NBA Player Props: Our Best Bet on Klay Thompson in Mavericks vs. Warriors

Looking for the top player prop bet to tip-off the NBA Cup In-Season Tournament action, then look no further than Klay Thompson when he returns to the Bay in tonight's Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Cup group stage game. With a confident projection, a strong probability of hitting the over at 60%, and an edge of 7.6%, this bet offers value that’s hard to ignore.

Klay Thompson Player Props: Mavericks vs. Warriors 11/12/24

After spending his first 11 seasons in the NBA with the Golden State Warriors, Klay Thompson joined the Dallas Mavericks via trade in the offseason.

It hasn't been the most ideal start for Klay's new chapter - his 41.8 FG%, 35.4 3P% and 13.8 PPG are the lowest marks he's ever had, with the exception of his 12.5 PPG in his rookie season. Growing pains are to be expected with a new team and there are a lot of mouths to feed in Dallas with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving leading the team in scoring by a wide margin.

Revenge Game Matchup

Klay Thompson had a sensational career in Golden State, highlighted by the "Splash Bros" duo of him and Steph Curry raining three-pointers and setting the bar for deep shooters in this league.

Now he returns to the Bay for the first time since joining the Mavs in the offseason and he has a tough test - the Warriors have the best 3PT shooting defense in the league, holding teams to 31.9% from three so far this season. If Klay wants to make a statement in his return, he'll need to bring his A-game that he featured in the first three games of the season, when he hit 6, 5 and 4 three-pointers, scoring 22, 19 and 18. He hasn't had a game that good since.

Projected Edge and Odds

With a projection of 18 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists, our model doesn't predict an out-of-the-ordinary performance for Thompson, even with the added narrative of facing his longtime former team.

There is a value bet, however, with our model identifying a 51.2% probability of Thompson hitting over over 3.5 three-pointers, presenting a 6.8% edge against the best +125 odds available at BetMGM. As our probability suggests these odds shouldn't be any better than -105, you can see the value at +125.

His points line is set at O/U 15.5, which is below our projection, however at -120 to the over, we don't see very much value. 

Another bet to consider is on Thompson PTS+REB+AST market. With a combined total of 24, taking his 20+ PRA combo prop at +135 at DraftKings Sportsbook is an enticing play.

RELATED: Mavericks-Warriors: Box scores, predictions and analysis

Betting Confidence

Bettors can feel confident with this NBA prediction and back Thompson in the three-point prop and PTS+REB+AST prop markets, especially given the favorable odds available.

This prop not only has a reliable statistical basis but aligns with the narrative for Thompson's return to his former arena. 

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