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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds, NFL Picks - Divisional Round [2024]
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The Buffalo Bills will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 6:30PM ET.
Dimers.com's in-depth betting preview for Sunday's Chiefs vs. Bills matchup includes the latest betting odds, as well as our predictions and picks for the game.
Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction: Model Projects Win For The Bills
We have used innovative machine learning and statistics to simulate the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Chiefs and Bills 10,000 times, in keeping with our coverage of NFL predictions.
Our famous predictive analytics model currently gives the Bills a 59% chance of defeating the Chiefs, and our predicted final score has the Bills winning 23-21.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and both the Chiefs and Bills have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 45.5-point Over/Under also has a 55% chance of going under.
Today's Kansas City vs. Buffalo betting preview is proudly sponsored by BetMGM Sportsbook, which has an awesome Bet $5, Get $158 in Bonus Bets promo for new customers.
Chiefs vs. Bills Odds
We have researched the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Chiefs | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-105) | -2.5 (-112) |
| Moneyline | +128 | -148 |
| Total | o45.5 (-110) | u45.5 (-105) |
- The Bills are -2.5 favorites versus the Chiefs, with -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook the best odds currently available.
- For the underdog Chiefs (+2.5) to cover the spread, BetMGM Sportsbook has the best odds currently on offer at -105.
- DraftKings currently has the best moneyline odds for the Bills at -148. That means you can risk $148 to win $100 for a total payout of $248 if they get the W.
- FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Chiefs at +128, where you can bet $100 to profit $128, earning a total payout of $228 if they win.
- The Over/Under sits at 45.5 with DraftKings, which currently has the best odds for the Over at -110, while FanDuel currently has the best odds for the Under at -105.
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
As always, check out the sportsbooks you can bet with in your state for the best NFL odds and lines.
Chiefs vs. Bills Picks
By comparing our predictions to the odds listed above, we have identified the best betting picks to place on this game:
| Bet Type | Our Pick | Best Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs +2.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Bills | -148 |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -105 |
Dimers' NFL best bets are based on world-class modeling and wagering expertise to serve you the best possible plays every week of the season.
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Chiefs vs. Bills TD Scorers
Who will score the first touchdown in Chiefs vs. Bills?
According to our model, Buffalo's Josh Allen is most likely to score the first touchdown in Chiefs vs. Bills.
Our projections give Allen a 19.7% chance of scoring the first TD at Highmark Stadium, while the Bills QB is a 68.0% chance of reaching the end zone at any point in the game.
First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 13.5% |
| Travis Kelce | 8.5% |
| Rashee Rice | 8.5% |
| Mecole Hardman | 4.9% |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 4.3% |
Buffalo Bills
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19.7% |
| James Cook | 12.3% |
| Stefon Diggs | 8.0% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4.4% |
| Dawson Knox | 2.3% |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 53.5% |
| Travis Kelce | 38.4% |
| Rashee Rice | 38.1% |
| Mecole Hardman | 22.8% |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 20.6% |
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 68.0% |
| James Cook | 49.7% |
| Stefon Diggs | 35.7% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 21.0% |
| Dawson Knox | 11.3% |
Chiefs vs Bills Player Props
Here, you will find detailed projections for all of the key offensive players from the Chiefs and Bills, including passing, rushing and receiving yards.
Chiefs vs. Bills Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is projected to have a big game with 312 passing yards, while the Bills' Josh Allen is expected to throw for 226 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 312 yds |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 226 yds |
Chiefs Rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 79 yds |
| Patrick Mahomes | 16 yds |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 15 yds |
Bills Rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| James Cook | 82 yds |
| Josh Allen | 49 yds |
| Ty Johnson | 21 yds |
Chiefs Receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 74 yds |
| Travis Kelce | 67 yds |
| Isiah Pacheco | 22 yds |
| Mecole Hardman | 19 yds |
| Noah Gray | 19 yds |
Bills Receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 78 yds |
| Dalton Kincaid | 49 yds |
| Khalil Shakir | 48 yds |
| James Cook | 24 yds |
| Trent Sherfield | 15 yds |
Remember, our model updates frequently, so keep checking this page for any changes to our betting analysis before the Chiefs vs. Bills on Sunday January 21, 2024.
Chiefs vs. Bills Game Information
The NFL Week 20 matchup between the Bills and Chiefs at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to commence at 6:30PM ET.
- Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
- Date: Sunday January 21, 2024
- Time: 6:30PM ET / 3:30PM PT
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
Our full coverage of Chiefs vs. Bills includes pregame predictions, betting picks, and live win probabilities.
How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Bills
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Conclusion
This preview article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on this week's Chiefs vs. Bills matchup, and automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting. Human editing and quality control are performed to ensure the content meets our editorial guidelines.
Our predictions are based on 10,000 simulations per game, using reliable and up-to-date data sources and analytical methods. While these Chiefs vs. Bills picks can help you make informed decisions, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that leads to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may get a referral fee at no additional cost to you.
More on NFL
Stay updated with the latest NFL betting news and our data-led NFL picks and parlays all season long. Plus, our Super Bowl odds give you the most up-to-date predictions and the best available odds on the Super Bowl, AFC, NFC, and each division.
Ryan Leaver is a seasoned sports betting and online gaming expert specializing in NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball and soccer, offering detailed game previews, best bets, props and futures articles.
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