Joel Embiid Points Prediction in Debut for 76ers: Projections and Best Props for Star's Return

After a rocky start to the season that sees the team at just 2-7 and one of the worst records in the NBA, the Philadelphia 76ers will welcome seven-time All Star Joel Embiid back to the starting lineup for tonight's NBA Cup group stage game vs. the New York Knicks and we have our points predictions for the star.

A nagging knee injury kept Embiid out of the first six games of the season, while he was was suspended for the following three games by the NBA for shoving Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes in a media session.

In spite of the slow start, our model gives the 76ers a chance to turn it around, with the fourth-best chance to win the Eastern Conference at 7.8%, which isn't too far off from the 9% implied by their odds of +1000, however it's down from our 10.4% probability last week.

Not the start these teams had in mind 😳

Who's more likely to make a legitimate postseason push?

Full NBA futures predictions: https://t.co/xQdO0tymED pic.twitter.com/q6QhmkWWd4

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) November 7, 2024

Before tonight's NBA Cup gets started, let's look at how Joel Embiid may perform in his first regular season action of the 2024-25 season and any NBA Best Bets worth making based off our projections.

Joel Embiid To Make Season Debut vs. New York Knicks

Sorely in need of help as they look to finally deploy their "big three" of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and offseason acquisition Paul George,  the Sixers hope to begin their season turnaround in tonight's NBA Cup group stage game vs. the Knicks.

“It’s the right step in the right direction we’re trying to get to,” Sixers forward Caleb Martin said on Tuesday regarding Embiid's impending return. “Obviously, excited to have someone like him back to our team.”

Will Embiid be rusty after not playing an NBA game since last season? He did play during the Paris Olympics this past summer, so he's had some competitive play since the end of the Sixers' playoff run last season. He also gets the benefit of not returning immediately after his injury, as he served his three-game suspension as well.

He's officially off the injury report, so he should be a full go.

Our Projections for Joel Embiid vs. the New York Knicks

It's a good time for Embiid to return as the NBA Cup tips off tonight with the first group stage games. The competition should be dialed up if last year's In-Season tournament serves as any indication and Embiid will likely want to make a statement after missing the first three weeks.

Embiid has also been open about his intent to not play any back-to-backs this year and with the 76ers back in action tomorrow night vs. the Cavaliers, he should come to play tonight vs. the Knicks.

Here's how we project Embiid to perform, compared our statistical projections from our Knicks vs. 76ers simulations, to the sportsbooks' posted lines and odds:

• 28 Points (O/U 24.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
• 7 Rebounds (O/U 8.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
• 5 Assists (O/U 4.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Over the past three seasons, Embiid has averaged 32.8 PTS, 4.7 AST, 10.9 REB, so we're projecting him for a little bit under his usual output, except for his assists which we've got right on target.  We're projecting him to go over his points and assists lines, but under his rebounds line.

🏀 MORE: Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Betting Preview

Best Joel Embiid Props to Bet on Tuesday

Joel Embiid Points

At a projection of 28 points, our model suggest to take the over on Joel Embiid's points prop, set at 24.5 on most sportsbooks.

Joel Embiid Rebounds

Our projection for Embiid's rebounds is under his sportsbook line of 8.5, suggesting a fade on his board crashing abilities tonight against a Knicks team allowing the third-fewest rebounds to centers. 

Joel Embiid Assists

The Knicks sit in the middle of the pack in terms of assists allowed by centers and with prolific scorers like Tyrese Maxey and Paul George available to knock down shots, Embiid could find himself dishing out dimes tonight.

Joel Embiid First Basket

One of our most likely first basket scorers tonight, Joel Embiid sits within our Top 5 overall probabilities across all games, currently with a 16.0% probability of scoring the first basket in 76ers vs. Knicks. This represents fair odds of +525, so if you can find Embiid at that price or better, he's a bet according to our model. View all of our NBA First Basket data here.

These two Joel Embiid props come with value in tonight's game.

Dimers' Predictions for 76ers vs. Knicks on Tuesday, November 12

76ers vs. Knicks: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

• Teams: Knicks vs. 76ers
• Date: Tuesday, November 12, 2024
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Venue: Wells Fargo Center

Current Betting Odds

• Spread: Knicks favored at -2.5
• Total (Over/Under): 212.5
• Moneyline Odds: Knicks -150, 76ers +134

According to Dimers, the Moneyline, Spread, and Total predictions for the game are:

• Moneyline: The 76ers have a 42% moneyline probability
• Spread: The 76ers have a 52.2% probability to cover the 2.5-point spread
• Total: The game total is projected to go over 212.5 points with a 51.8% probability

For more analysis on this NBA Cup group stage matchup, Ryan Leaver breaks down every betting angle of 76ers vs. Knicks

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