Immediate Gambling Lessons We Can Take Out of the Home Run Derby

This year's MLB Home Run Derby is officially done with Juan Soto of the Nationals (at least for now) taking out the crown by beating Julio Rodriguez on Monday night, at odds of +650.

And while most people will forget the events of the night instantly, we thought we'd put together some learnings from the Derby to apply to our betting strategies for next year's edition. So read this and then bookmark it for next year, because failing to prepare is preparing to fail.

Here are our immediate gambling lessons from the 2022 MLB Home Run Derby:

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It’s a Novelty Event, but It’s Bettable

Contests such as the Home Run Derby could fall into the category among bettors as a "Mickey Mouse Event", but after watching Monday's Derby, it's hard to say that this isn't a legitimate competition among guys who want to win. The MLB do a great job of incentivizing players with an overall prize pool of $2.5 million, $1 million of that going to Soto for claiming his first Derby title after falling short last year against Pete Alonso.

For reference, rookie Julio Rodriguez's annual salary this year is just $700,000, according to Spotrac. He had a chance to make more than his entire year's salary if he won. When you're betting on something like this, you want the combatants to care, and these players showed that they definitely do.

Pete Alonso Is Hurting, Man

Speaking of people that care, Pete Alonso cared. I mean, he really cared. Looking for his third straight crown, the pre-Derby favorite at odds of +185 paraded around Dodger Stadium like a man on a mission. There were the posts of him working out in the gym before his first round matchup against Ronald Acuna Jr, and then there was vision of him in a mediative-like state before heading out to try and match the mammoth score Julio Rodriguez was in the process of putting up that would eventually vanquish any chance he had of a hat-trick.

Lesson is: Pete Alonso is going to throw absolutely everything he can at redemption next year. I am already scared about the prospect of an angry Polar Bear in Seattle in 2023. 

Disregard the Seedings

We've seen this a couple of years running now. Just because a guy has hit a ton of dingers in the regular seeding to obtain a high seeding, doesn't mean he knows how to thrive in the format of a Home Run Derby. Kyle Schwarber (+300 pre-Derby), just like Shohei Ohtani in 2021, went into the Derby with the No. 1 seeding as the man who hit the most home runs among all participants. Like Ohtani, Schwarber was disappointing, losing to Albert Pujols in the first round. Experience matters in these things, and that was especially true with last year's finalist in Soto coming out as the champ as the No. 4 seed.

Julio Rodriguez Is a Force

Rookie Mariner Julio Rodriguez announced himself to the MLB world on Monday night with a captivating performance that will put his name into the ring to claim a title within the next few years. As we outlined in our feature piece on Rodriguez, he has the type of power that puts him above most the league when it comes to hitting. He got tired in the final round, but he'll be someone worth betting on next year.

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