March Madness Cinderella Teams: Three To Watch

With March Madness here and the bracket set, we took a deep dive into our predictive analytics model's three most likely cinderella teams to make a Final Four run in the NCAA Tournament. One of the most difficult prizes in all of sports to win is the college basketball National Championship and in a wide open year, it would not be surprising to see a smaller program rise up from out of nowhere to win it all.

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Top 3 March Madness Cinderella Teams

The 2022-2023 college basketball season has been one of the most balanced seasons in recent memory. There are zero elite teams, but plenty of good ones, including at the mid-major level. One of the most enjoyable parts of the NCAA Tournament every season is trying to identify Cinderella. This year more than ever before, smaller program teams will have a great chance to make a deep run all the way to the Final Four and maybe even beyond.

Our DimersBOT model has locked in on three mid-major teams that have the best chance to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

NCAAB TEAM	PROBABILITY	ODDS
Florida Atlantic Owls	0.1%	+20000
Boise State Broncos	0.08%	+42000
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles	0.05%	+42000

RELATED: NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis - Three March Madness Futures Bets to Make

1. Florida Atlantic Owls

Florida Atlantic is one of our model's top ranking mid-majors. We give the Owls an 0.1% probability to win the national championship, but first they must get past American tournament champions, Memphis, in their opening game.

The under-seeded Owls have arguably been the best mid-major team in the entire sport from start to finish this season. Boasting both a top-50 offense and defense, Florida Atlantic is balanced enough on both ends to beat teams in a variety of ways. They made a name for themselves with a dominant win on the road against Florida in the non-conference, and haven't slowed down once yet this season. It would not be surprising at all to see Florida Atlantic make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, and they have the personnel to cause problems for Purdue in the second round if they can advance past Memphis. With 31 wins already on the season, it should be no surprise if they do.

2. Boise State Broncos

Boise State is another one of our model's top ranking mid-majors. The Broncos, who have a first round date with Northwestern, are a 0.08% chance to win the national championship, 

The Broncos finished the season ranked 31st in the country according to Kenpom, so don't let the name on the jerseys confuse you. This is a team that is capable of beating high major opponents and holding their own in big games. Boise State is 3-0 against Power 5 opponents this year, with wins over Washington State, Colorado and a great Texas A&M team. With a top 15-ranked defense in the country, Boise State suffocates opposing offenses on a nightly basis. Nobody will want to see the Broncos in their region at the end of March, and they have the talent and play style to cause problems for Northwestern. If they get past the Wildcats, an injury-ridden UCLA team awaits.

3. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

Oral Roberts has drawn Duke in the first round and is the final one of our model's top ranking mid-majors. We give the Golden Eagles an 0.05% probability to win the national championship.

People remember Oral Roberts for their magical run in the NCAA Tournament a few seasons ago, but not many people realize that this year's version is even better. The Golden Eagles boast the nation's longest winning streak, and are ranked roughly 60 spots higher than they were in 2021 when they defeated Ohio State and made a run to the Sweet 16. Superstar point guard Max Abmas is as prolific as ever, but it's his running-mate Connor Vanover that opens the door for something special in the NCAA Tournament. Vanover is a 7'5" center that shoots 35% from three and isn't afraid to let them fly. While Duke is a very tough draw for Oral Roberts, there's no reason to think the Golden Eagles can't get the job done. Tennessee awaits in the 2nd Round if they can advance, and the Vols just lost point guard Zakai Zeigler for the remainder of the season.

March Madness National Championship Probabilities

This college basketball season is a wide open one. There are 15-20 teams that genuinely could make an appearance in the National Championship game and cut down the nets in early April. Many have assumed that with such parity in the sport, that would mean more upsets than ever before, but we aren't so sure. 

Another takeaway is that the West Region is absolutely loaded. With Kansas, UCLA, UConn and Gonzaga all in one section of the bracket, it truly will be a bloodbath to see who emerges from that region and into the Final Four. The other regions feel particularly less challenging for top teams like Houston and Alabama.

We've run the entire bracket through our predictive analytics model over 10,000 times to determine who the most likely winners are. You can check out the National Championship probabilities for every team in our March Madness Futures section.