How to Build Home Run Parlays like the Dimers Pro Team

It’s no secret we love betting on home runs here at Dimers. That’s not exactly a hot take as once the MLB season arrives, home runs are by far the most popular plays across Gambling Twitter/X.

As part of our regular content offerings using our Dimers Pro insights, we build daily Round Robin parlays with our favorite home run props, leading to some big wins over the past two seasons, hitting two x4 Parlays in 2023 and already numerous x2s and a x3 this year. You can read our detailed guide into Round Robin strategy here, and it's not exclusive to baseball!

While we spin these up for you, the real power within Dimers Pro is digging into our daily offerings and finding which of our MLB Best Bets you like. All we do is highlight what stands out to us, but on days where we have dozens of home run props (sometimes over 50), there are sure to be plenty of opportunities lurking in our top edges that we don’t surface across our channels, especially if you utilize Dimers' Best Sportsbooks section to maximize your reach.

So, to give you a little insight into how we’re constructing our parlays using Dimers Pro, we’ll also show you our process and the additional factors most important to us when betting on home runs, so you can learn how to identify these same profitable betting opportunities all on your own for less than $1 per day with Dimers Pro.

Identify Your Target Games

The first step in building a profitable home run parlay is to identify which games you want to focus on. To do this, we use resources beyond our own. Despite the Dimers Pro algorithms factoring in 1000s of different data points to produce its predictions, being able to individually assess a couple of the key stats is particularly helpful – namely pitcher statistics and weather.

We believe these are the most impactful in our research, as strong winds in one direction or the other can make the difference in a well-hit ball leaving the yard or coming up just short.

Pitching statistics can reveal critical information about the guys toeing the rubber on any given day. Advanced stats like Barrel %, Exit Velocity, and others can reveal whether or not you’re looking at a pitcher who is vulnerable to home runs. As the season progresses, numbers like HR/9, expected Home Runs and even ballpark data become more reliable with larger sample sizes. All of this data is factored in to the Dimers MLB model, but there’s no substitute for the human eye when it comes to the decision making process.

Resources like Ballpark Pal, Statcast and even MLB’s own record keeping are important to have in your back pocket and can provide daily insights into these factors.

If you can find games that fit within both a good matchup and favorable weather, those are the ones you want to target.

We limit our round robins to maximum of five games (legs) because beyond that, the stake becomes too large for the risk.

Use Dimers Pro to Find the Most Likely Home Run Hitters

Once you’ve narrowed down your games, you’re ready to find your home run targets.

The simplest way to do this is to open Dimers Pro’s Best MLB Props, filter by Home Runs only and then look for the highest probability sluggers.

While you’re likely to find plenty of value on longer odds guys at lower percentages, when building parlays, we find ourselves more primarily concerned with high probabilities rather than high value. That doesn’t mean we’ll overpay for home run props, but when trying to hit a big one, a 20% HR hitter is more reliable than taking a swing on a 10% HR hitter. After all, the goal is to hit more than 1 so if we do that, the payouts are already significant.

If their probabilities are similar, we like to select 2-3 players per game as potential targets and then narrow those down into our lock-in guys for the Round Robin.

Pick Your Home Run Parlay Props

Now we get into the nitty gritty stuff. We mentioned pitcher statistics earlier as preliminary factor, but now we’re going deeper.

Batter vs. pitcher matchup history, lefty/righty splits, home run tendencies and recent form all come into play for our final step.

We’re looking at how often someone like Aaron Judge hits a home run off Kevin Gausman, or which side of the park Gunnar Henderson likes to hit his home runs. Even pitch type comes into play – which pitches do certain players hit their home runs off of, and what are today’s pitchers typically throwing?

As far as matchups are concerned, player splits are a huge factor. You might see a matchup with a pitcher who gives up a ton of home runs, but a closer look at his stats might reveal that he never gives up homers to lefties. Likewise, you might see a batter with appealing home run odds but you discover that they have a tough time crushing the ball against a right-handed pitcher.

We use these head-to-head factors to narrow down our candidates into just one per game. And sometimes, even after all the research and cross-examination, we still have to make a choice between two guys. When that happens, we typically go with the best value. If meet all our criteria but one is +400 and the other is +475, we’ll take those better odds as the tiebreaker.

Never Miss a Prop With Dimers Pro

This may seem like information overload but it’s a streamlined and reliable system to use in order to find consistency over time. Home Runs are a high-variance play; you can make the perfect read and watch Juan Soto hit one off the top of the wall, mere inches from a dinger. This is what makes betting inherently risky and why we have to do everything we can to give ourselves an edge over the books. Don’t forget that a 20% probability, while very strong, means there’s an 80% probability of the opposite result.

Use our method or experiment and find a process that works for you. Evaluate your results, adjust when necessary and don’t overreact to negative results!

See you on the frontlines!

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.