chiefs at -230, which means you can risk $230 to win $100 for a total payout of $330 if they get the W.
• Elsewhere, BetMGM Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Dolphins at +200, where you can bet $100 to profit $200, earning a total payout of $300 if they win.
• The Over/Under for total points scored sits at 43.5 with FanDuel Sportsbook, which currently has the best odds for the Over at -105, while BetMGM currently has the best odds for the Under at -110.

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

As always, make sure you check all the sports betting sites available in your state for the best NFL odds and lines.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Picks

By comparing our predictions to the odds listed above, we have determined the best betting picks to place on this game:

Bet Type	Our Pick	Best Odds
Spread	Dolphins +4.5	-105 🔥
Moneyline	Dolphins	+200 🔥
Total	Over 43.5	-105

If you see a 🔥, you know it's one of our best free picks of the day across all major pro and college sports.

While the Chiefs are more likely to win the game, betting on the Dolphins moneyline is the best option due to the 4.1% edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the sportsbooks' odds currently available.

Taking advantage of the edges published here at Dimers is crucial to being a profitable bettor in the long run.

Dimers' NFL best bets are based on complex modeling and betting expertise to bring you the best possible plays every time.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs TD Scorers

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Dolphins vs. Chiefs?

According to our model, Kansas City's Isiah Pacheco is most likely to score the first TD in Dolphins vs. Chiefs.

Our projections give Pacheco a 15.2% chance of scoring the first TD at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, while the Chiefs RB is a 55.5% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Miami Dolphins

Player	First TD Probability
Tyreek Hill	11.6%
Raheem Mostert	10.1%
De'Von Achane	8.0%
Jaylen Waddle	5.3%
Braxton Berrios	1.9%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Isiah Pacheco	15.2%
Rashee Rice	9.2%
Travis Kelce	8.5%
Patrick Mahomes	5.7%
Justin Watson	3.7%

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Miami Dolphins

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Tyreek Hill	46.3%
Raheem Mostert	41.8%
De'Von Achane	34.4%
Jaylen Waddle	24.1%
Durham Smythe	9.1%

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Isiah Pacheco	55.5%
Rashee Rice	38.1%
Travis Kelce	35.3%
Patrick Mahomes	24.8%
Mecole Hardman	16.8%

Dolphins vs Chiefs Player Props

Here, you will find detailed projections for all of the key offensive players from the Dolphins and Chiefs, including passing, rushing and receiving yards.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa is projected for 251 passing yards, while the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for a whopping 278 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)	251 yds
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	278 yds

Dolphins Rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Raheem Mostert	58 yds
De'Von Achane	49 yds
Jeff Wilson	12 yds

Chiefs Rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Isiah Pacheco	82 yds
Patrick Mahomes	22 yds
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	16 yds

Dolphins Receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Tyreek Hill	86 yds
Jaylen Waddle	67 yds
Cedrick Wilson	35 yds
Durham Smythe	27 yds
De'Von Achane	18 yds

Chiefs Receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Rashee Rice	72 yds
Travis Kelce	58 yds
Justin Watson	30 yds
Noah Gray	19 yds
Isiah Pacheco	18 yds

Don't forget, our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting analysis before the Dolphins vs. Chiefs on Saturday January 13, 2024.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Game Information

The NFL Week 19 action between the Chiefs and Dolphins at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:10PM ET.

• Who: Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Saturday January 13, 2024
• Time: 8:10PM ET / 5:10PM PT
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Our full coverage of Dolphins vs. Chiefs includes pregame predictions, betting picks, and live win probabilities.

How to Bet on Dolphins vs. Chiefs

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Conclusion

This preview article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on this week's Dolphins vs. Chiefs contest, and automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting. Human editing and quality control are performed to ensure the content meets our editorial standards.

Dimers' predictions are based on 10,000 simulations per game, using reliable and up-to-date data sources and analytical methods. While our Dolphins vs. Chiefs predictions can help you make informed decisions, it's important that you gamble responsibly and manage your bankroll effectively.

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