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Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction: Buffalo Predicted to Win in NFL Week 11 [2024]
The Buffalo Bills will square off with the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Week 11 action at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, starting at 4:25PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NFL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) projects the Bills as the most likely winner of today's game.
"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Chiefs-Bills game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.
"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Bills with a win probability of 59%, while the Chiefs have 41%."
This updated Chiefs vs. Bills betting preview builds on our early Chiefs vs. Bills prediction that was published at the start of the week.
For expanded analysis of today’s game, including the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Chiefs vs. Bills predictions page.
Chiefs vs. Bills Game-Day Updates and Essential Details
The NFL Week 11 matchup between the Bills and Chiefs at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:25PM ET.
- Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
- Date: Sunday, November 17, 2024
- Time: 4:25PM ET/1:25PM PT
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
- Tickets: Get tickets for the game on Ticketmaster
- Merchandise: Buy Bills and Chiefs gear at Fanatics
Dimers.com's comprehensive preview of Sunday's Chiefs vs. Bills matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Kansas City vs. Buffalo picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
READER EXCLUSIVE: Use code 20FOOTBALL at checkout now to get 20% off your first month of Dimers Pro! Hurry, this offer won't last long.
Chiefs vs. Bills Predictions
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Chiefs and Bills 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Bills a 59% chance of defeating the Chiefs in Week 11 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 24-21.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Chiefs and Bills each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 46.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Along with our Chiefs vs. Bills predictions, we've also here's what else we've got for today’s action:
Chiefs vs. Bills Odds
We have sourced the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Chiefs | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (+100) | -2.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +130 | -148 |
| Total | o46.5 (-118) | u46.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Chiefs vs. Bills Picks
Our model's strongest edge in today's Chiefs vs. Bills matchup is on the total.
Our expert predictions, matched against the current odds, reveal the best NFL picks for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Chiefs vs. Bills TD Scorers
Who will score an anytime touchdown in Chiefs vs. Bills?
According to our model, Buffalo's Josh Allen is most likely to score the first touchdown in Chiefs vs. Bills.
Our projections give Allen an 11.9% chance of getting in for six first at Highmark Stadium, while the Bills QB is a 51.8% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.
First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 10.8% |
| Travis Kelce | 7.1% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6.4% |
Buffalo Bills
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11.9% |
| James Cook | 9.8% |
| Amari Cooper | 7.2% |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 48.8% |
| Travis Kelce | 35.4% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 31.4% |
Buffalo Bills
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 51.8% |
| James Cook | 45.7% |
| Amari Cooper | 36.0% |
For a complete analysis of the most likely first and anytime TD scorers this week, see our NFL Week 11 touchdown scorer predictions
Chiefs vs Bills Player Props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chiefs and Bills. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.
Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our Chiefs-Bills page now to access every player prop projection.
Chiefs vs. Bills Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Bills' Josh Allen.
Chiefs Rushing
Kareem Hunt, Patrick Mahomes and Carson Steele are projected to be the leading rushers for the Chiefs.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | RB |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB |
| Carson Steele | RB |
Bills Rushing
James Cook, Josh Allen and Ray Davis are expected to lead the Bills in rushing yards.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| James Cook | RB |
| Josh Allen | QB |
| Ray Davis | RB |
Chiefs Receiving
Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, Noah Gray and JuJu Smith-Schuster are projected to top the receiving yards for the Chiefs.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | TE |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR |
| Xavier Worthy | WR |
| Noah Gray | TE |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR |
Bills Receiving
Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins, Dawson Knox and Curtis Samuel are projected to lead the Bills in receiving yards.
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | WR |
| Amari Cooper | WR |
| Mack Hollins | WR |
| Dawson Knox | TE |
| Curtis Samuel | WR |
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Conclusion
We predict the Bills, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Chiefs on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Chiefs vs. Bills insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More on NFL
Keep up with the latest NFL betting news, NFL best bets and NFL parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Super Bowl odds offer the latest predictions for the Super Bowl, AFC, NFC and each division.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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