Kansas City Chiefs 2022 Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

The 2022 NFL season is firmly on the horizon and over the coming weeks the Dimers crew will break down the chances of each and every team, all vying for Super Bowl 57 glory in Glendale, Arizona come February.

Let's take a look at the key factors to consider when betting on the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2022 NFL season.

It’s been a long offseason in Kansas City after the Chiefs blew an 11-point halftime lead to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC title game at Arrowhead with a third straight Super Bowl appearance within their grasp. Will Patrick Mahomes and company hoist the Lombardi Trophy again this season? 

Kansas City Chiefs Win Total Prediction, Computer Picks and Super Bowl Odds

Kansas City Chiefs

• 2021 Record: 12-5, 1st place AFC West (Lost to Cincinnati Bengals in AFC Championship)
• 2021 ATS: 10-10
• Key off-season losses: Tyreek Hill WR, Tyrann Mathieu S, Byron Pringle WR, Melvin Ingram DE, Charvarius Ward CB
• Key off-season additions: Justin Reid S, Darrel Williams RB, Ronald Jones RB, Jerick McKinnon RB, Daniel Sorenson DB, Melvin Ingram LB, JuJu Smith-Schuster WR, Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR, Skyy Moore WR, Trent McDuffie CB, Isiah Pacheco RB, George Karlaftis DE, Bryan Cook S

Kansas City Chiefs 2022 Win Total - 10.5

After the shocking loss to Cincinnati in the AFC Championship came the shocking blockbuster trade of perennial Pro Bowl WR Tyreek Hill to Miami. Hill is one of the NFL’s biggest game-changers and it’s going to take some time for even a QB of Mahomes’ caliber to adjust. 

everyday is an opportunity to get better right ✌🏿 pic.twitter.com/4i9SrzngP0

— Ty Hill (@cheetah) June 12, 2022

Kansas City prioritized its 27th-ranked defense in the draft, tabbing CB Trent McDuffie (Washington) and DE George Karlaftis (Purdue) in the first round, and S Bryan Cook (Cincinnati) in the second round. Rookie WR Skyy Moore (Western Michigan) will also get an opportunity right away. 

"With the new kids, we're throwing them right in and giving them a chance to see what the NFL is all about," head coach Andy Reid told Chiefs.com reporter Matt McMullen during the first week of Organized Team Activities (OTA’s.) "They've had some good plays, and some plays they need to work on, but it looks like they have great potential.” 

The schedule is a beast to say the least. Most pundits are bullish on the entire AFC West’s playoff chances. The Chiefs also get defending division winners in the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati and the Tennessee Titans in addition to crossing over with the NFC West. 

PICK: Under 10.5 wins

DimersBOT: In our model's 10,000 simulations of the upcoming NFL season, the Chiefs averaged 10.19 wins per year. So, our data team backs the writer's eye test on this one. There's just too many holes on this team and the schedule is rough. 

Kansas City Chiefs X-Factors - JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WRs

TE Travis Kelce (92 receptions, nine TDs) will surely be the main target in the passing game, but Mecole Hardman has been inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and the Chiefs need to hit on at least one of their free-agent additions to not suffer a major drop-off from the Hill trade and departures of Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson.  

KINGDOM COVERAGE

JuJu Smith-Schuster talks about always being on the move while catching from Patrick Mahomes

"Pat, when it gets to the scrambling part, that's where it's like, okay he can throw the ball across the field ... we're always taught to stay on the move" pic.twitter.com/KWundtzUYP

— Sports Radio 810 WHB (@SportsRadio810) June 14, 2022

Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl 57 Chances

The talent level on the roster and recent history suggests it’ll be impossible to find any tempting value betting the Chiefs to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. On the flip side, it’s also hard to say Mahomes & Co. is a bad investment. 

Half of the Chiefs wins in the entire super bowl era came in the last 4 years. pic.twitter.com/hliCvZLeDi

— Mark B (@butler829) June 14, 2022

DimersBOT: If the odds were a bit better here, it might have been worth a shot because of Mahomes' ability and Reid's remarkable offensive mind. However, you can do better than backing Kansas City if you're looking to place a futures bet. 

Kansas City Chiefs 2022 Schedule 

• September 11, 2022 - at Arizona Cardinals
• September 15, 2022 - Los Angeles Chargers
• September 25, 2022 - at Indianapolis Colts
• October 2, 2022 - at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• October 10, 2022 - Las Vegas Raiders
• October 16, 2022 - Buffalo Bills
• October 23, 2022 - at San Francisco 49ers
• November 6, 2022 - Tennessee Titans
• November 13, 2022 - Jacksonville Jaguars
• November 20, 2022 - at Los Angeles Chargers
• November 27, 2022 - at Los Angeles Rams
• December 4, 2022 - at Cincinnati Bengals
• December 11, 2022 - at Denver Broncos
• December 18, 2022 - at Houston Texans
• December 24, 2022 - Seattle Seahawks
• January 1, 2023 - Denver Broncos
• January 8, 2023 - at Las Vegas Raiders