How to Bet on Shohei Ohtani as a Massive American League MVP Favorite

The year of Shohei Ohtani continues. Seemingly performing otherworldly feats of professional baseball on a nightly basis, there is no athlete in American sports who is more captivating right now. We’ve never even seen a player in our lifetimes who dominates the sport in the way that Ohtani does. A true two-way player, batting on a nightly basis and pitching as the ace in the starting rotation, we’re witnessing history in the making.

Much like the generations of NFL fans who watched as Tom Brady became the GOAT before their very eyes, we’re seeing the rise of a phenom who transcends the thought of what a baseball player can be. Will we look back and say we watched Shohei Ohtani become the greatest baseball player of all time? It remains to be seen, but if this season (and recent history) are any indication, it’s certainly looking like it.

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But enough waxing poetic about “Sho-time,” what we want to do is figure out how to make money off of Ohtani’s greatness; we are in the business of betting on sports, after all! Let’s break down Ohtani’s season and stats in the month of June to figure out where we can generate some bankroll.

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Ohtani is -1450 to win AL MVP

We told you at the start of June that a sound betting strategy would be to parlay Shohei Ohtani to win the AL MVP with all your bets. He was -145 at the time with any other player to win MVP at +114. Now, he’s -1450 and any other player is +700. This is virtually unheard of for a player award at this point in the season. Even his odds of -145 were eye-raising, given we were just two months into the season and anything could truly happen. So, what changed in just three weeks?

For starters, he went from having the second-most home runs in the American League to having the most in all of MLB. He’s up to 28 home runs on the year, five more than the next player in the AL (Luis Robert – 23). He’s smacked 13 in June with two days left to go, including a torrid stretch where he donged 8 dingers in 11 games.

As a hitter, he leads the American League in OPS, SLG, HR and is no lower than third in Hits, RBI and OBP. As a pitcher, he has the lowest opponent batting average at just .180 and has the second-most strikeouts. -1450 is an unplayable number no matter how you slice it, so the MVP market is dried up. Let’s look at some others.

Ohtani Prop Bets

Likely the most popular way to bet on Ohtani right now is via the home run or any of his other props as a hitter or a pitcher.

Home Runs – Starting with the obvious, Shohei Ohtani to Hit a HR is one of the most popular props right now. And while he’s on as much of a tear as anyone with 13 homers in June, his hot streak is taking a serious axe to his odds, slashing his home run price down to +240 or lower. Those are great odds for a lot of bets, but not so much for a home run. Other home run markets include 2+ home runs (done so three times) or to hit the first home run (six times). Your best option could be to parlay an Ohtani home run with an Angels win or another correlating bet to get a better payout.

Hits and RBIs – If you want to bet on Ohtani’s hits, you have basically two options: use 1+ hit as a parlay piece because his odds are astronomically short (-270 on FanDuel today) or bet 2+ hits at a more appealing price in the realm of +200. He’s managed 2 or more hits in 10 of 25 games in June. While that’s only a 40% hit rate, the plus-money odds would have turned you a profit over the course of the month if you bet it every game.

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Similarly, Ohtani has recorded at least one RBI in 15 of 25 games in June, and at least 2 in nine of them. Again, due to the hit rate and plus-money nature of these plays (+130 for 1+ RBI and +340 for 2+ RBI), you would again have turned a solid profit by simply betting Ohtani to record at least one RBI in every game.

Pitching Props – Ohtani’s strikeout prop will usually be no lower than 7.5 and for a guy in his form, you’re likely to run into 8.5. If the odds aren’t appealing at his standard Over, consider taking an alternate line at double-digits for some sweet plus money, a mark he’s reached four times in his last ten starts. Similarly, consider his Outs Recorded market if the number is right. Aside from a rain delay-shortened start, Ohtani has cleared Over 17.5 outs recorded all but twice this season.

Angels to win the American League (+2000) on FanDuel

Looking at a futures market that doesn’t involve a -1450 favorite, we can find some value in the Angels to win the American League. Currently tied for second place with the Astros, the Angels trail the Rangers by six games in the division. It’s early still and anything can happen, but a six-game deficit against arguably the best team in baseball is a tall ask.

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Instead, look at the Angels to make the World Series if you’re interested in getting some skin in the game with Los Angeles. With just a 9% chance to win the AL West according to our model, their division odds of +800 should be closer to +1000 to make the price fair. At a 4% chance to win the American League, however, their odds of +2000 are more in line with their projection.

Additionally, the Angels can make it to the American League Championship Series by way of a wild card, rather than win the division which would require them to have the best record. And if you think they make it that far, why not take a lunch money flier on them to win it all at +5000 and get Shohei his first MLB title?

Angels to Make the Playoffs (+170) on DraftKings

Another futures market to look at is whether or not the Angels make the postseason. As it stands, they’re a half-game behind the third Wild Card spot, occupied by the Blue Jays at the time of this writing, and one full game behind the Yankees for the second. Los Angeles has the second-highest run differential by any team in the Wild Card hunt, behind only their division rivals, Houston.

At +170, this is solid value for a team that could realistically be sitting in a Wild Card spot by the time Thursday’s games wrap up. With the question of “what do we do with Shohei” looming over their heads, the Angels’ number one priority is being a contender.

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