NFL Best Bets: How to Bet on NFL Week 1 with Dimers Pro

The NFL is back and already dominated by intriguing headlines. Offseason storylines come to fruition as all 32 teams begin their quest for the ultimate goal, hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.

With so much hype around the weekly NFL schedule, it can be hard to cut through the noise and find out just exactly how you should be betting on these key moments, if at all.

Aided by the power of Dimers Pro, we'll be looking at these storylines each week through the betting lens and how you can use our exclusive NFL data to turn a profit.

Between our NFL Best Bets, NFL player prop picks, best parlay bets, NFL betting trends and futures projections, you'll always have a leg up on the books with Dimers Pro, available for less than $1/day.

And if you happen to find yourself reading this article before the end of Week 1, you can get yourself a full 12 months of Dimers Pro for the price of 6 - a no-brainer deal that saves you $125.

Without further ado, let's dig into Week 1 of the NFL.

QB Carousel - Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, & Aaron Rodgers

It's not new - every season we see quarterbacks come and go, from rookies and vets to journeymen.

Every once in a while, though, we see some very established names switch sides, often at the back end of their career. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan are a few names that come to mind and we're seeing it again with the next generation of vets.

Russell Wilson joins his third team, the Steelers, after a disappointing mid-career trip to Denver. Kirk Cousins also joins his third squad with hopes to juice up the Falcons' skill-position players. And Aaron Rodgers looks to truly debut with the Jets and last longer than 4 plays into the season.

Jets QB Aaron Rodgers

As if fate herself set the schedule, we get Russell Wilson vs. Kirk Cousins in Week 1 when the Steelers head to Atlanta as 3.5-point favorites. Our model doesn't project a huge game from Russ with under 200 passing yards, but does like the Steelers to cover the spread at a 59% probability, identifying value in their -112 odds on DraftKings. This is of course, provided he suits up. Russ is currently questionable after experiencing some calf tightness in practice this week.

Kirk Cousins gets some favor from the model as well, with the Falcons seeing a 62% win probability and to the delight of some fantasy managers, a 71-yard and 40% TD projection for WR Drake London.

Aaron Rodgers will head to Santa Clara for Monday Night Football against a top Super Bowl contender in the 49ers. Unfortunately for Rodgers, the BOT does not like the Jets' chances in Week 1. He gets a modest 214 passing yard projection with the 49ers projected to cover the 4.5-point spread. However, we do give the Jets a 34%  upset probability, though it will be difficult to find a favorable price (+200 or better).

No. 1 Picks Struggle in Week 1

The transition from college to the NFL rarely comes easy, even for elite prospects with clear paths to success. In fact, the last rookie quarterback to be drafted No. 1 overall and win their win Week 1 debut was David Carr in 2022, hilariously over the Cowboys. Now, Caleb Williams joins the ranks.

Since 2022, 15 quarterbacks have been drafted first overall with nine of them debuting in Week 1 of that season. See the QB, final score and their TD:INT line below:

• 2023: Bryce Young (Panthers) at Atlanta - 10-24 (1 TD, 2 INT)
• 2021: Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) at Houston - 21-37 (3 TD, 3 INT)
• 2020: Joe Burrow (Bengals) vs Chargers  - 13-16 (0 TD, 1 INT)
• 2019: Kyler Murray (Cardinals) vs Lions - 27-27 (2 TD, 1 INT)
• 2015: Jameis Winston (Bucs) vs Titans  - 14-42 (2 TD, 2 INT)
• 2012: Andrew Luck (Colts) @ Bears - 21-41 (1 TD, 3 INT)
• 2011: Cam Newton (Panthers) @ Cardinals - 21-28 (2 TDs, 1 INT)
• 2010: Sam Bradford (Rams) vs Cardinals - 13-17 (1 TD, 3 INT)
• 2009: Matthew Stafford (Lions) @ Saints  -27-45 (0 TD, 3 INT)

Now, of course the No. 1 overall pick is usually joining a bad team so immediate success is rarely expected. This year, it's Caleb Williams' turn. Here's how DimersBOT projects the Bears' rookie starter in Week 1:

• 219 Passing Yards
• 20 Rushing yards
• 20% Anytime TD Probability
• 61% Win Probability

Not too shabby for a rook, though how he gels with his offense will tell the full story. We project WR DJ Moore for 70 yards and a 35% TD probability and fellow rookies Rome Odunze for 56 receiving yards and 1 29% chance to score.

Colts' Week 1 Woes

It's been a tough start to the season for the Colts for a long time now. Over the past 10 years, they're winless in Week 1. They hold an 0-9-1 record in season openers in that span.

Since Andrew Luck's abrupt retirement, the Colts have been chasing their next franchise QB. They had some stopgap options with Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan, a brief Carson Wentz experiment, and now turn to Anthony Richardson in his second season.

After his rookie campaign was cut short due to injury, Richardson is the Colts' next chance at opening the season with a win.

In our Colts vs. Texans betting preview, we see the Colts with a 40% win probability, down from 43.0% earlier this week. We project Richardson for 235 total yards with a strong 47% TD probability. While a cover of the 2.5-point spread is more likely with a 44% probability, it looks like it could be 11 years with a first week win for Indianapolis.

CeeDee Holds Out, Cowboys Fans Hold Back Hope

One of many holdouts this season, CeeDee Lamb didn't show up to Cowboys camp until last week when he signed a 4-year megadeal worth $136M. 

Now, all eyes will be on how he fares after missing out on the preseason. Cowboys fans may remember when Dez Bryant held out of camp and proceeded to hurt his foot early in the season, dooming them to a year without their top wideout.

A year without CeeDee would spell disaster for this team. He draws a 79-yard projection with a 38% TD probability in Week 1, which would make most fantasy managers happy, but it doesn't look like it will translate to success for Dallas.

They get just a 41% win probability against the Cleveland Browns in the Dawg Pound and will need a little luck to cover the 2.5 points, as we have it split 50/50.

You can read our full Cowboys vs. Browns betting preview here.

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2024-25 Season

• 2024-25 Preseason Preview: Dimers' early looks at Win Totals and Playoff odds
• NFL Week 1 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 1 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.