Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens: Key Betting Trends and Odds for the AFC Championship Game

The NFL Playoffs roll on as we gear up for the Championship Round. The No. 1 seeded Baltimore Ravens will host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday to determine who punches their ticket to Super Bowl LVIII. A closer look at each team's betting trends throughout the 2023-24 NFL season reveals some notable insights to consider when using Dimers' best bets for the AFC Championship, powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics model. For our NFC Championship Preview, click here.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens: Points Spread

Ravens are a -3.5 point favorite against the Chiefs

The Ravens soared through the regular season with an impressive 11-6-0 record against the spread (ATS), covering in six of their final eight games of the year, and carried that in the postseason with a 25-point victory over the Texans.

Their dominance was evident when favored by 3.5 points or more like they are against the Chiefs, triumphing in 6 out of 11 instances. That includes two absolutely dismantling wins against two of the other remaining Super Bowl LVIII contenders, beating the Lions by 32 and the 49ers by 14. 

On the other side, for all narrative about the Chiefs never covering, Kansas City went 10-7 ATS in the regular season, and covered both times in the playoffs, once as a favorite against Miami and then by winning outright as an underdog against Buffalo.

In this game, the DimersBOT model is favoring the Chiefs with the points, giving them a substantial 56% probability of covering the -3.5 spread. Against their odds of -125 on BetMGM, is right in line with our projection, while the Ravens at +100 get just a 44% probability, which means there isn't any value here.

MORE: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview

Head-to-Head Odds: Chiefs vs. Ravens

Ravens are the favorite at -175 odds on BetMGM

The Ravens were favored in nearly every game this season and finished with a 13-4 regular season record. The Chiefs finished with an 11-6 record, winning both games they were priced as underdogs, including their postseason win over Buffalo.

At their -175 odds on BetMGM, the Ravens have an implied win probability of 64%, while the DimersBOT model says they have a 62% probability. That means you'd like to see their odds at -160 for a fair price. The Chiefs are +145 to win outright which calculates to a 41% win probability, while our model says they should be +165, which reflects our 38% calculation.

RELATED: Our Best NFL Player Props for Chiefs vs. Ravens

Chiefs vs. Ravens Points Total: Over/Under

The Over/Under for the AFC Championship is set at 44.5 points at BetMGM

In terms of points total trends, Baltimore's defensive prowess regularly took control in games as they have an 8-9-1 record to the Over, including a push in the Divisional Round game against the Texans. Their defense held the Texans to just 3 points in that game. 

Meanwhile, the Chiefs haven't sported the high-flying offense they've been known for, rocking a 5-12 regular season record to the Over this year, tied with Carolina and Los Angeles for the lowest in the NFL. They're 1-1 in the playoffs.

That should make it no surprise that our model strongly favors the Under in this game, with a significant 56% probability. At -110 odds on BetMGM, that provides some noticeable value with a 3.2% edge, meaning the fair odds would be up to -130, which makes the Under 44.5 points our model's best bet for the AFC Championship.

Remember, these trends are simply a holistic look at both team's results throughout the season. Many other factors contribute to these outcomes, including injuries, matchups and more. However, these trends can offer helpful looks at the tendencies of either team.

As the championship showdown unfolds, these betting trends add an extra layer of anticipation to what promises to be a wire-to-wire clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens.

MORE: Dimers' Best U.S. Betting Sites

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