Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Odds - October 21, 2023

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs will meet in the NHL at Amalie Arena on Saturday, with puck drop at 7:00PM ET.

Dimers' prediction for Saturday's Maple Leafs vs. Lightning matchup, as well as the latest odds and our full game preview, are detailed in this article.

Who Will Win: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

Based on cutting-edge computer power and data, Dimers.com has simulated the outcome of Saturday's Maple Leafs-Lightning NHL matchup 10,000 times.

Dimers' proven predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, currently gives the Maple Leafs a 52% chance of defeating the Lightning.

More: Betting Predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Odds

We have researched the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Lightning +1.5 (-185), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+160)
• Moneyline: Lightning +122, Maple Leafs -142
• Total: Over/Under 7 (+105/-120)

Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

The Lightning are currently +1.5 underdogs versus the Maple Leafs, with -185 at DraftKings Sportsbook the best odds currently available.

For the favored Maple Leafs (-1.5) to cover the puck line, PointsBet has the best odds currently on offer at +160.

FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Lightning at +122. That means you can throw down $100 to profit $122, earning a total payout of $222, if they win.

Elsewhere, DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Maple Leafs at -142, where you can risk $142 to win $100, for a total payout of $242, if they come out on top.

The Over/Under is set at 7 with DraftKings Sportsbook, which currently has the best odds for the Over at +105, while BetMGM currently has the best odds for the Under at -120.

As always, make sure you check the sportsbooks you can bet with in your state for the best NHL odds and lines.

According to DimersBOT, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the Over/Under total of 7 goals has a 56% chance of going Under.

More: Free Prop Picks

Best Bets: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

• Puck Line: Lightning +1.5 @ -185 via DraftKings Sportsbook (68% probability)
• Moneyline: Lightning @ +122 via FanDuel Sportsbook (2.2% edge)
• Total: Under 7 @ -120 via BetMGM (56% probability)

Dimers' best bets are based on world-class modeling and betting intelligence to help you make smarter decisions with the legal sportsbooks in the United States.

While the Maple Leafs are more likely to win the game, according to DimersBOT, betting on the Lightning moneyline is the best option because of the 2.2% edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the betting odds currently on offer.

Taking advantage of the edges published here at Dimers is one of the keys to achieving long-term profitability as a bettor.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction

Click or tap on See Matchup to find out more.

Dimers has full betting coverage of Saturday's Maple Leafs vs. Lightning game, including pregame predictions, the best picks, and live scores.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Player Props

Who will score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning? The latest data is in.

Listed below are the most likely first goal and most likely anytime goal scorers for both the Maple Leafs and Lightning.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you discover the best prop bets for Saturday's game.

According to DimersBOT, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.

DimersBOT gives Matthews an 11.1% chance of scoring the first goal at Amalie Arena, while the Maple Leafs star is a 54.7% chance of netting an anytime goal.

Scroll down for the complete list of first and anytime goal scorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Probabilities

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 11.1% probability
• William Nylander: 6.5% probability
• Mitchell Marner: 5.9% probability
• John Tavares: 5.5% probability
• Tyler Bertuzzi: 4.5% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Brayden Point: 8.6% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 6.7% probability
• Steven Stamkos: 6.2% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 5.8% probability
• Nick Paul: 3.2% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Probabilities

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 54.7% probability
• William Nylander: 38.8% probability
• Mitchell Marner: 34.4% probability
• John Tavares: 29.7% probability
• Tyler Bertuzzi: 27.7% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Brayden Point: 41.6% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 37.3% probability
• Steven Stamkos: 36.0% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 32.0% probability
• Nick Paul: 20.7% probability

Don't forget, DimersBOT updates frequently, so refresh this page for any changes to our betting analysis before Maple Leafs vs. Lightning on Saturday October 21, 2023.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Preview

Saturday's game between the Lightning and Maple Leafs at Amalie Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Saturday October 21, 2023
• Time: 7:00PM ET / 4:00PM PT
• Venue: Amalie Arena

How to Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

Ready to join an online sportsbook and start betting on the NHL? We've got access to the best available sign-up offers for each legal betting state.

Conclusion

This comprehensive game preview includes our Maple Leafs vs. Lightning prediction and NHL odds.

Dimers' picks and predictions are made thanks to 10,000 simulations per game, using reliable and up-to-date data sources and analytical methods.

While our Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions can help you make informed decisions, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and manage your bankroll effectively.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

What NHL Games Are on Today?

Now you've got the 411 on Maple Leafs vs. Lightning, get the latest analysis for all upcoming NHL games via our NHL picks and predictions. There you can find probabilities and odds, plus our best bets for every single NHL matchup. Want a pick for the Puck Line? You got it. How about the Over/Under? Yup, got that too. The Moneyline? Yes sir. And these picks are good, I mean REALLY good!

In addition to our leading NHL predictions, Dimers also offers the best NHL prop bets today, projecting first and anytime goal scorers, and more against the best odds available every day of the NHL season.