Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Odds - Apr 22, 2023

NHL action continues on Saturday at 7:00PM ET as the Toronto Maple Leafs square off with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is the National Hockey League's annual elimination tournament to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.

Sixteen teams, including the Maple Leafs and Lightning, reached the NHL Playoffs 2023, which consists of 4 rounds – the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to 4 wins moving on to the next round.

Dimers' free betting picks for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning, plus game predictions, betting odds and projected player stats, are detailed below.

Who will win Maple Leafs vs. Lightning?

Based on state-of-the-art computer power and data, Dimers.com has simulated Saturday's Maple Leafs-Lightning NHL Playoffs game 10,000 times.

Dimers' proven predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, currently gives the Maple Leafs a 51% chance of winning against the Lightning.

More: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Simulated 10,000 Times

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Game Odds

• Puck Line: Lightning +1.5 (-255), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+220)
• Moneyline: Lightning +100, Maple Leafs -115
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-104/-115)

Puck Line, Moneyline and Over/Under

The Lightning are currently +1.5 underdogs against the Maple Leafs, with -255 at FanDuel Sportsbook the best odds currently available.

For the favored Maple Leafs (-1.5) to cover the puck line, BetMGM has the best odds currently on offer at +220.

BetMGM currently has the best moneyline odds for the Lightning at +100. That means you can risk $100 to win $100, for a total payout of $200, if they get the W.

On the other hand, DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Maple Leafs at -115, where you can risk $115 to win $100, for a total payout of $215, if they come out on top.

The Over/Under is set at 6.5 with FanDuel Sportsbook, which currently has the best odds for the Over at -104, while PointsBet currently has the best odds for the Under at -115.

As always, make sure you check the sportsbooks you can bet with in your state for the best NHL odds and lines.

According to DimersBOT, the Lightning (+1.5) are a 70% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal Over/Under is a 53% chance of going Under.

More: Best Free Bet Tracking Tool

Best Bets for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

• Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 @ +220 via BetMGM
• Moneyline: Lightning @ +100 via BetMGM
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -115 via PointsBet (53% probability)

Our best bets are based on world-class simulations and betting intelligence to serve you the best possible plays 24/7/365.

Even though the Lightning are more likely to cover the puck line, our best bet of Maple Leafs -1.5 is based on the expectation of that happening, according to DimersBOT, and the best odds available.

And while the Maple Leafs are more likely to win the game, according to DimersBOT, taking the Lightning moneyline is the best option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the sportsbooks' odds currently on offer.

Taking advantage of the edges published here at Dimers is crucial to being profitable in the long run.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction

Click or tap on See Matchup to reveal more.

Dimers has full betting coverage of Saturday's Maple Leafs-Lightning matchup, including pregame predictions, top betting picks, and live win probabilities.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Player Props

Who will score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning? The data is in.

Listed below are the most likely first goal and most likely anytime goal scorers for both the Maple Leafs and Lightning.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you select the best prop picks for Saturday's game.

According to DimersBOT, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.

DimersBOT gives Matthews an 11.4% chance of scoring the first goal at Amalie Arena, while the Maple Leafs star is a 49.3% chance of netting an anytime goal.

Scroll down for the complete list of first and anytime goal scorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Probabilities

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 11.4% probability
• Mitchell Marner: 6.0% probability
• John Tavares: 5.4% probability
• William Nylander: 5.3% probability
• Ryan O'Reilly: 3.8% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Brayden Point: 7.9% probability
• Steven Stamkos: 6.7% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 6.4% probability
• Alex Killorn: 5.1% probability
• Ross Colton: 3.6% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Probabilities

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 49.3% probability
• Mitchell Marner: 34.1% probability
• John Tavares: 32.0% probability
• William Nylander: 29.0% probability
• Ryan O'Reilly: 21.3% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Brayden Point: 39.3% probability
• Steven Stamkos: 36.5% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 34.4% probability
• Alex Killorn: 26.4% probability
• Ross Colton: 20.5% probability

Don't forget, DimersBOT updates often, so keep checking this article for any changes to our betting analysis ahead of Maple Leafs vs. Lightning on Saturday April 22, 2023.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning 2023 Game Info

Saturday's game between the Lightning and Maple Leafs in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to start at 7:00PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Saturday April 22, 2023
• Time: 7:00PM ET / 4:00PM PT
• Venue: Amalie Arena

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Want more NHL previews like this?

So, you liked our Maple Leafs vs. Lightning betting predictions? Awesome. Did you know our NHL Betting News section has a comprehensive betting preview for every NHL game as soon as the sportsbooks put out their odds?

That's right, our predictive analytics model then compares those odds (aka Vegas odds) against its own probabilities to find value in the markets, which allows us to write the most authoritative NHL betting previews and get the jump on the public and the sportsbooks.

As well as NHL game picks and predicitons, Dimers also provides the best NHL prop bets for today, with our projections for first and anytime goal scorers and more lined up against the sportsbook odds every single day of the NHL season.