Mexico Open Matchups Parlay: Our Best Head to Head Picks and Predictions

The Mexico Open at Vidanta tees off this Thursday, February 22 in Puerto Vallarta for the third consecutive year. Many of the world's best are taking a week off after contending at the Genesis Invitational and we're cooking up some action.

Betting on winners and who will finish in the Top 5, 10 and 20 markets gets all the attention around golf tournaments, but betting on head-to-head matchups can be an equally lucrative and entertaining experience for golf bettors. For our model's best picks in those markets, read our Mexico Open Best Bets.

We have an in-house tool designed for pitting golfers against one another and simulating the results. We can see who will finish higher in their head-to-head matchup, either after Round 1 or over the course of the entire tournament. With a handy "Fair Odds" to "Percentages" toggle, you can always check to see if there's value in any given matchup.

By combining this parlay with the top-tier promos we highlight in our Best Sportsbooks section, bettors can walk away with major profit and hundreds in bonuses from the Mexico Open, like up to the $1,000 in bet matches that Fanatics Sportsbook is dishing out right now.

Our Head-to-Head Matchup Winners at the Mexico Open

To make this parlay, we'll be using the Head-to-Head matchups available at DraftKings as they have the most options available. We'll enter both golfers into our H2H Predictor, select the Tournament-long option, and see which golfer gets the advantage for the weekend.

MORE: Dimers' In-House Golf Rankings

+1915 Mexico Open Parlay Picks and Analysis

Leg 1: Tony Finau to beat Nicolai Hojgaard

We'll start with our highest projected golfer to win his tournament matchup, Tony Finau. Our model projects Finau with a 59.1% probability to win this matchup head-to-head, and Hojgaard gets just a 33.9% probability to contend for the Top 20, while Finau gets a 51.7% chance.

Leg 2: Thomas Detry to beat Taylor Pendrith

For our next matchup, we'll take Belgian golfer Thomas Detry to best Canadian Taylor Pendrith over the course of the weekend. Detry surpasses a 50% probability to edge out Pendrith, who has equal odds to Detry despite just a 44.9% chance from our model. Pendrith has a pair of Top 10 finishes but Detry has shown his upside with a T4 at Pebble Beach, too.

The Power is Yours:  Build Your Head-to-Head Parlays

Leg 3: Ryan Fox to beat Brandon Wu

Our third leg sees Ryan Fox pitted up against Brandon Wu. Wu flashed his upside in Sony open with a T18, but has been cut twice and finished T47 since. Fox has one MC and a T41 in his two events so far this year.

It's a big discrepancy according to our model in their head-to-head matchup, with Fox getting a significant probability of nearly 54% to come out on top while Wu is at just 41.5%. 

Leg 4: Mark Hubbard to beat Aaron Rai

Mark Hubbard is one of our model's favorite plays this week, both as the outright winner at +5000 and in the placement markets. He's not a massive favorite in his matchup with Aaron Rai, but he gets a 50.3% probability to edge out the English golfer. Rai has largely struggled this year with two missed cuts and his best finish at T33 through four events.

Leg 5: Michael Kim to beat Aaron Eckroat

We close out with another of our model's best bets in the placement market, Michael Kim. With a 51.8% probability, Kim is our model's favorite in this matchup with fellow American Austin Eckroat, who's flashed some talent in the early goings this year (peaking at a T25 at The American Express), but still has some work to do and is incorrectly priced at -110 against Kim.

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

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