LeBron James Approaches 40,000 Career Points in the NBA - When Will He Hit it?

The Race to 40,000 Career Points – When Will LeBron James Reach Milestone?

LeBron James’ storied NBA career is coming up on its latest historical milestone as he sits just 132 points away from becoming the first player in NBA history to score 40,000 career points. It was this time last year when he surpassed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most points in the history of the game.

It’s fitting that we’re at the NBA All-Star Break as we approach this historical moment, as it gives us time to reflect on the significance of 40,000 career points, the undeniable impact LeBron has left on the game and of course, figure out how to bet on him to reach this achievement.

Depending on which sportsbooks you have, there is a market for us to bet on which game LeBron will reach this historic milestone. We can bet on the specific game, or a before/after of a certain date. We’ve asked our supremely talented data scientists to run some custom variants of our NBA models specifically around LeBron and the Lakers’ next 10 games to identify the most likely game in which he hits 40,000 career points.

For reference, we’re using the odds available to us on BetMGM Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. You’ll find this market in their NBA Futures tab, and all the way at the bottom in its own section titled LeBron James’ 40,000^th Career Point.

If any of the bets in this article appeal to you, it makes an opportune time to sign up at BetMGM, as you’ll net yourself $150 in bonus bets by betting just $5 on any of these games as a new user. You’ll receive three $50 bonus bets that expire within 7 days, which you are free to use on anything! Claim their offer via this link or the card below, and read on for our race to 40K analysis.

Which Game Will LeBron Reach 40,000 Career Points?

These are the odds for LeBron to reach 40,000 career points in each of the Lakers’ next 10 games. They range from the realistic to the absurd, like betting on him to do is the Lakers’ first game back from the break against the Golden State Warriors. Just need a casual 132-point game from LeBron to cash those +100000 odds, that’s all.

You will often hear that there is no such thing as a sure thing in betting. And while that is true 99.999999% of the time, we have here a scenario in which the truly impossible can be wagered on. LeBron would need 132 points, the highest scoring game in the history of the NBA by a massive margin, to hit 40,000 on February 22^nd against the Warriors. Even at 1000:1 odds, your money is a donation.

LeBron averaging 66 points per game and getting it against the Spurs is theoretically attainable, but our model gives it a 0% chance as well. Some insane longshots are worth betting on, like a no-name to win a golf tournament, but these games are not.

A Tale of Two Scenarios – To Sit or Not to Sit? 

The simulations run on the Lakers’ next 10 games are not an exact science. Without knowing each team’s starting five for each game, the status of injured players or if LeBron himself will even play in every game, we can only simulate with the data we have available, like his minutes and shot usage. Presently, LeBron is averaging 34.9 minutes and 24.8 points per game.

Regarding back-to-backs, LeBron has sat out the second game several times this season, including the Lakers’ two most recent, Jan 30 + Feb 1, and Feb 13 + 14. For that reason, we’ve run two different simulations – one in which we give LeBron a 10% chance of missing each game, and another in which we have him sit the second night of the Lakers Feb 22 + 23 back-to-back, the first two games back from the All-Star Break.

Scenario #1 – 10% Probability of Missing Each Game

As mentioned, we’ve devised two different scenarios, with this one featuring a 10% probability of LeBron missing any of these games. In this simulation, we see the Lakers’ March 2^nd date with the Denver Nuggets as the most-likely game in which LeBron hits 40K with a 36.6% probability, unsurprisingly the books’ favorite at +200. The Wizards game the night before gets a 25.4% probability, while their March 4^th game against the Thunder comes in third with a 22.2% probability.

LeBron would have to average 22.0 points per game, slightly under his season-long average, to reach the 40K milestone by the final buzzer of the Nuggets game.

As far as value is concerned, +200 against the Nuggets presents a small edge, as those odd imply a 33.3% probability, identifying 3.3% +EV. The Wizards game is a value play at +375 which implies just 21% against our model’s 25%. The Thunder game is actually bad value, as it’s the lowest of the three but the odds imply a 30.8% likelihood.

Scenario #2 – Sits Feb. 23 & 5% Probability of Missing Any Other Game

In the second scenario, we suddenly see the Thunder game become the massive favorite at 40.7%, which would make the fair odds +145. That turns them into a value play at +225 if you think he’s likely to sit out the back-to-back game against the Spurs on Feb. 23^rd. Interestingly, the probability for the Nuggets game is largely unaffected, lowering by 3% and becomes fair value at the +200 odds-on favorite. The March 6^th matchup with the Kings enters into the realm of possibilities at 17.4%, but at +475, it’s right in line with our model and not exactly a value.

Now, LeBron probably won't sit out the back-to-back against the Spurs as it's just two days after returning from the All-Star Break, but if he plays that game and sits the back-to-back game against the Wizards, then we see approximately the same result, save for the matchup-specific factors.

We don’t know how much longer LeBron will play; it’s no secret that he has hopes of playing professional basketball with his son, Bronny, and that’s likely two seasons away at best. Regardless of when LeBron hangs it up, he’ll have a huge buffer as the points leader, with the next closest active player Kevin Durant at 28,245. Safe to say LeBron will have sole claim to 40K for a long, long time.

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