How to Bet on Which Coach or Manager will be Fired

Enterprising bettors can put their money on which managers and coaches will be relieved of their duties next. 

Speculating based on a team’s record is easy enough, but it’s often a background consideration. Other issues like a manager’s contractual status, whether the team is underachieving in obvious or understated ways, or if there is difference of opinion with the front office can be the determinative factor. A general manager or owner might just have a quick trigger.

Dimers.com contributor Paul Lebowitz examines which are the likely candidates to get the axe next.

It’s the last week of June and already two highly decorated veteran managers – Joe Maddon (pictured) and Joe Girardi – have been fired. 

Both situations were relatively clear-cut. 

Maddon was in the final year of his contract and after a hot start, the Angels went into a spiral, losing 14 straight. Maddon was fired after the 12th of those 14 losses. 

Girardi was also in the final year of his contract, the Phillies were struggling and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski did not hire him. 

He, too, was dismissed.

Which Manager or Coach Could be Sacked Next?

There are several whose status is shaky or are facing calls to make a change.

Don Mattingly

Marlins manager Don Mattingly is in the last year of his contract. Derek Jeter departing the organization prior to the season cost Mattingly a primary ally. The Marlins had relatively high preseason expectations with a deep young starting rotation and costly offseason acquisitions Jorge Soler, Avisail Garcia and Jacob Stallings.

"You hate to see it in the ninth like that."

Don Mattingly talks about some of the missed calls in Saturday's game, the start from Braxton Garrett and more after the @Marlins loss to the Mets. #MakeItMiami pic.twitter.com/LyrZlm46Cx

— Bally Sports Florida: Marlins (@BallyMarlins) June 18, 2022

There are reported problems behind the scenes, specifically with flashy second baseman Jazz Chisholm. They’re double-digits behind the Mets and flagging. Given the Marlins’ frugality and that principal owner Bruce Sherman inheriting Mattingly, change might be on the horizon.  

Mike Matheny

The Royals have been in rebuild mode for five years and Mike Matheny came with a good pedigree from his time managing the cross-state Cardinals. Still, his old-school methods and harsh treatment of young players sowed his downfall in St. Louis and he hasn’t adapted. The team has not advanced nor does it appear that Matheny has evolved.

Since Mike Matheny was fired on July 14, the Cardinals have the best record in the National League (22-11). pic.twitter.com/6W4TlBAy67

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 21, 2018

The Royals put forth the impression that they intended to try and win in 2022 by signing Zack Greinke to lead a rising young pitching staff. They have a veteran-laden offense with Carlos Santana, Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi and Salvador Perez, but it’s not meshing. Matheny has a contract option for 2023 and the easiest thing for them to flip the script might be a manager who isn’t so tightly wound. 

Tony La Russa

White Sox manager Tony La Russa is the most complex case. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf hired him to return to his first managerial home in part because he always lamented allowing then-GM Hawk Harrelson to fire La Russa in 1986. His strategies have bordered on the preposterous, culminating with his intentional walk of Dodgers shortstop Trea Turner on a 1-2 count only to have Max Muncy homer to blow the game open.

If the #WhiteSox do replace Tony La Russa because he retires again (it is not likely he is getting fired), #Changethegame history says they will stay with the Sox family. Here are 9 candidates (2 for interim if TLR steps away in season)https://t.co/omG5lGzMo1

— Todd Welter (@toddjdub) June 27, 2022

Reinsdorf hiring La Russa was questionable in part because La Russa hadn’t managed in 10 years, was known as inflexible with front office analytics and the objective reality of him being 77. To be fair, the players have resolutely defended him and his strategic missteps are far from the reason the White Sox are floundering. It might be that they’re simply not as good as projected and it doesn’t matter who the manager is. 

Buster Olney says part of the reason Tony La Russa is the White Sox manager is because owner Jerry Reinsdorf felt bad about firing him almost 40 years ago pic.twitter.com/twGGqtsLLH

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 13, 2022

Billionaires like Reinsdorf are loath to admit mistakes and when they do and try to rectify them, they’re not going to repeat the same mistake they made before even if it’s not a mistake the second time. It’s nearly impossible to envision Reinsdorf firing La Russa again. 

How to Decide Which Coach or Manager Will be Sacked Next

To decide how to wager, this information is important. But it also helps to assess history and behaviors. Some managers dare the team to fire them if they’re not given an extension or say they’re being “disrespected.” Don Zimmer pulled that off with the Cubs in 1991. He was fired a year and a half after leading the Cubs to a surprising division title. 

Islanders president and general manager Lou Lamoriello never met a coach he wouldn’t fire, making 18 coaching changes – twice going behind the bench himself – in his nearly three decades running the Devils. He recently fired Stanley Cup-winning coach Barry Trotz citing the need for a “new voice.”

Stanley Cup-winning coach and Winnipeg native Barry Trotz won't pursue an NHL coaching jobhttps://t.co/7EwfGrBbuZ

— Hockey Night in Canada (@hockeynight) June 27, 2022

The current template in sports is for the manager or coach to be labeled a “partner” with the front office reducing the number of firings from what they once were. That same characterization could lead to their disposability.

For an effective bet on a personnel decision, various aspects must be considered. 

For people who know owners’ and general managers’ histories, are cognizant of contract status and know the personality of said manager or coach, it’s possible to make an educated guess as to who might be fired and profit from the fact that managers and coaches, no matter who they are, will inevitably face the ax.